Any idea what price Pfizer would pay per share for Wyeth

If they close today, then the price will the closing price at the end
of the today.

Not going to pay a premium for then?

If they do, they should close it anytime (sooner), but I don't think
so.

If you were Pfizer, would you pay more than the market, does it make
sense?

No but if Wyeth doesn't want to sell/merge then they would be forced
to pay up to get the company
.

what do you think will happen to their merger discussions with crucell?

I think crucell will still be bought I is a avaluable asset they want
it i think

Reuters article says $60 billion. Google says there are 1.33 billion
Wyeth shares outstanding.

60 billion/1.33 billion

$45.11 per share.

wsj says the price is starting at $50.

I would assume it to be over $45 and no more than $50. I think $50 is
a great price. Higher than 52 week high, makes everyone happy.

Check out my blog for recent blog on Wyeth and PFE: www.optionmaestro.com

Looks like it will be $50.19 about a 15% premium from Fridays close

right, but since some of that will be in Pfizer stock, can Wyeth
itself be expected to go to $50?

NY Times reports that Pfizer will pay $33 in cash and .985 shares of
Pfizer for every share of Wyeth. Pfizer hasn't done anything in years
(and will now likely halve their dividend), so Wyeth folks may want to
dump it and buy something else...

So does that mean the price equation for Wyeth is = $33+ 0.985 x
market price of Pfizer?

If that is so, Wyeth is worth $47.77 if Pfizer is $15

and $48.76 if Pfizer is $16

$49.25 if Pfizer is $16.25

cool

wow

even if Pfizer goes to $14 , the price Wyeth would get is $46.79

Obviously the market has priced Wyeth way too low at this moment.

Guys I sense arbitrage here.

It also depends on how you price the risk that something could go
wrong between now and the closing date, which is not for several
months.

It also depends on how you price the risk that something could go
wrong between now and the closing date, which is not for several
months.

hmm that's right. I agree.

How does one quantify risk?

What I did was to quantify the various price scenarios of Pfizer and
Wyeth.

The market just got gripped by fear. It's better to do a sensitivity
analysis rather than let fear do the risk quantification.

I just wonder how the agreement of 0.985 share swap was determined.
However since Wyeth need not spend money on acquisition of Crucell but
instead was paid $33 and a 15% premium, I reckoned it's got a fair
deal.

As a general question, not just related to Wyeth, but when the
purchasing company declares a price per share for another company, is
it not usual for the price per share to increase to the declared
price? I last saw it during the Mars/Hershey take over where the price
jumped up and share holders made money. Since WSJ and wyeth are
contemplating $45+ per share, would now be a good time to purchase and
wait for a jump in price? Or is the share overvalued and will Pfizer
name a lower price, driving down the price?

Very good question I was under the impression it went to the buy out
price but I have no idea what is going on here. It always seem like
the stock jumps to the buyout price but in this case it didn't so it
is interesting. Anyone know why??? Help us out.

It only equals the buyout price when the deal goes through, which I
read is "late in the 3rd quarter or in the 4th qtr". Until then the
buyout price will always be a little or a lot more than the price of
the day. Depends on how uncertain people are day by day.

There is an interesting phenomena now with the share price of Wyeth.
With the merger proposal of $33+.985* PFE, essentially the long
position on Wyeth is that its shares should be priced as a derivative
of Pfizer's current market price.

Disclosure:  I'm long on Wyeth (with a careful eye on PFE's price).

So what does that mean?? We want PFE to go up or down?? I don't get
it? I'm long WYE what should my stop be?

You want PFE to go up.

If PFE goes up, does WYE's current price per share go up too?