On Nov 4, 11:05 am, big <myemailadd...@gmail.com> wrote:

I personally believe it will run higher the rest of the week.  Look,
it ran up 15% yesterday, and is only down 6% today.  (Geez ONLY 6%.
For a normal stock those are huge moves.)

Start making your bear bets on this next week.

On Nov 4, 11:25 am, Trey Knox <itst...@gmail.com> wrote:

And note, that when George says more conservative he only means in
outlay of cash risked.  The rewards will actually be far greater per
dollar risked with puts if AIG goes down.  AND you don't risk the
ridiculous margin associated with shorting.  You can't lose more than
your initial investment with puts but you sure can be "creamed" with
shorting.

On Nov 4, 1:30 pm, tmax <timerd...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Nov 4, 4:58 pm, Trey Knox <itst...@gmail.com> wrote:

Credit Rally Likely Buoyed AIG's Results

By SERENA NG
Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
quarter results.

The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
year.

Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
week that hint at how AIG performed.

In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York and AIG.

That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
unit are moderating.

Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
CreditSights.

Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

Write to Serena Ng at serena...@wsj.com