> I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> back to $40's, I tell you why:

> AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings

> > Isn't that interesting now....Daytraders are setting up a "double-
> > dip"  betcha its going back to $40 for sure.

> > I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> > back to $40's, I tell you why:

> > AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> > billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> > readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> > the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> > the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> > solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings

> It should be $65

> On Nov 4, 1:25 pm, Carlos Mena <c.a.menap...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I bought at $44,5, and i going to keep holding for at least 1 or 2
> > years, hoping that the stock rise to 100 or 120 $ in this range time...

> I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> back to $40's, I tell you why:

> AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings

> However, when dealing with AIG the trend is more important than co-
> incidences, or even lucky numbers.

> On Nov 4, 1:14 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Isn't that interesting now....Daytraders are setting up a "double-
> > dip"  betcha its going back to $40 for sure.

> > I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> > back to $40's, I tell you why:

> > AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> > billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> > readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> > the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> > the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> > solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings

> On Nov 4, 2:18 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > Good observation regarding price and time.

> > However, when dealing with AIG the trend is more important than co-
> > incidences, or even lucky numbers.

> > On Nov 4, 1:14 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Isn't that interesting now....Daytraders are setting up a "double-
> > > dip"  betcha its going back to $40 for sure.

> > > I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> > > back to $40's, I tell you why:

> > > AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> > > billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> > > readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> > > the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> > > the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> > > solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings"

> > I bought call options when the stock was at @39 yesterday and wanted
> > to sell when it reached $40, but the program told me that it would
> > have been my 4th day trade in 5 business days, so I had to hold. Now I
> > am down very substantially, but I think I will hold rather than cut my
> > losses - I expect the earnings to be good and to provide a boost to
> > the share price and thus options price on Friday and there might even
> > be an upside in the run-up to earnings tomorrow.

> then why don't you pick up some more now and wait for $40 if you are
> expecting good results

> Next, you don't want to hold these more than a day or two.  All of
> AIGs options have a huge amount of extrinsic value.  If you hold more
> than a few days, you will have a very difficult time getting back to
> even, unless share price really runs your way fast.  Even way in the
> money, the time value is a killer in AIG options.

> I don't know what contract you are in, but if you hold more than two
> days or so, you will probably find you are still a loser even with a
> return to share price $40.

> I've been messing with AIG options since the reverse split made it
> practical.  They can be tricky because the extrinsic value grows and
> shrinks with the extreme volatility of this stock.  On flat days,
> calls and puts will both lose value.

> On Nov 4, 2:48 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I bought call options when the stock was at @39 yesterday and wanted
> > to sell when it reached $40, but the program told me that it would
> > have been my 4th day trade in 5 business days, so I had to hold. Now I
> > am down very substantially, but I think I will hold rather than cut my
> > losses - I expect the earnings to be good and to provide a boost to
> > the share price and thus options price on Friday and there might even
> > be an upside in the run-up to earnings tomorrow.

> Next, you don't want to hold these more than a day or two.  All of
> AIGs options have a huge amount of extrinsic value.  If you hold more
> than a few days, you will have a very difficult time getting back to
> even, unless share price really runs your way fast.  Even way in the
> money, the time value is a killer in AIG options.

> I don't know what contract you are in, but if you hold more than two
> days or so, you will probably find you are still a loser even with a
> return to share price $40.

> I've been messing with AIG options since the reverse split made it
> practical.  They can be tricky because the extrinsic value grows and
> shrinks with the extreme volatility of this stock.  On flat days,
> calls and puts will both lose value.

> On Nov 4, 2:48 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I bought call options when the stock was at @39 yesterday and wanted
> > to sell when it reached $40, but the program told me that it would
> > have been my 4th day trade in 5 business days, so I had to hold. Now I
> > am down very substantially, but I think I will hold rather than cut my
> > losses - I expect the earnings to be good and to provide a boost to
> > the share price and thus options price on Friday and there might even
> > be an upside in the run-up to earnings tomorrow.- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> On Nov 4, 2:18 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > Good observation regarding price and time.

> > However, when dealing with AIG the trend is more important than co-
> > incidences, or even lucky numbers.

> > On Nov 4, 1:14 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Isn't that interesting now....Daytraders are setting up a "double-
> > > dip"  betcha its going back to $40 for sure.

> > > I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> > > back to $40's, I tell you why:

> > > AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> > > billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> > > readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> > > the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> > > the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> > > solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Either go with the flow, or drown.

> On Nov 4, 2:31 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > the trend? you mean since its been trending up for the past 3 days?
> > or since March?

> > On Nov 4, 2:18 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> > <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > Good observation regarding price and time.

> > > However, when dealing with AIG the trend is more important than co-
> > > incidences, or even lucky numbers.

> > > On Nov 4, 1:14 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Isn't that interesting now....Daytraders are setting up a "double-
> > > > dip"  betcha its going back to $40 for sure.

> > > > I tell you though, it wants to go back to $40's and it needs to go
> > > > back to $40's, I tell you why:

> > > > AIG financial products has become healthy again, they recouped 2.5
> > > > billion in gains just last quarter, mortgage securities trading is
> > > > readjusting to fair levels (like AIG risk models accounted for before
> > > > the crisis)  Unless GS and other hedges steps in and starts shorting
> > > > the derivatives again, AIG's recovery in financial products looks
> > > > solid....run up to $46 is legit for Q3 earnings- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.

> On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > another.

> > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Highest:  Never, ever, EVER! buy more into a losing bet in options!
> You'll get creamed if you are wrong.  I too, think share price will
> rise in anticipation of earnings, and then I will turn bearish again
> next week.  But I can't take a chance that I'm wrong.  It's too
> expensive to be wrong.

> Instead of "doubling down" you have to hedge.  For instance, this
> morning I was anticipating a rise in share price, so I bought an equal
> number of contracts on Nov 42 P and Nov 30 C.  Because the opening
> price was closer to the 42 P it was less "in the money" and had a
> lower delta.  So as share price rose, the 30 call would gain value
> roughly twice as fast as the 42 put would lose value, and that
> situation would accelerate as share price rose.  That was my plan.

> But the opposite happened, share price fell, and because the call was
> more "in the money" it had a higher delta, and lost more value than
> the put gained today when share price fell.  But now, here is what is
> golden; If share price had collapsed today and gone toward $30, the
> call would have become less "in the money" and it's value would begin
> decreasing more slowly than the put would gain value.  And I would
> have made money again as share price approached $30.  I would have
> made money today on any rise at all, or a closing share price dropping
> into the low $30s.  I would make big money on share price of $20 or
> $50.  That's why options guys look for movers.  You can shade your bet
> towards an increase or decrease in share price, but basically, you
> just want it to move.

> So, the worst possible scenario for me with this position was to have
> a flat day.  The second worst was to have the closing price be
> equidistant between $42 and $30.  Hmmm, oh well.

> But, I didn't lose nearly as much money as I would have if I hadn't
> hedged.  I dumped the $42 P for a profit at close and I still hold the
> $30 C.  Because of the money I made from the put, I don't need share
> price to go back to $38.  I'll probably be profitable on this trade if
> share price makes it back above $37 or so.  If I anticipate an up
> market tomorrow, I'll just hold that call.  If it drops, and I need a
> hedge, I'll calculate a new one in the morning.

> On Nov 4, 5:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > another.

> > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> Instead of "doubling down" you have to hedge.  For instance, this
> morning I was anticipating a rise in share price, so I bought an equal
> number of contracts on Nov 42 P and Nov 30 C.  Because the opening
> price was closer to the 42 P it was less "in the money" and had a
> lower delta.  So as share price rose, the 30 call would gain value
> roughly twice as fast as the 42 put would lose value, and that
> situation would accelerate as share price rose.  That was my plan.

> But the opposite happened, share price fell, and because the call was
> more "in the money" it had a higher delta, and lost more value than
> the put gained today when share price fell.  But now, here is what is
> golden; If share price had collapsed today and gone toward $30, the
> call would have become less "in the money" and it's value would begin
> decreasing more slowly than the put would gain value.  And I would
> have made money again as share price approached $30.  I would have
> made money today on any rise at all, or a closing share price dropping
> into the low $30s.  I would make big money on share price of $20 or
> $50.  That's why options guys look for movers.  You can shade your bet
> towards an increase or decrease in share price, but basically, you
> just want it to move.

> So, the worst possible scenario for me with this position was to have
> a flat day.  The second worst was to have the closing price be
> equidistant between $42 and $30.  Hmmm, oh well.

> But, I didn't lose nearly as much money as I would have if I hadn't
> hedged.  I dumped the $42 P for a profit at close and I still hold the
> $30 C.  Because of the money I made from the put, I don't need share
> price to go back to $38.  I'll probably be profitable on this trade if
> share price makes it back above $37 or so.  If I anticipate an up
> market tomorrow, I'll just hold that call.  If it drops, and I need a
> hedge, I'll calculate a new one in the morning.

> On Nov 4, 5:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > another.

> > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > another.

> > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -