> Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > another.

> > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> now I understand you.. you have no faith that they can go up, and
> therefore the main thing you see is the potential to go to zero...you
> like the comfort of that, .. thinking you can count on that move.

> Well, gee whiz bro,  thats just another flavor of kool-aid!  Hats off
> to you on knowing your options, but the fate of AIG is yet to be
> determined.

> On Nov 4, 6:09 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > scranton:  I think the Kool-Aid is clouding your perception.  AIG is
> > beyond bankrupt.  But I'm not here because I love AIG, or hate it.
> > I'm here because it's volatile... it moves.

> > Highest:  Never, ever, EVER! buy more into a losing bet in options!
> > You'll get creamed if you are wrong.  I too, think share price will
> > rise in anticipation of earnings, and then I will turn bearish again
> > next week.  But I can't take a chance that I'm wrong.  It's too
> > expensive to be wrong.

> > Instead of "doubling down" you have to hedge.  For instance, this
> > morning I was anticipating a rise in share price, so I bought an equal
> > number of contracts on Nov 42 P and Nov 30 C.  Because the opening
> > price was closer to the 42 P it was less "in the money" and had a
> > lower delta.  So as share price rose, the 30 call would gain value
> > roughly twice as fast as the 42 put would lose value, and that
> > situation would accelerate as share price rose.  That was my plan.

> > But the opposite happened, share price fell, and because the call was
> > more "in the money" it had a higher delta, and lost more value than
> > the put gained today when share price fell.  But now, here is what is
> > golden; If share price had collapsed today and gone toward $30, the
> > call would have become less "in the money" and it's value would begin
> > decreasing more slowly than the put would gain value.  And I would
> > have made money again as share price approached $30.  I would have
> > made money today on any rise at all, or a closing share price dropping
> > into the low $30s.  I would make big money on share price of $20 or
> > $50.  That's why options guys look for movers.  You can shade your bet
> > towards an increase or decrease in share price, but basically, you
> > just want it to move.

> > So, the worst possible scenario for me with this position was to have
> > a flat day.  The second worst was to have the closing price be
> > equidistant between $42 and $30.  Hmmm, oh well.

> > But, I didn't lose nearly as much money as I would have if I hadn't
> > hedged.  I dumped the $42 P for a profit at close and I still hold the
> > $30 C.  Because of the money I made from the put, I don't need share
> > price to go back to $38.  I'll probably be profitable on this trade if
> > share price makes it back above $37 or so.  If I anticipate an up
> > market tomorrow, I'll just hold that call.  If it drops, and I need a
> > hedge, I'll calculate a new one in the morning.

> > On Nov 4, 5:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > another.

> > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> quarter results.

> The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> year.

> Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> week that hint at how AIG performed.

> In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> York and AIG.

> That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> unit are moderating.

> Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> CreditSights.

> Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > another.

> > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

>"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm >CreditSights.
>Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> i love it.  My long term speculation for next year: ... a deal is made
> to cancel the debt (already rumored) that leaves AIG with most of
> their assets

> .. no more fed,  no more treasury,. just AIG money machine..

> On Nov 4, 6:56 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> > Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> > rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> > quarter results.

> > The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> > Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> > helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> > the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> > year.

> > Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> > been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> > precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> > week that hint at how AIG performed.

> > In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> > previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> > Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> > securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> > York and AIG.

> > That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> > products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> > credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> > analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> > cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> > collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> > Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> > second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> > signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> > units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> > survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> > AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> > unit are moderating.

> > Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> > unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> > "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> > asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> > ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> > CreditSights.

> > Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> > selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> > On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > > another.

> > > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

<georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> A deal is made to cancel debt?  Dream on.  This taxpayer won't put up
> with it.

> >"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm >CreditSights.
> >Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> The more asset sales, the less forward earnings for you.

> ""Kool Aid, Kool Aid - Tastes Great!  Wish I had some - Can't Wait!!""

> On Nov 4, 9:53 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > i love it.  My long term speculation for next year: ... a deal is made
> > to cancel the debt (already rumored) that leaves AIG with most of
> > their assets

> > .. no more fed,  no more treasury,. just AIG money machine..

> > On Nov 4, 6:56 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> > > Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> > > rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> > > quarter results.

> > > The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> > > Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> > > helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> > > the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> > > year.

> > > Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> > > been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> > > precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> > > week that hint at how AIG performed.

> > > In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> > > previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> > > Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> > > securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> > > York and AIG.

> > > That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> > > products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> > > credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> > > analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> > > cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> > > collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> > > Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> > > second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> > > signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> > > units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> > > survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> > > AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> > > unit are moderating.

> > > Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> > > unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> > > "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> > > asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> > > ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> > > CreditSights.

> > > Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> > > selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > > Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> > > On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > > > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > > > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > > > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > > > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > > > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > > > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > > > another.

> > > > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

<georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> A deal is made to cancel debt?  Dream on.  This taxpayer won't put up
> with it.

> >"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm >CreditSights.
> >Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> The more asset sales, the less forward earnings for you.

> ""Kool Aid, Kool Aid - Tastes Great!  Wish I had some - Can't Wait!!""

> On Nov 4, 9:53 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > i love it.  My long term speculation for next year: ... a deal is made
> > to cancel the debt (already rumored) that leaves AIG with most of
> > their assets

> > .. no more fed,  no more treasury,. just AIG money machine..

> > On Nov 4, 6:56 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> > > Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> > > rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> > > quarter results.

> > > The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> > > Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> > > helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> > > the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> > > year.

> > > Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> > > been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> > > precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> > > week that hint at how AIG performed.

> > > In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> > > previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> > > Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> > > securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> > > York and AIG.

> > > That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> > > products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> > > credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> > > analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> > > cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> > > collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> > > Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> > > second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> > > signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> > > units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> > > survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> > > AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> > > unit are moderating.

> > > Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> > > unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> > > "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> > > asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> > > ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> > > CreditSights.

> > > Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> > > selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > > Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> > > On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > > > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > > > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > > > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > > > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > > > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > > > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > > > another.

> > > > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> LOL

> On Nov 4, 10:05 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > A deal is made to cancel debt?  Dream on.  This taxpayer won't put up
> > with it.

> > >"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm >CreditSights.
> > >Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > The more asset sales, the less forward earnings for you.

> > ""Kool Aid, Kool Aid - Tastes Great!  Wish I had some - Can't Wait!!""

> > On Nov 4, 9:53 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > i love it.  My long term speculation for next year: ... a deal is made
> > > to cancel the debt (already rumored) that leaves AIG with most of
> > > their assets

> > > .. no more fed,  no more treasury,. just AIG money machine..

> > > On Nov 4, 6:56 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> > > > Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> > > > rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> > > > quarter results.

> > > > The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> > > > Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> > > > helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> > > > the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> > > > year.

> > > > Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> > > > been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> > > > precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> > > > week that hint at how AIG performed.

> > > > In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> > > > previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> > > > Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> > > > securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> > > > York and AIG.

> > > > That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> > > > products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> > > > credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> > > > analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> > > > cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> > > > collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> > > > Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> > > > second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> > > > signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> > > > units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> > > > survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> > > > AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> > > > unit are moderating.

> > > > Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> > > > unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> > > > "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> > > > asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> > > > ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> > > > CreditSights.

> > > > Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> > > > selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > > > Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> > > > On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > > > > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > > > > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > > > > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > > > > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > > > > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > > > > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > > > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > > > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > > > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > > > > another.

> > > > > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

<georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Hey, I hope it hits $60 Friday.

> And I hope you sell, and stuff big money in your pockets if it does.

> Good luck.  I'm mean no harm, just trying to exchange information the
> way I see it from my viewpoint.

> On Nov 4, 10:12 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > LOL

> > On Nov 4, 10:05 pm, George Leroy Tirebiter

> > <georgeleroytirebiter...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > A deal is made to cancel debt?  Dream on.  This taxpayer won't put up
> > > with it.

> > > >"This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm >CreditSights.
> > > >Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > > The more asset sales, the less forward earnings for you.

> > > ""Kool Aid, Kool Aid - Tastes Great!  Wish I had some - Can't Wait!!""

> > > On Nov 4, 9:53 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > i love it.  My long term speculation for next year: ... a deal is made
> > > > to cancel the debt (already rumored) that leaves AIG with most of
> > > > their assets

> > > > .. no more fed,  no more treasury,. just AIG money machine..

> > > > On Nov 4, 6:56 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > A new article from Wall Street Journal:

> > > > > Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market
> > > > > rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-
> > > > > quarter results.

> > > > > The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on
> > > > > Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row,
> > > > > helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at
> > > > > the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last
> > > > > year.

> > > > > Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has
> > > > > been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with
> > > > > precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last
> > > > > week that hint at how AIG performed.

> > > > > In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities
> > > > > previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal
> > > > > Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the
> > > > > securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
> > > > > York and AIG.

> > > > > That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-
> > > > > products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from
> > > > > credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse
> > > > > analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some
> > > > > cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in
> > > > > collateral on the swaps to the insurer.

> > > > > Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's
> > > > > second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for
> > > > > signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance
> > > > > units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer
> > > > > survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said
> > > > > AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance
> > > > > unit are moderating.

> > > > > Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products
> > > > > unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.

> > > > > "This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some
> > > > > asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months
> > > > > ago," says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm
> > > > > CreditSights.

> > > > > Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or
> > > > > selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.

> > > > > Here is the link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125737488595829295.html?mod=rss_marke...

> > > > > On Nov 4, 7:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Although $65 sounds great, I would be more conservative in my bets. I
> > > > > > would guess we will see $45 on Friday if the earnings do not
> > > > > > disappoint. That would be approximately a 25% rise on todays price of
> > > > > > the stock, which closed at $36.2. Of course, these numbers are nothing
> > > > > > but guesses based on our hunches and in this case I would love for
> > > > > > your bet to be closer to the truth than my guess.

> > > > > > On Nov 4, 6:02 pm, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > then I will bet AIG 65 between now and mid Nov.  Then probably drop
> > > > > > > back to high 40's before options expire.  December ??  people saying
> > > > > > > $85 !! Merry Christmas!! thats closer to AIG's BV

> > > > > > > On Nov 4, 4:54 pm, Highest <highest.fin...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > > Truth be told, AIG may have a lot of underlying value or it may be
> > > > > > > > intrinsically worthless in the light of the government loans and
> > > > > > > > ownership. We just don't know at the moment, since the situation the
> > > > > > > > company is in is rather unique. All we can do is bet one way or
> > > > > > > > another.

> > > > > > > > > AIG has plenty o' underlying value.  Everything is appreciating,
> > > > > > > > > including the so called 'toxics', which AIG had assessed correctly if
> > > > > > > > > not for hedges shorting the crap out of them.  Its there business to
> > > > > > > > > run risk models, but the derivatives market F'ed 'em.  Now derivatives
> > > > > > > > > are starting to trade fairly again...AIG gets marked back to
> > > > > > > > > profits.  ..Yo! get on board george! It will just keep getting better.- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -