> do you know?

> do you know?

> "Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news."

> However, AIG just proved that its core business has declined and that
> it is still struggling. It posted profits for the 3Q/2009 mainly
> because of the write-ups of its financial assets. It is a kind of
> cosmetic manipulation although it is legally accepted by the current
> accounting rules. AIG says that it will include $5bn charge and $1.4bn
> losses for the 4Q/2009 earnings report, so it will post huge losses
> for the next quarter. Who still wants to buy AIG?

> Additionally, AIG still taps the US government as Fannie Mae and
> Freddie Mac do. It means that AIG is nothing but a zombie company. No
> smart investors won't buy AIG for their long-term investment. Many
> traders are just gambling AIG for quick money in the NYSE, and many
> amateur investors are losing money...

> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDNcD6D12m8ht......

> On Nov 7, 5:43 am, John <architecter.pros...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > do you know?- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Perfect analysis.  You can expect that traders will allow the stock to
> be run up (if not manipulated by themselves) only to short it back
> down and cover the put spreads.  This is not a bad thing if you want
> to make money on AIG.  Just realize this stock is NOT an invesment.
> It may NEVER be profitable.  It WILL move in these swings for years.
> You just have to learn how the market works and get on the side of the
> traders, otherwise you will get taken to the cleaners.  Some rules to
> consider: watch it like a hawk, keeps your stops in place as it moves,
> and only use money you can afford to lose.  Don't worry about news, or
> analysts recommendations, they are meaningless.

> On Nov 7, 12:43 am, sakura...@yahoo.com wrote:

> > "Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news."

> > However, AIG just proved that its core business has declined and that
> > it is still struggling. It posted profits for the 3Q/2009 mainly
> > because of the write-ups of its financial assets. It is a kind of
> > cosmetic manipulation although it is legally accepted by the current
> > accounting rules. AIG says that it will include $5bn charge and $1.4bn
> > losses for the 4Q/2009 earnings report, so it will post huge losses
> > for the next quarter. Who still wants to buy AIG?

> > Additionally, AIG still taps the US government as Fannie Mae and
> > Freddie Mac do. It means that AIG is nothing but a zombie company. No
> > smart investors won't buy AIG for their long-term investment. Many
> > traders are just gambling AIG for quick money in the NYSE, and many
> > amateur investors are losing money...

> >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDNcD6D12m8ht......

> > On Nov 7, 5:43 am, John <architecter.pros...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > do you know?- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> I spent the whole night last night reading their 10K.  sales are down
> 25% it seams but they are making up for it in write-ups big time.
> (don't pooh-pooh that. If M2M writedowns brought them to edge of
> bankruptcy, that is very significant) But also new business was
> picking up in Oct.  Unemployment is lagging indicator.  Manufacturing
> in Oct actually increased for first time since 'canot remember when'
> last month, for example

> Still investigating that ":114B CASH-AT-HAND" that was reported, I
> don't understand that.  Is anyone out there an accountant who can tell
> me where it derives?

> On Nov 7, 3:53 am, Rich Sheppard <rsgato...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Perfect analysis.  You can expect that traders will allow the stock to
> > be run up (if not manipulated by themselves) only to short it back
> > down and cover the put spreads.  This is not a bad thing if you want
> > to make money on AIG.  Just realize this stock is NOT an invesment.
> > It may NEVER be profitable.  It WILL move in these swings for years.
> > You just have to learn how the market works and get on the side of the
> > traders, otherwise you will get taken to the cleaners.  Some rules to
> > consider: watch it like a hawk, keeps your stops in place as it moves,
> > and only use money you can afford to lose.  Don't worry about news, or
> > analysts recommendations, they are meaningless.

> > On Nov 7, 12:43 am, sakura...@yahoo.com wrote:

> > > "Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news."

> > > However, AIG just proved that its core business has declined and that
> > > it is still struggling. It posted profits for the 3Q/2009 mainly
> > > because of the write-ups of its financial assets. It is a kind of
> > > cosmetic manipulation although it is legally accepted by the current
> > > accounting rules. AIG says that it will include $5bn charge and $1.4bn
> > > losses for the 4Q/2009 earnings report, so it will post huge losses
> > > for the next quarter. Who still wants to buy AIG?

> > > Additionally, AIG still taps the US government as Fannie Mae and
> > > Freddie Mac do. It means that AIG is nothing but a zombie company. No
> > > smart investors won't buy AIG for their long-term investment. Many
> > > traders are just gambling AIG for quick money in the NYSE, and many
> > > amateur investors are losing money...

> > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDNcD6D12m8ht......

> > > On Nov 7, 5:43 am, John <architecter.pros...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > do you know?- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Is it a form of TARP reserve required by the gov't??

> On Nov 7, 7:46 am, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I spent the whole night last night reading their 10K.  sales are down
> > 25% it seams but they are making up for it in write-ups big time.
> > (don't pooh-pooh that. If M2M writedowns brought them to edge of
> > bankruptcy, that is very significant) But also new business was
> > picking up in Oct.  Unemployment is lagging indicator.  Manufacturing
> > in Oct actually increased for first time since 'canot remember when'
> > last month, for example

> > Still investigating that ":114B CASH-AT-HAND" that was reported, I
> > don't understand that.  Is anyone out there an accountant who can tell
> > me where it derives?

> > On Nov 7, 3:53 am, Rich Sheppard <rsgato...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Perfect analysis.  You can expect that traders will allow the stock to
> > > be run up (if not manipulated by themselves) only to short it back
> > > down and cover the put spreads.  This is not a bad thing if you want
> > > to make money on AIG.  Just realize this stock is NOT an invesment.
> > > It may NEVER be profitable.  It WILL move in these swings for years.
> > > You just have to learn how the market works and get on the side of the
> > > traders, otherwise you will get taken to the cleaners.  Some rules to
> > > consider: watch it like a hawk, keeps your stops in place as it moves,
> > > and only use money you can afford to lose.  Don't worry about news, or
> > > analysts recommendations, they are meaningless.

> > > On Nov 7, 12:43 am, sakura...@yahoo.com wrote:

> > > > "Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news."

> > > > However, AIG just proved that its core business has declined and that
> > > > it is still struggling. It posted profits for the 3Q/2009 mainly
> > > > because of the write-ups of its financial assets. It is a kind of
> > > > cosmetic manipulation although it is legally accepted by the current
> > > > accounting rules. AIG says that it will include $5bn charge and $1.4bn
> > > > losses for the 4Q/2009 earnings report, so it will post huge losses
> > > > for the next quarter. Who still wants to buy AIG?

> > > > Additionally, AIG still taps the US government as Fannie Mae and
> > > > Freddie Mac do. It means that AIG is nothing but a zombie company. No
> > > > smart investors won't buy AIG for their long-term investment. Many
> > > > traders are just gambling AIG for quick money in the NYSE, and many
> > > > amateur investors are losing money...

> > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDNcD6D12m8ht......

> > > > On Nov 7, 5:43 am, John <architecter.pros...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > do you know?- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> sakura, I disagree about the losses in Q4, they will be offset by
> IPO's by 25Billon.  But yes, there will be the 5$ billion charge for
> that + 1.4 bilion loss...

> In Q4, They will probably still post paper profit from other assets
> appreciation and any extra money fetched for IPO's, because it will
> reduce debt on their balance sheet.

> Example:  just pretend the IPO deal and $5bn charge, plus 1.4b loss
> were posted last quarter Q3.  In this case net  equity would have
> been
> $91.3 Billion instead of $72.7 Billion.

> If you consider that they may not pay the TARP back, and instead just
> let the Series C convert it would yeild $130 per pro forma diluted
> share, per scranton scenario.

> Otherwise, you can calculate $68.14/ per pro forma diluted share,
> similar to Q3 scenario on page 11 of  Q3 2009 financial supplement.
> It counts for converted Treasury Trust Series E shares AND paying 40B
> TARP.  Still, If we
> subtract 18.6b fetched from  IPO to the balance sheet- it makes a
> pro-
> forma BV$68 instead of pro forma BV$40. make sense?)

> My assessment, AIG is still undervalued, all WORST CASE SCENARIOS ARE
> BUILT INTO SHARE PRICE- UP TO $68 PER SHARE AT VERY LEAST, AFTER
> IPO'S
> HAPPEN IN Q4

> On Nov 7, 7:23 am, Rich Sheppard <rsgato...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Is it a form of TARP reserve required by the gov't??

> > On Nov 7, 7:46 am, scranton sheilds <ccscranton...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > I spent the whole night last night reading their 10K.  sales are down
> > > 25% it seams but they are making up for it in write-ups big time.
> > > (don't pooh-pooh that. If M2M writedowns brought them to edge of
> > > bankruptcy, that is very significant) But also new business was
> > > picking up in Oct.  Unemployment is lagging indicator.  Manufacturing
> > > in Oct actually increased for first time since 'canot remember when'
> > > last month, for example

> > > Still investigating that ":114B CASH-AT-HAND" that was reported, I
> > > don't understand that.  Is anyone out there an accountant who can tell
> > > me where it derives?

> > > On Nov 7, 3:53 am, Rich Sheppard <rsgato...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Perfect analysis.  You can expect that traders will allow the stock to
> > > > be run up (if not manipulated by themselves) only to short it back
> > > > down and cover the put spreads.  This is not a bad thing if you want
> > > > to make money on AIG.  Just realize this stock is NOT an invesment.
> > > > It may NEVER be profitable.  It WILL move in these swings for years.
> > > > You just have to learn how the market works and get on the side of the
> > > > traders, otherwise you will get taken to the cleaners.  Some rules to
> > > > consider: watch it like a hawk, keeps your stops in place as it moves,
> > > > and only use money you can afford to lose.  Don't worry about news, or
> > > > analysts recommendations, they are meaningless.

> > > > On Nov 7, 12:43 am, sakura...@yahoo.com wrote:

> > > > > "Buy on the rumor, Sell on the news."

> > > > > However, AIG just proved that its core business has declined and that
> > > > > it is still struggling. It posted profits for the 3Q/2009 mainly
> > > > > because of the write-ups of its financial assets. It is a kind of
> > > > > cosmetic manipulation although it is legally accepted by the current
> > > > > accounting rules. AIG says that it will include $5bn charge and $1.4bn
> > > > > losses for the 4Q/2009 earnings report, so it will post huge losses
> > > > > for the next quarter. Who still wants to buy AIG?

> > > > > Additionally, AIG still taps the US government as Fannie Mae and
> > > > > Freddie Mac do. It means that AIG is nothing but a zombie company. No
> > > > > smart investors won't buy AIG for their long-term investment. Many
> > > > > traders are just gambling AIG for quick money in the NYSE, and many
> > > > > amateur investors are losing money...

> > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDNcD6D12m8ht......

> > > > > On Nov 7, 5:43 am, John <architecter.pros...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > do you know?- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -