American International Group, Inc. Google Group

Re: SPECULATIVE SCENARIO Concerning Pro Forma BV at Q3 2009

2009-11-07T17:47:05Z

did I mention my scenario yields BV $99.6/share after dilution??

Re: AIG / CHARTIS is Hot Garbage

2009-11-07T17:42:42Z

let them keep shorting against steadily improving fundamentals, better
the squeeze, I don't care! I like that :)

Re: Any prediction on aig next week?

2009-11-07T17:39:35Z

I second that. They keep improving their net equity every quarter.
Next two quarters are safe in my opinion 2nd Q 2010 might have
hurricane.

SPECULATIVE SCENARIO Concerning Pro Forma BV at Q3 2009

2009-11-07T16:40:23Z

So my fellow bagholders, let take a hard look at what is presented
here, we have a pro forma BV of $40. But there is something missed in
the equation..

Total AIG Shareholders' equity - MINUS Series E PREFERRED
$40.605 B LOAN (including cumulative dividends on Series D preferred)
- Series F draw down .

Re: Any prediction on aig next week?

2009-11-07T15:09:27Z

If earnings were so upsetting to wall st, why did the stock close at
$35 a share? If it hit high teens or lower I would say the big cats
are gettin out, however if $35 is a floor, then I truly believe it
will make a run to $65 by year end.

Re: AIG / CHARTIS is Hot Garbage

2009-11-07T13:58:06Z

SAKURA, I hope u do not short this. THis stock short percentage is
near 20%.. potential for a short squeeze.

U have seen how BULLS vs BEARS were playing this out on FRIDAY.

The BULLS are quite strong. and a break above 36 on MONDAY will
squeeze this upwards to 38.

Then another squeeze will occur.

Any prediction on aig next week?

2009-11-07T13:57:35Z

Indeed was a scary scene>>>

Vol was high in beginning but got very low throughout the day>

They did fairly ok in 3Q though profits largely from selling assets.

Any prediction next week?

Re: AIG / CHARTIS is Hot Garbage

2009-11-07T13:32:02Z

The stock just got punsihed 10% on what some would say were good
earnings. It is irresponsible to suggest here to short the stock at
this price. It is already at multi-month lows and I suppose it could
possibly go lower, based on the market, but if the market continues to
rally and you are short AIG, you will get your butt handed to you.

Re: AIG / CHARTIS is Hot Garbage

2009-11-07T13:27:06Z

What are you even doing here reading this, if you are so smart to stay
away from AIG?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Re: Goldman Sachs also traded much lower on the day of its earning release and what was the story on that?

2009-11-07T13:23:14Z

Is it a form of TARP reserve required by the gov't??

Any prediction on aig next week?

2009-11-07T13:01:49Z

Indeed was a scary scene>>>

Vol was high in beginning but got very low throughout the day>

They did fairly ok in 3Q though profits largely from selling assets.

Any prediction next week?

Re: Goldman Sachs also traded much lower on the day of its earning release and what was the story on that?

2009-11-07T12:46:51Z

I spent the whole night last night reading their 10K. sales are down
25% it seams but they are making up for it in write-ups big time.
(don't pooh-pooh that. If M2M writedowns brought them to edge of
bankruptcy, that is very significant) But also new business was
picking up in Oct. Unemployment is lagging indicator. Manufacturing

Re: AIG / CHARTIS is Hot Garbage

2009-11-07T12:37:59Z

Asian stock markets have not discounted the US unemployment rate of
10.2% which was released on the 6th of November. So, the share prices
will drop sharply at the Asian stock markets next Monday. Traders will
take this opportunity for further short-selling. Therefore, the
European and US stock markets will also go down. As AIG is a good

Re: Goldman Sachs also traded much lower on the day of its earning release and what was the story on that?

2009-11-07T09:53:15Z

Perfect analysis. You can expect that traders will allow the stock to
be run up (if not manipulated by themselves) only to short it back
down and cover the put spreads. This is not a bad thing if you want
to make money on AIG. Just realize this stock is NOT an invesment.
It may NEVER be profitable. It WILL move in these swings for years.

AIG third-quarter profit was driven by higher investment income

2009-11-07T09:46:00Z

By Lavonne Kuykendall and Joan E. Solsman
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
American International Group Inc.'s (AIG) third-quarter profit was
driven by higher investment income and gains in the market value of
its invested assets, while its core insurance operations struggled
with a weak economy and lingering negative perceptions in the