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  F on Wednesday, 4 November
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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 7:32 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 04:32:13 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 7:32 am
Subject: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Good Morning, Think Tank & All~

FINALLY it looks like we have a day when the general environment will
be supportive.

Overnight Asia was UP nicely ~ from the Nikkei's +.4% to the Hang
Seng's UP 1.7%.  Europe is even stronger.  At the moment the major
European markets range from London's UP .96% to the CAC 40'S up
1.96%.  Oil prices are responding as well ~ UP $.45 to get above
$80.00 a barrell again.

The DJIA futures at this hour are being reported as UP 61 pts. and the
S&P as UP 6.701.

More importantly, F at 8:20 eastern traded at $7.46, with 48K shares
already traded in the directed market.

The Pivot Point numbers for F for today, for those that find them
useful:
++++++
  Standard
R3 7.99667
R2 7.83333
R1 7.63667
PP 7.47333
S1 7.27667
S2 7.11333
S3 6.91667
Observation: BEARISH with a closing price between pivot point and S1.
++++++

The news features a story that the auto sales reports show that the
economy is recovering.

Speaking of news, it will be dominated today, or at least we think it
will be, by the Fed statement due out later today.

So, as always, REALLY interested in what you think the day will bring
for those of us interested in F.  In particular, where will trading
open in the regular markets, what will the bottom of the dip be, how
high can she make it today and where will she close.

Each of you can share your thoughts ~ and PLEASE do.

Looks like a LONG way to R2 ~ can we make it today?


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 7:34 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 04:34:55 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 7:34 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Think Tank & All~

Should have included this in the news section of the opening post:

+++++++++

Ford Motor Company Announces Pricing Results of Convertible Notes
Offering
Tuesday, 3 Nov 2009 07:47pm EST
Ford Motor Company announced the pricing of its offering of senior
convertible notes due November 15, 2016. Notes in the aggregate
principal amount of $2.5 billion will be offered, an increase from
the
$2 billion previously announced. The notes will be senior unsecured
obligations of Ford and will bear interest at a fixed rate of 4.25%
per year. Ford has granted the underwriters an option to purchase an
additional $375 million in aggregate principal amount of notes. The
notes will be convertible, under certain circumstances, into shares
of
Ford common stock, cash or a combination thereof, at Ford's election.
The initial conversion rate is 107.5269 shares of Ford common stock
per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which is equivalent to an
initial conversion price of approximately $9.30 per share. The
conversion rate and the conversion price are subject to adjustment
upon the occurrence of certain events. Barclays Capital, BofA Merrill
Lynch, Citi, Deutsche Bank Securities, Goldman Sachs & Co., J.P.
Morgan, Morgan Stanley and RBS are acting as joint book-running
managers of the notes offering. Net proceeds to Ford from the senior
convertible notes offering are expected to be used for general
corporate purposes. "

+++++++++

Also, GM has apparently decided to NOT sell OPEL and Nissan is
reported as having returned to profitability as well.

On Nov 4, 6:32 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 7:44 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 04:44:21 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 7:44 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Think Tank & All~

Did you notice, in the story about the convertible notes posted
earlier, the following line, "initial conversion price of
approximately $9.30 per share".

Does that give anyone an idea of the anticipated future value of F
common?

On Nov 4, 6:34 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Rhizzlebop  
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 More options Nov 4, 8:28 am
From: Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:28:26 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:28 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Hi all.  I'm having an AC unit installed today so I might not be
monitoring throughout the day as usual.  Hope we can move up today.  I
see we are down a bit since wij posted about the premarket trading.

On Nov 4, 7:44 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 8:30 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:30:34 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:30 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Think Tank & All~

Whew, it's UGLY in F now.

Someone, and it is definitely a "player" is ravaging F and doing it
unopposed.

At 8:30 eastern, over 3.5MM shares traded already and the price is
down to $7.31.

On Nov 4, 6:44 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 8:42 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:42:51 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:42 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Think Tank & All~

"Driver" has apparently engaged.

At 8:40 eastern, nearly 6MM shares traded with last trade at $7.34.

Hey Rhizz~

This is not the start that I was hoping for.  Plan to move the Dec
calls today or tomorrow.

As you have noted, we are losing about 1cent per day per share covered
to time decay.

While I do expect the price to rally after these two days, the
question is will it off-set the time-decay.

Yesterday's close put more doubt in my mind than the events of the
earlier portion of the day.

On Nov 4, 7:30 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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edin  
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 More options Nov 4, 8:50 am
From: edin <milpr...@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:50:14 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:50 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
w,

Im unsure exact effects of $9.30 pricing
thats why I posted question earlier
Im not generally a day trader, but 33 cent looks in place for a quick
day trade
Thoughts

is today any different from yesterday?
really
6.6M volume is a ton ... but pace seems to be the same as yesterday
& down only 10cents- actually amazing
Can you think of any other stock, which would hold up with that sell
pressure P.M.
NOT even aapl, would hold 1.5% decline p.m. w/ that volume

....................

side notes News;
Predictions, Mulally & misc exec BUY stock at these levels asap
F pays of some Bonds in open market nearterm
Bank holding co. approval Industrial Bank approval
30 days ... done

.................................

Im calling a recent bottom to overall markets
1036 s& p off to 1125 in 11 days
Bet you a beer,
money is safe here
All in !
in the markets till 1120's s& p

bull bear ratio
trough ed
unsure of 11-3 #'s
some look at this for contrarian bet, but
look at that charts climb just as markets have
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intel...

...........

nissan
922M profit, better guidance
tm 700M loss
honda? unsure was it 300M loss or profit for the q

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssAutoTruckManufacturers/idUST322507...

www.mffais.com
11-3 report near 1M net added shares of F
again granted dealyed but for 2 month period not much there to report
changes, new holders of F
couple listed below
2009-11-03 2009-09-30 13F-HR Apg All Pensions Group Institution
547,029
2009-11-03 2009-09-30 13F-HR Omerset Asset Management Llc Institution
245,645

GM - its all good, no hate here
modest issue, there current MS must shrink a drop... to be more
completive
F gets there better share vs. others
Keeping opel, is good,
Further upside to volvo

On Nov 4, 8:30 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 8:59 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:59:21 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:59 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Hey edin~

To echo Car Guy's post of yesterday ~ What the hell are you trying to
say?  As in, "Im not generally a day trader, but 33 cent looks in
place for a quick
day trade"

Have real trouble trying to separate what you are saying as
"fact" (that the real world would recognize as FACT) and what you see
as "truth".

That leads me, unfortunately to disregard MUCH of what you write.
Even that which, if I could assess it better, I would accept.

Not trying to be harsh ~ LOVE your belief in F.

Just trying to let you know how you could be even more effective with
people as dense as me.

On Nov 4, 7:50 am, edin <milpr...@aol.com> wrote:


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edin  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:06 am
From: edin <milpr...@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:06:30 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:06 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
w,

.33 +7.31=
7.64 by noon

I'll draw you some pictures next times.

Facts are listed in my links above!

should you or anyone not like my approach-
I'll start adding disclaimers, I guess

BUT when I hear TROLLS ... here
discussing high 6's
I like to add possible PREDICTIONS

They always come true
THEY just become fact later

On Nov 4, 8:59 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:25 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:25:48 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:25 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
edin,

Thanks, friend, pictures might help.  You gotta take into
consideration the mental capacity of the audience.  Remember, my
favorite phrase is, "Duh...?"

I agree with your pictogram below.  I WOULD like to think of the day's
high reaching above $7.64.

Unfortunately, someone is doing a damn good job of forcing it down
below where I thought they could get it.

The "Suppressor" has an "A-Team" playing today.

"Driver", so far, does not.

Will that change?  DEFINITELY hope so.

As to the comments of TROLLS ~ when they provide open crap, you gotta
trust that even someone with my ability understands it to be "CRAP".
If it needs to be destroyed, it is best done, for people like me, by
giving the facts that shame them.

Neither trirades nor "empty postives" do anything for me, except
encourage me to not read the post.  The former are "regrettable", the
later are too hard to assess.

On Nov 4, 8:06 am, edin <milpr...@aol.com> wrote:


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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:30 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:30:35 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:30 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
In case anyone is interested - yesterday's short sales exceeded 46
million shares - or 24.3% of all sales. That's the highest level in
months.

On Nov 4, 9:25 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:

...

read more »


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:40 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:40:27 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:40 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Hey Toronto~

THANKS!

Confirms what seemed obvious, and that is MOST helpful.

Unfortunately, I do think that today's short volume will be even
HIGHER.

Somebody must have a HELL of a lot of money on F in a way that they
will be really HURT if the price rises.

I am hoping that, despite the obvious power that they have, that they
will not be able to stop this stock reaching the price that the
company's performance would warrant.

Quite a show so far today, eh?

32MM shares traded by 10 minutes into regular market trading.

On Nov 4, 8:30 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

...

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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:48 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:48:52 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:48 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Very impressive show.  I too am fascinated by the amount of money
throwing walls up against this share price.  It seems that there is
intent to drive the price down as much as possible before the
inevitable climb to the next leg in Ford's ascent to $25.00.  Looking
to make up for the ground missed in the climb from $2.00 to $6.00?
Not sure what is happening here, but I am almost tempted to go into
Rip Van Winkle mode on Ford and just convert everything to shares and
ignore things until pricing becomes rational.

On Nov 4, 9:40 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:

...

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wijram  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:01 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:01:41 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:01 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Toronto~

I hear ya about the idea of moving into a simple long position and
then sleeping for a month or more.  But carrying just too many Mar
calls.

Also have some December calls, but have decided that they will be gone
in next day (today-tomorrow) regardless of price.  Time decay becoming
too much of a factor.

Standing in awe of the fact that we went over 52MM shares traded in
first half hour.

Wonder whose pockets are deeper today?

On Nov 4, 8:48 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

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edin  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:03 am
From: edin <milpr...@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:03:59 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:03 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
t,

canadian sales out? 20K or so for Oct

true, very interesting.
to you -  does $9.30 mean anything...
to me, its like F bulls are trying a bottom pull of the stock
upward...
have you heard of this prior

in next several days dust should clear
BUT wow.
those march calls - Im adding asap
buy of a lifetime
FCL
or more a little in the money FCJ
unsure here

.......................

wijram,
its all good!

empty promises or not
Obviously f goal, and overall market goal for F to get it over $10-
fund manager, MM goal .. they sleep better in double digit stock price

so as a group... its FAIR game..
to PREDICT a news event!

someone predict
something negative, thats ok too

again no worries
I love you too

On Nov 4, 9:48 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

...

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The Car Guy  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:15 am
From: The Car Guy <richb...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:15:49 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:15 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Guys~
My opinion from a couple of months ago still stands true (to me)

I originally said F would hammer earnings
Price would trade up in anticipation
Price would then pop at earnings
Price would drift down on sales results for October
Price will drift down on November sales results
Price would then trade sideways to south until December sales results
(Jan 10 release)

Jan 10 "all clear" sounds and we start our actual turn toward $12 and
beyond

I don’t think I have been wrong just didn’t get as much of a pop on
earnings as I thought.

HOLD tight, or at least trade in and out now through mid to late
December.

It will all be OK!

On Nov 4, 10:03 am, edin <milpr...@aol.com> wrote:

...

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Denno  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:29 am
From: Denno <dennislr...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:29:07 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:29 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
$25.00 a share? Are you serious? When are you thinking that kind of
price might happen?
On Nov 4, 9:48 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

...

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edin  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:30 am
From: edin <milpr...@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:30:08 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:30 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
c.g.

you said ...
price drifts down with release of BAD sales #s for Oct
remember our  conversations, SAARS etc
bad bad bad Sept & Oct sales #
post clunker sales.

so PLEASE man up
& dont re-write history.

This is what I referred to earlier to wijram
Post
predict a news event.

Should it not happen, expected to get slammed later

On Nov 4, 10:15 am, The Car Guy <richb...@gmail.com> wrote:

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jdl51  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:37 am
From: jdl51 <jdlin...@comcast.net>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:37:06 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:37 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
I believe, if the economy slowly gets out of this tremendous hole
we've been in for the past year and a half, that F could hit the $20 p/
s range.  It's been there before and I think with current management,
which is doing a tremendous job during the worst economic conditions
since the GD, we should hit that mark within two years at most.
Market share is increasing every month, great lineup, forward thinking
management, improving economy, improving margins, cheaper cost
structure.

On Nov 4, 10:29 am, Denno <dennislr...@gmail.com> wrote:

...

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JasGot  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:47 am
From: JasGot <jas...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:47:40 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:47 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November

wijram -
Can you explain this to me? I don't understand how this could be the
case

"Somebody must have a HELL of a lot of money on F in a way that they
will be really HURT if the price rises. "

Thanks.

On Nov 4, 10:37 am, jdl51 <jdlin...@comcast.net> wrote:

...

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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 10:58 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:58:47 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 10:58 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Ok - here are the full numbers with market share data - US and
Canada.  Note my prediction of Ford (with Volvo) at 16.5 - 16.9% was
pretty close.  Volvo let me down mainly as Ford was right where I said
- high 15s to 16% - but I expected Volvo to have big upswing to .8% -
but only hit .53%.  That's ok though - since Volvo "may" be gone (he
says mischievously), it's Ford we really care about and that hit 15.8%

Company Sales   Mkt Share
GM      176,632 21.05%
Toyota  152,165 18.14%
Ford    132,488 15.79%
Volvo   4,437   0.53%
Audi    7,358   0.88%
BMW     20,649  2.46%
Chrysler        65,803  7.84%
Honda   85,502  10.19%
Hyundai 31,005  3.70%
KIA     22,490  2.68%
Isuzu   251     0.03%
Jaguar  3,042   0.36%
Maserati        111     0.01%
Mazda   15,068  1.80%
Mercedes        18,854  2.25%
Mitsubishi      3,867   0.46%
Nissan  60,115  7.17%
Porsche 1,642   0.20%
SAAB    513     0.06%
Subaru  18,169  2.17%
Suzuki  1,745   0.21%
VW      17,037  2.03%
All     838,943
Unadjusted Annuallized Rate     10,067,316
Estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) 10.48 million
(I used an estimated weighted factor [my own] of 0.96 as opposed to
the 4 different factors for domestic autos, foreigh autos, domestic
light trucks and foreign light trucks as I don't have the breakdown of
actual sales between trucks and autos)

For Canada:

GM      18,818  15.48%   ↓ 33%
Ford    18,187  14.96%   ↑ 20%
Toyota  17,358  14.28%
Chrysler        14,215  11.70%
Honda   9,224   7.59%
Hyundai 8,415   6.92%
Nissan  5,912   4.86%
Mazda   5,612   4.62%
KIA     3,603   2.96%
VW      3,545   2.92%
Subaru  2,486   2.05%
BMW     2,310   1.90%
Mercedes        2,199   1.81%
Mitsubishi      1,452   1.19%
Audi    1,100   0.91%
All others      7,100   5.84%
All     121,536

On Nov 4, 10:47 am, JasGot <jas...@gmail.com> wrote:

...

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Rooty  
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 More options Nov 4, 11:12 am
From: Rooty <justinpaulmar...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 08:12:19 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 11:12 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
This is unbelievable. The volume is through the roof! This should be
in the $7.70s right now dammit. Total bullsh*t!

On Nov 4, 10:58 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 11:13 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 08:13:47 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 11:13 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Denno,

It's in the cards.

Ford is now coming into its "steady state" of structural costs
reductions and matching production to sales journey that Mulally
embarked on 4 years ago.  They have pretty much driven out all the
waste costs they can that are easy and medium easy to achieve.  They
will continue to make progress, but not as pronounced.

If in that state they can achieve a billion dollar quarterly profit at
a 10.5 million SAAR (and there were no significant unusual items in
there to my knowledge) - that's a $4 billion annual profit company.
At a 15 million SAAR rate and the corresponding increases in vehicle
sales around the rest of the world, given Ford's operating margin
leverage, I believe $2.5 billion a quarter is NOT out of question for
Ford. That's a $10 billion a year profit and that should be Ford's
"average position" once we achieve the 15 million SAAR.  If we take a
PE ratio of 8 - that's an $80 billion market cap. (I do believe I am
being conservative in all of this). Given 3.22 billion shares (I am
ignoring the dilution right now) this gives us a $25 per share
company.  My Target Time Frame: 3 - 4 years

Of course all this assumes they can maintain at least a 15%+ market
share.  I am actually betting they go higher once Chrysler dies.

All this is opinion of course,
and you must remember I am
£σκί
IСФΜ

On Nov 4, 10:29 am, Denno <dennislr...@gmail.com> wrote:

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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 11:20 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 08:20:57 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 11:20 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Now you may understand the song I posted two weeks ago:

You can read it in the tea leaves,
And it's written in the sand,
How we found cash by the car load
In the Ford and Volvo land

Tell the shorters we're all happy,
And it's something they will never know
How we found cash by the car load
By being long in Ford, doh!!!

On Nov 4, 11:13 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:

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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 4, 11:29 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 08:29:27 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 11:29 am
Subject: Re: F on Wednesday, 4 November
Wow - passes the 100 million mark well before noon.  Less than two
hours of trading in fact.

On Nov 4, 11:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote: