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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 7:29 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 04:29:50 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 7:29 am
Subject: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Good Morning Think Tank & All~

One headline in the news this morning seems to sum up a lot today ~
"Futures Drift Ahead of US Jobs Data" ~ but more on that later.

Overnight, Asian markets were UP across the board ~ with the range
being from the Nikkei's +.70% to the Hang Seng's + 1.46%.  Europe at
this hour is following suit, but at a lower pace.

The DJIA futures are as one would expect from the above headline, a
undecided + 4 pts while the S& P is UP .6001 pts.  Oil is currently is
reflecting the weaker dollar at $79.87, up $.25.

For those that find the Pivot Point numbers useful, here they are for
F for today:

++++++++

  Standard
R3 7.70667      Open:  7.36
R2 7.60333      High:  7.5
R1 7.52667      Low:  7.32
PP 7.42333      Close:  7.45
S1 7.34667
S2 7.24333
S3 7.16667
Observation: BULLISH with a closing price between pivot point and R1.

+++++++

Of course, the jobs report due out at 8:30 eastern time will likely
give direction to the overall market.  It should answer the question
being posed yesterday afternoon by many, "Can the market climb again
on Friday after a 200 pt gain on Thursday."

However, not even the all important jobs data will totally determine
the fate of the price of F common today.  Yesterday's volume, while
down significantly from the two preceding days, was still more than
sufficient to show that some "players" are in the game on this one.
The struggle between the bulls and the bears will, almost without
doubt be continuing today.  I suspect it will be even more fierce than
it has been in recent days.

Ford opened in the directed trade market this morning with a spread of
$7.42 - $7.50.  The first actual trade my system showed was at $7.47

So, as ALWAYS, interested in you thoughts.  In particular, where will
F open in regular market trading today?  How low will it dip, and how
high will it reach.  And, of course, where will it close this weeek?


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Gotluck  
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 More options Nov 6, 7:59 am
From: Gotluck <rsgotl...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 04:59:25 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 7:59 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Good moring Wijram and TT,

I was reading the posts last night, i'm back in to work and strapped
in tight, and I wanted to post a thought. Looking at the charts for
timing, the tea leaves look like the low 7.60's are shaping up to be a
break out point. I'd estimate that a close above that is an indication
of the start of a longer trend. As some indicated this as area as an
exit point. I realize everyone here is on different time frames. My
best guess is a slow stair stepping toward the 9's beginning next week
or so. Does this sound at all out of line? Basically, it looks like
the price pattern in August. Its converging to a point and we're just
about there. Does anyone else read the tea leaves?

On Nov 6, 7:29 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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The Car Guy  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:14 am
From: The Car Guy <richb...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:14:05 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:14 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
No but I have a "Magic 8 Ball"

Does that count?

On Nov 6, 7:59 am, Gotluck <rsgotl...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:19 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:19:58 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:19 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Gotluck~

Thanks for the observations about the $7.60s as a break out point.

I am not very good at technical analysis, so I particularly appreciate
posts like yours that cover my butt in an area in which I am weak.

Would appreciate it if others who are strong in tech analysis would
weigh in on how they are seeing the way things are shaping up.

I do notice that F crossed the 50 day moving average yesterday.  Hope
that bullish signal pans out today.

On Nov 6, 6:59 am, Gotluck <rsgotl...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:28 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:28:59 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:28 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Toronto~

Good Morning.

Two things~

1)  Would you please provide yesterday's short numbers as soon as you
can.

2)  In a post yesterday, you noted that the short numbers for Wed were
down from the earlier two days.  But what piqued my interest was your
comment which was essentially, "as I expected."  What had caused you
to expect a lower number for Wed shorts?

On Nov 6, 7:19 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:34 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:34:57 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:34 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Think Tank & All~

Volumes were low this morning in earlier trading.

Then at 8:23 eastern things started to change.

Now, 10 minutes later, 621K shares have already traded.

This has brought the price down.  Last trade at $7.34

On Nov 6, 7:28 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:37 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:37:23 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:37 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Think Tank & All~

Jobs data seen as not good.

192K jobs lost.  Unemployment rate to 10.2%

This will not make for a supportive environment today.

DJIA futures now down to -48 pts.

On Nov 6, 7:28 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:39 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:39:14 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:39 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Think Tank & All~

F back UP to $7.40.

On Nov 6, 7:37 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Rhizzlebop  
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 More options Nov 6, 8:51 am
From: Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 05:51:58 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 8:51 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Oh boy.  With this bad jobs news, we might touch 7.  Ridiculous.

On Nov 6, 8:39 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Rooty  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:07 am
From: Rooty <justinpaulmar...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:07:17 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:07 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
All is not lost. AIG reports profit for second consecutive quarter and
Obama to sign a bill extending the homebuyers credit for new buyers as
well as current homeowners. Bill will extend credit until May 1.

Also, the jobs data is not great but not too terrible. Losses still
show a decoine from highs and things are moving in the right
direction.  We MAY get out with our skin today. Maybe.

On Nov 6, 8:51 am, Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:11 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:11:08 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:11 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Rhizz~

Job news is certainly NOT good, but....

The danger is the headline, but the news is precisely what was
published yesterday ~ believe it to be the consusus estimate.

Do not agree with your assessment of its impact on F, although there
will clearly be a negative impact ~ which neither of us need today.

I note that, at least for a while now, F has held at the $7.35 level.
That may be the close to the lower limit range.

All that being said, and further recognizing what Gotluck wrote this
morning about an approaching breakout, I am shedding my Dec calls
today, regardless of price.

Have some hope that the markets, or at least F will recover from the
impact of the jobs news, but even if they do not I am just too
concerned about time decay.

What I can gain by holding is just not worth thinking about Dec calls
all weekend.

On Nov 6, 7:51 am, Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Rhizzlebop  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:16 am
From: Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:16:11 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:16 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
I hear wij.   I think its gonna dip on open a bit lower, so I may go
ahead and dump mine on open here in a minute.  I wish JT was here to
give his 2 cent on the low today, but I just feel like its gonna drop
to 7.20.

On Nov 6, 9:11 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:20 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:20:20 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:20 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Shorts for the week to date.  Please note: it appears my service had a
glitch for Wednesday as the numbers were revised significantly.

Date    Day Volume     Short Vol        SV/DV%
11/05   124,575,121     27,327,185      21.94%
11/04   240,095,100     52,568,529      21.89%
11/03   193,726,100     46,709,027      24.11%
11/02   208,718,300     32,070,494      15.37%

Hey wijram - my comment regarding "as I expected" was based on
observation at day's end on Wednesday as I reviewed the charts for the
day - was that following the big opening drop, volatility was fairly
muted for the day.  Nothing of interest until the second fall-off at
the end of day and that did not appear to be shorters - just a mirror
of the entire market. On top of that - I thought that the almost 80
million shares shorted in previous two days was a lot and expected the
shorters to be running out of steam.

Obviously I was wrong.

This revised number blows me away and makes me think about going into
that RVW phase even more.  With the revision - that brings total
shorts this week alone to almost 160 million shares. That's getting
close to $1.2 Billion.  This brings an elegant phrase to mind -
WTF?!!!

In any case - I wonder how much they can keep throwing against this
stock?

Rhizzlebop:

I don't consider the jobs report "bad" - 190,000 versus the expected
175,000?  Nonsense and likely not accurate.  In september they
contradicted the ADP report and stated 263,000 jobs lost when ADP was
saying 220,000.  Later they revised the number to 209,000.  The Fed's
US jobs report is almost never accurate first time out - not even sure
why anyone pays attention to it.

As far as unemployment climbing 40 basis points from 9.9 to 10.2 - one
of two things.  Outright error (which is possible though unlikely but
come on - the job losses don't match up).  Or - more likely - more
people have re-entered the job search category and that's a good sign
because that happens when there are signs that jobs are becoming
available.  That's why unemployment lags the recovery because as more
jobs become available and easier to find - more people enter the
active labour pool.  Just another part of the story the talking heads
don't tell you.

Sorry - but I see this as a good report.

On Nov 6, 8:51 am, Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Rooty  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:27 am
From: Rooty <justinpaulmar...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:27:06 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:27 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Spot on Toronto. Forecast of 175,000 losses and 9.9% unemployment.
Losses came in at 15,000 more than expected and unemployment jumps 40
points? To quote you- nonsense.  Other factors at work and I also
believe them to be positive. Things ARE picking up.

As for the shorts-echo the statement- WTF???? Ford is rock solid. Do
you think they back out after Nov expirations?

On Nov 6, 9:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:28 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:28:50 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:28 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Toronto~

Thanks for the numbers ~ and the revision makes me feel better.
Thought I was losing it.

I agree that these numbers do raise a most serious issue of how long
the shorters can keep this up.

Unfortunately, the news today might provide them cover to escape.

On the other hand, if they do not and if they continue to press the
issue, there will be no "pop" ~ it will be one damn BIG EXPLOSION.

Wanna be holding a LOT of F common and a LOTTA F calls on that day.

On Nov 6, 8:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:30 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:30:01 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:30 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Just a minute to open ~ 2MM shares traded ~ last at $7.37

On Nov 6, 8:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:31 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:31:11 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:31 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
By the way - did anyone catch that analyst Yamada's comments on the
Wednesday market wrap up? Absolutely hilarious - you have to wonder
why these people get paid.

Not exact, but pretty close: "Given the lack lustre commitment shown
in the market today along with the poorer volumes, it is apparent that
some stocks will win and some won't".

Is that insight worth a half a million or more a year, or what?
Although I was LMAO I also wanted to drive a spike through my ears and
eyes so I didn't have to hear/see such greatness in the future as
obviously I am not worthy.

JMO of course, although not very humble about it. ☺

On Nov 6, 9:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:37 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:37:50 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:37 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Didn't take long to chew through that 10 cent drop - did it?

On Nov 6, 9:31 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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Rhizzlebop  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:37 am
From: Rhizzlebop <michaelrrho...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:37:52 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:37 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Well, that just shows what i know.  It went up a tiny bit on open.

On Nov 6, 9:31 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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edin  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:40 am
From: edin <milpr...@aol.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:40:09 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:40 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
t.t.

Careful... with Short Interest action analysis
We just do not know the NEt effect preday

ONE of the BEST TELLs ...
Ive ever noticed was ... whispers of truth, F became HARD to
borrow ... +/- 4-09
rates to borrow F was near 13% .... BIG short squeeze happens, BOOHey

at some point OBVIOUSly history repeats... CANT wait to report here -
when it does
BUT other pls keep an eye OPEN to that...

..................

rooty nice ELO reference yesterday! keep them coming
Led Zeppelin today

chin up my friends
Little market head fake at work... wow 11am ALL markets will be up.
Too many arm chair economists ... & on TV &
on the web
side notes below..

2 questions to
Ask yourself;
I
Markets have lined UP $2,875,000,000
2.875B for NEW F equity, right
who was buying a ton of volume ... headed into Mondays 2.8B offering

II)
why is s & p 1075 shortly ???

YOUR money here -at these levels...
SMART MONEY!
dumb money comes at 12- 13.50

Toronto right on!
Too many arm chair economists... smart ones in canada
its simple-
inventory declines 10-11 months (+/-)
durable goods orders on the rise ... trend was called my a smart TT
member
& 60 days from now, revised Oct better than report (today)

Roubini gets on TV & says see NO job recovery yet
& 98% of smart money people KNOW 98% of recoveries, pull out of
recession happen like this!

where g-money for the Bro-Guy

SONG for JT
Ain't no sunshine when JT's gone.
It's not warm when JT's away.
Ain't no sunshine when JT's gone
and JT's always gone too long
anytime JT's goes away.

Wonder this time where he's gone,
wonder if he's gone to stay
Ain't no sunshine when he's gone
and this house just ain't no home
anytime he goes away.

and this house just ain't no home


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Rooty  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:40 am
From: Rooty <justinpaulmar...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:40:28 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:40 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
And I may or may not get absolutely hammered tonight. Hopefully I will
be celebrating and not holding a wake! C'mon baby run!  Can I get an
R2? Holla!

On Nov 6, 9:31 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:42 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:42:32 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:42 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Think Tank & All~

11 minutes to trade the first 10MM shares.

On Nov 6, 8:20 am, from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com> wrote:


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Rooty  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:48 am
From: Rooty <justinpaulmar...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:48:36 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:48 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Anybody see the article on Chartpoppers about the wedge forming? They
said that is indicative of a breakout higher or lower. Can any of you
techies out their elaborate? Timing, size of move, etc.. Still
wrapping my arms around the tech analysis so any guidance/knowledge
would be helpful.

Oh sh*t $7.53! Sweet

Zeppelin
The Lemon Song

Squeeze that lemon till the juice runs down my leg
Squeeze it so hard I fall right out of bed.

Run baby run!

On Nov 6, 9:42 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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from Toronto  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:49 am
From: from Toronto <lo...@rogers.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:49:48 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:49 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
edin - great song for JT - excellent.

wijram - any signs the wall is cracking?

On Nov 6, 9:42 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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wijram  
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 More options Nov 6, 9:52 am
From: wijram <wij...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 06:52:06 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 6 2009 9:52 am
Subject: Re: F on Friday, 6 Nov
Think Tank & All~

Notice that there are NO walls.

Have the shorters already withdrawn?

On Nov 6, 8:42 am, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:


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