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  Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
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chleoku  
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(1 user)  More options Jul 3, 12:16 pm
From: chleoku <chle...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 09:16:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
As expected, our employment rate is reaching the dangerous 9.5% level
and inching towards 10% benchmark of depression. Umemployment would
not peak until mid 2010. Looks like we are heading to the Dow 7500-800
level soon:

http://www.wealthalchemist.com/Blog/2009/07/unemployment-nears-double...

Is Apple going to suffer?


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Paul  
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(2 users)  More options Jul 3, 1:53 pm
From: Paul <paulmorrison...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 10:53:27 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Jul 3 2009 1:53 pm
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Will 10 percent unemployment affect a company that relies on consumers
spending more money than they need to?

I'm not sure, but it certainly does not help (especially with its
currently bloated stock price).

I wouldn't touch this company at this price.

On Jul 3, 9:16 am, chleoku <chle...@gmail.com> wrote:


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10101010  
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 More options Jul 3, 2:52 pm
From: 10101010 <bil...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 11:52:20 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Jul 3 2009 2:52 pm
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Depends on what you mean by "suffer".
I think the current employment trend has enough history; and Apple
relative sales have enough history, for one to be able to do some
pretty simple extrapolation.
It's common knowledge that Apple has fared  far better than most
comparable companies in this economy.  That said; the MMs will push
"AAPL" wherever they want, regardless of what's actually happening
with "Apple".
Steve Jobs said (many years ago) that Apple was going to get through
the economic tough times through "innovation".  That strategy's been
working pretty well for them, I'd say.  I can't wait to see what they
will be unleashing in the next 12-18 months.

On Jul 3, 12:16 pm, chleoku <chle...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Paul  
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(1 user)  More options Jul 3, 3:13 pm
From: Paul <paulmorrison...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2009 12:13:41 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Jul 3 2009 3:13 pm
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Looks good so far.

The problem is the leader changes rapidly in the phone and gadget
market.

You can go from top to bottom

Just ask Motorola.

Or just ask AAPL in early 2000s.

On Jul 3, 11:52 am, 10101010 <bil...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Nicu  
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 More options Jul 4, 5:25 am
From: Nicu <nicu.mihala...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2009 02:25:17 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sat, Jul 4 2009 5:25 am
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
everything is possible, Paul

but we should talk about what is probable (more than 50%) and I think
it is very probable (at least 75%) that your shorts will burn you :D

On Jul 3, 9:13 pm, Paul <paulmorrison...@gmail.com> wrote:


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caruso2323  
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 More options Jul 4, 6:18 am
From: caruso2323 <caruso2...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2009 03:18:35 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sat, Jul 4 2009 6:18 am
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
nicu, Some people quit their math courses very early in life ... lol

So the Unemployment goes up from 9.5% to 9.6% ... : Worse case
scénario to an average ignorant investor is that CPU sales and iPhone
sales drops by 0.1%... But to bearish average bearish ignorant person
it may mean that 25% of the employed people will differ the purchase
of a new computer because they are scared sh!t  of losing their
jobs...

But to the average educated bullish investor it may mean that given
the increase in disposable income, 25% of the employed people could
decide to upgrade their CPU and cell Phone as they target quality
products to gain productivity and efficacity...

This same sucker has posted relative to P/E ... P have almost doubled
while E has not ... So P has to drop... This shows not just mathematic
ignorance but also financial... Comparing P growth % to lagging E
growth % instead of to forward growth % while basing it strictly on
GAAP, while ignoring iPhone non GAAP and ignoring the notion of Future
cash flow  growth ...

I believe that GOOG financial ought to set math tests to wanna-bee
posters ... lol...

I am not claiming that AAPL will not drop should there be a market
correction despite the fact that its fair value of 140 (based on
previous bearish future eps's), AAPL will trade with the market until
Earnings and it will then trade on its own merits...

On 4 juil, 05:25, Nicu <nicu.mihala...@gmail.com> wrote:


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homsapiens  
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 More options Jul 4, 10:47 am
From: homsapiens <homsapi...@aol.com>
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2009 07:47:50 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sat, Jul 4 2009 10:47 am
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Not any more.  Once a platform has been established (60,000 apps and a
billion + downloads) people tend to stick with it.  Apple will milk
this platform for a decade or more as the de facto standard for mobile
computing.  No other manufacturer comes close.

On Jul 3, 1:13 pm, Paul <paulmorrison...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Constable Odo  
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 More options Jul 4, 10:51 pm
From: Constable Odo <constableo...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2009 19:51:08 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sat, Jul 4 2009 10:51 pm
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Apple probably won't suffer, but investors might.  Apple can ride out
it's reserve cash for years, but long term investors most likely won't
see a thing from it.  I got into Apple in 2004 and was part of the
rise and split, but since hitting $200 it's been a rocky ride.  It
dropped down below $100 and no dividends.  Hedge funds and the media
can just keep holding Apple down as long as they like.  I can only
look forward to China buying millions of iPhones but that's just
grasping for straws.  Apple is going to have to sell 10 million
iPhones a quarter to move the stock significantly and I don't know if
that's possible.  No matter how much reserve cash Apple can stack up,
it doesn't move the share price at all. Some say the cash reserve is a
hindrance, but I'm uncertain about that.  Unfortunately, businesses
want nothing to do with the iPhone and that's a serious problem since
it continues to give RIM all the leverage and almost unlimited cash
flow to compete with Apple.  Apple doesn't seem to be concerned about
this at all, so investors are sort of left to dangle about.

On Jul 3, 12:16 pm, chleoku <chle...@gmail.com> wrote:


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gmgravytrain  
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 More options Jul 5, 7:06 am
From: gmgravytrain <gmgravytr...@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 5 Jul 2009 04:06:18 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sun, Jul 5 2009 7:06 am
Subject: Re: Is the apple going to suffer from high unemployment and low spending power
Apple seems somewhat tied to the DJIA, at least to some degree.  I
think that if the Dow Jones could get up to around 10,000, Apple could
get back to around $180 or so.  The DJIA lost about 500 points in June
but Apple managed to stay flat which is pretty decent.  I don't want
to see the Dow back at 7500 because I'm sure it will drop Apple back
$10 or so.  I just know that some of Apple's best quarters are being
wasted in this crappy economy.  This is not Apple's doing.

On another note, I'm curious about how well Microsoft will perform
with the introduction of Windows 7.  People are saying the stock might
double, but I doubt that happening.  I'll see if investors jump all
over MS if Windows sales are good.

On Jul 3, 12:16 pm, chleoku <chle...@gmail.com> wrote:


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