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Message from discussion Earnings math (and more)
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dan...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 11 2007, 3:38 am
From: dan...@gmail.com
Date: Thu, 11 Jan 2007 08:38:24 -0000
Local: Thurs, Jan 11 2007 3:38 am
Subject: Re: Earnings math (and more)
@Blake.....hadn't even thought of iTunes.  Apple grosses about $0.35
per track according to the music industry (check CDBaby for a thorough
non-business description of the iTS business model).  1B songs in the
10 months leading to calendar year end.  With the exponential growth
Mr. Jobs talked about, how many of these tunes are backloaded in 07Q1?
iTS has high overhead with the credit card charges, but the numbers are
getting big enough to finally add multiple pennies to the quarterly
earnings (they've never been broken out before).  iTS, the world's
third-largest retailer of music is nothing to sneeze at...

@ada......hadn't considered the Fed effect on PE.  $200 is likely
aggressive, but I think we'll see it sooner than we'll see 75 again.  I
haven't even targeted when $150 hits,

In Chandler, the Apple Store brought out handheld credit card
authorization machines to handle the crushing demand.  46M iPods would
be insane, but it fits Mr. Jobs numbers.  I still have a harder time
imagining ordering, manufacturing and shipping 46M iPods than selling
46M iPods.  8 of top 10 slots on Amazon, huge stacks in Costco,
expanded Apple presence in Best Buy and other mainstream retail....
The capacity to SELL 46M iPods is there, but did they have enough
foresight to MAKE 46M iPods?


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