Dan
Regarding the iPods.. is my believe that Apple includes in those
numbers all of the products of the iPod family  which includes the
Nano, and shuffle,  the shuffle was an extremely hot item and got sold
out pretty much everywhere.   The number will be big, but i'm not sure
whether it will be that huge, with the shuffle in the mix it could
completely be possible.

I believe guidance was lowered last year because of uncertainty with
the transition to Intel chips and Adobe not releasing the universal
binary for its software the same year.  given the numbers of Macs sold
i think we can all say that guidance was extremely conservative and
we'll see an upside surprise come 17th.  If anything Apple might raise
its guidance given the new products iPhone, AppleTV  as well OSX10.5
coming out later this year and a surge of MacPro's being sold thanks to
Adobe finally releasing Adobe Studio CS3.

I completely agree with you, that the iPhone will not compete with the
iPod or take its market share.  is not going to replace it either.
There is going to be a lot of speculation regarding this subject and
could be manipulated to drive the stock down.  The problem is that
Apple will not be willing to come out and say we a have a stand alone
wide screen iPod with multi-touch technology coming out this year,
because potential buyers of the iPhone might hold on and wait for it.
But i'm pretty confident that will finally see a 6Generation iPod
before this year ends.