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Message from discussion Earnings math (and more)
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merkhet  
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 More options Jan 11 2007, 8:45 am
From: "merkhet" <merk...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 11 Jan 2007 13:45:44 -0000
Local: Thurs, Jan 11 2007 8:45 am
Subject: Re: Earnings math (and more)
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Dan, I applaud your efforts, but I'm not sure your logic is correct.  I
remember that part of Jobs' speech too, and I think when he was talking
about market share as a whole as opposed to "market share of the units
sold that year."  (Although, you may have a point given that he said
Zune had a 2% market share -- that seems pretty high for a product that
was just released.)

If he meant total market share, then you can't just apply the 62%
number to the annual market for mp3 players because he would be saying
that 62% of the mp3 players "owned" in the world were iPods, as opposed
to 62% of the mp3 players "sold this year."

I'll have to look at the keynote again to see exactly how he phrased
the 62% and 2%.

dan...@gmail.com wrote:
> But a part of Mr. Jobs' speech really caught my attention.  These
> weren't just words (like the mis-interpreted quote on Macrumors), but
> actual displays on the screen.  No slips of the tongue here, but edited
> and reviewed Keynote slides.

> 1) Through November, Zune had a 2% market share; Apple had a 62% market
> share.  Data was not available for December.

> 2) The annual market for MP3 players is 115M units.  He used this
> figure before showing the market of 950+M cell phones.

> 3) Apple sold 25M iPods in 2006 Q2 - Q4 (Jan 1 - Sep 30 2007).  Source:
> SEC filings.

> 4) If the figures on the Keynote slides are correct, a 62% share of a
> 115M unit market is 71M units.


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