Puts look nice.

It might run up again tomorrow on bush's "plan" to save the sub-
primers.

Life is SHORT...might as well be happy.

Sorry for the SHORT paragraph, but, I'm SHORT, i mean i'm sure i got
my point across.

"good company"=:
1. excellent management team
2. fiscally conservative
3. doesn't self-develop = owns little land but has 2 year supply
4. caters to several buyer's groups (1st time buyers, 1 time move up,
2 nd time move up and move down, in each division!) = diverse as each
group reacts differently to economical conditions thus stabilizes
company from sales stand point
5. large earnest money deposits requirements at contract = less
canceled contracts in future
6. do not take "house to sell" contingency on to be build homes = less
canceled contracts in future
7. low debt
8. low on build inventory (relative to say DHI and others)
9. Ryland Mortgage, Ryland Title and Ryland Insurance additional
profit centers

"neighborhood is awful"=:
regardless of the company's policy it is in "real estate" and
"homebuilding" sector and there is nothing good about it in general in
our days thus stock doesn't have its own identity and moves along with
entire sector, so if RYL gains 30% in a week, everybody else does also
and everybody can drop 10+% in half a day of trading...

we were saved yesterday by GW announcement.... if that wouldn't happen
and TOL would make their lovely announcement then.... well.. you
know :)

wait until BZH will open up its books to public... it will be sad day
in new construction sector....
with that being said, if anyone is stupid enough to invest in new
construction (me:) then RYL
is one of top 3 picks.

just my opinion of course...

It's good to evaluate a firm at this point and gauge how it'll do once
the floor is apparent...but its also wiser to let the housing market
ride out...and then get in.

Patience.

but at the same time we can make some cash in a rather predictable
short play pattern since all new construction stocks move together in
the same direction by approximately same percentage with identical
time frame...

i am watching closely, jumping in and quick out w/ profit, but would
not commit to any stock in new construction for longer then couple
days...

i look at these homebuilder graphs and all i see are hills in the past
3 months. these hills will continue.  some will speculate whether
these hills will become mountains, but, I believe they will be hills.
at times a mountain is formed which is a bonus for us.  once i witness
a homebuilder is at a bottom of a hill, i will get in so i can climb
the formatting hill...and once I see a homebuilder at the top of a
hill, i get out and wear my shorts even if its winter.

im sure you can get my drift.  if not, keep reading over and over.

The signs all over this mountain read "No outlet."

The cliff is nearby.

and i can't believe it lasted as long and as good as it did....

marry x-mas from ryl to me:)   (and everybody else!)

what to do now......? hmmm... i think i'll increase in tech or energy
until i'll
figure out acceptable strategy here...

what do you think about Jan puts on ryl?

Jan. will be a volatile market; the most volatile january in years;
puts and call will look nice, however, puts on ryl seem favorable
currently.

I'm anticipating some downward pressure from the tech sector.  The
market has tech overpriced.  Once the market prices in some of this
downward pressure; I'll LEAP with Appl. and Goog.

i like that ryl surprises me and holding ground... maybe i moved out
to soon...

i like everything about aapl but fulishly afraid of a stock price...
my concern
is that IF they will miss investors expectation on any #s they will be
@ 150/sh
in NY minute... imho expectations are almost always unreasonable and
punishment
is always severe without exceptions.. recent fed rate announcement and
ramification is good confirmation...

Marry Christmas TGF and may your analysis, luck and timing be
impeccable next year!

Stop limit orders can alleviate some of that paranoia, but, I know
what you mean.

The hedgers might be at work or a lot of short covering going on
because this stock has increased close to over 40% in 30 days.

This is pleasant news for people PUTting up with the housing market:

"Home prices are going to decline "considerably further" in coming
quarters, likely reaching a double-digit pace on a year-over-year
basis, according to Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR Inc.
"Given conditions relating to mortgage financing, and the number of
unsold homes that is piling up, all regions are likely to continue on
a negative trend in the months ahead, and those with the greatest
oversupply (at the bottom of the pack at the moment) will continue to
fall by the most," wrote Mr. Shapiro in a research note."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119867779499850669.html?mod=hps_us_wh...

i guess w/ making so much $ in Dec. investors decided to roll short
term gains into 08...

Jan will get uglier... sad... do you think we will be @ $16 to $19 ps
by 25th?

Good Luck!

Battered by the housing market slump, single family homebuilder Ryland
Group Inc., (NYSE: RYL) has been trending downwards from its all time
of $83 levels since early '06. Twenty months down the line since the
stock marked its all-time high, the stock found support at  $20 levels
in late September 2007. RYL's homebuilding revenues and margins
decreased during the same period. This was mainly due to the cooling
home demand and falling home prices. The housing correction has
intensified in the year 2007 as a result of mortgage market crisis and
credit crunch. The resultant tightening of mortgage lending and
increased foreclosure activities is expected to drag the housing
segment downturn well into 2008. The daily chart of RYL shows that,
since it took support at $20 levels in late September '07 the stock
has been moving side-ways between $20-30 range. After forming a hammer
candle around $20 levels support at 9th January '08, the stock has
been on an upward move. While the fundamentals of the company remains
weak, the interest rate sensitive stock is likely to rally from the
current levels till $29 resistance, underpinning hopes of a 50bps cut
in interest rates by the Fed in its forthcoming FOMC meeting.

www.researchtoriches.com

cheers

I have mixed results which equates to not too much movement in my
portfolio.  Congrats on your prediction with AAPL!...

I predicted wrong with AAPL.  My gut was telling me to stay on the
sidelines and do not get caught up in a position before earnings but
sometimes that "gut" is obsolete when one puts too much soul into an
equity position, in my case: AAPL.  Generally I put more weight into a
"forecast/guidance" when earnings are announced and i even generated
my own forecast/guidance but, I didn't emphasis this with AAPL....very
very bad move. In retrospect, economical conditions paint a much
clearer picture on "performance" than any one company out there.

This poor move with AAPL has been off-set with some index trades,
particularly with IWM.  Index positions are the way to go right now.

RYL seems to put up a fight, but, with its rating cut to "junk" I
don't see anything past the $29 mark.  Puts are priced cheap, but, I
would make certain that contract expirations are after March thus
alleviating heightened levels of volatility.  The delta is not so
highly correlated with longer expirations relative with shorter
positions.

I simply cannot believe how ryl is performing... but I am stil afraid of
it as nothing changed industry wide... housing still blows...
And before I'll go in on ryl I want to see:
1.      how ryl will behave for 3 weeks after tmrw (Q4er)
2.      I want to see bzh numbers

Then we can start playing ball long term... hopefully bzh will go bust
altogether and that will give us clean slate...

Good luck mate!

also keep in mind that if feds were to lower rates more than markets
expectations next week homebuilders will be the first group to rise by
at least 10% by days end.

I think we are looking at excellent opportunity to chew some builders
up.. they are green across the board based on feds and senate's bail
out.... BUT this so called bail-out while is giving boost to all, can
not be applied to all.. important to reanalyze land positioning per
state (as increase in jumbo is state specific) w/ price-point offered
and separate to which builders increase in jumbo loan limits
beneficial and to which is more or less meaningless...

I also think this is a great time to go short in a big way on bzh..

In my opinion (just 2c here mate):
This is going to turn ugly shortly as mortgage rates had huge jump
yesterday, dec report no good, starts no good, inventory stil high and
I don't believe fed will reduce rates on Wednesday... if I am correct on
feds (god forbid) we better off not have any $ in equities on WS till
Feb 6-7th