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Safeguard Scientifics, Inc |
here's a quick update on conservative valuations for partner
companies. Does this make sense?
Alliance Consulting tracking at 85MM 2007 Revenue with expected net
loss of 6 Million. Valuation: $100MM
Acsis tracking at 18MM 2007 Rev with expected net loss of $10MM.
Software rev growth of 22%. Valuation: None. Might be time to scrap
this operation...
Authentium: Major new contracts with UK and Aust ISPs. SFE purchased
8% for 3MM. At that valuation, 20% holding worth 13.5MM.
Beyond: Have 37% stake for $13.5MM. Experiencing rapid revenue growth.
Valuation: At least 13.5MM.
Nextone: Peers IPO'd at levels which would make SFE's 17% stake worth
50MM+. Seeking new CEO. Will be a while before liquidity exit.
Revenues still growing well.
Portico: Have 47% stake for $6MM. Revenues growing well. Valuation:
$6MM.
ProModel, Advantedge, and Broadband National: Valuation: $0 until
indications otherwise.
Total tech liquidity exit possible valuation: $183MM
Healthcare:
Advanced BioHealing: SFE bought 4% more for 2.7MM. At that valuation,
SFE 28% stake is $19MM.
Clarient tracking $40MM 2007 Revenue and breakeven by end of year. At
$2/share with SFE owing 60%, it is worth $86MM.
Laureate tracking $27MM 2007 Revenue with EBIDTA positive Q2. SFE owns
100%. 1X Rev Valuation: $27MM.
Rubicor. SFE invested $20MM. Early Stage product commercialization
going well. Valuation: $20MM.
Avid and Ventaira have promise. Not sure about NuPathe, Neuronyx,
Cellumen: Valuation $0 until indications otherwise.
Total Healthcare Liquidity Exit Valuation: $152MM.
Tech + Healthcare = $183 + $152 = $335MM
Cash on hand: $126MM. Debt. $129MM
Tax Loss Carryforward: $394MM.
# of shares of SFE: 122MM
$332/122 = $2.63 conservative PPS valuation assuming partner growth
rates offset future expenses.
Your thoughts? Recommended adjustments?