Why AMD…?
Follow the trail left by Apple.

All signs point that something is up between forces in Cupertino and
Sunnyvale.

One must take into consideration that any company that Apple acquires,
contracts with or aligns must be able to fabricate a diversity of
semiconductors for a very broad product line from iPod's to MacBooks
to Servers.

Since most Apple enthusiasts know that ATi graphics cards are the
bleeding edge of technology it was my first hunch that AMD (the new
owner of ATi) is a key component in a future strategy.

But then all these other things started to trickle in and fill in the
missing blanks.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/01/22/pasemi_departures/ -
"According to our sources, the two former AMD executives have teamed
up again to attack a new, stealthy project. Their departures look bad
for PA Semi, which hopes to get its initial processor out this
year..." Jan. 2007

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/11/steve_jobs_spills_pasemi_beans/
- "Earlier this week, after his keynote speech at Apple's Worldwide
Developer Conference in San Francisco, Jobs slipped a few extra words
to The New York Times, and at one point - while describing his grand
plan to reinvent the world of parallel computing - his mind wandered
to P.A. Semi, the chip start-up Apple purchased back in April..." June
2008

In researching P.A. Semi one finds that they are the equivalent to an
engineering / architect specialist when it comes to chip design (they
were derived from DEC Alpha), they sculpt the blueprint - only a
handful of companies build / mass produce the semiconductor off of
their specification (Motorola, Samsung, Intel, AMD etc being a
handful).

The problem with CPU's right now is not speed but now reserving the
architecture to interact with applications for other functionality
while consuming a fraction of the power, most especially since the
majority of Internet enabled devices are now running on batteries.  In
the world of high performance desktops and servers I equate multicore
processors to adding engines to a car.  Adding calculation engines to
a processor does not do much and that appears to be exactly what is
happening in the market today - (dual core, quad core, dual quad core
etc etc)…

One has to transfer and make use of the power created by transforming
it then transmitting it to wheels.  Okay so this analogy is seemingly
imperfect because in the world of computing it is not a wheel being
turned but several applications; however, these must know how to
interact without shutting down a primary brain that controls
breathing, heart rate etc - the OS... This is why P.A. Semi looked so
attractive to Apple, they got their R&D all but free after the
purchase.

Wish I could also recall where I stashed that hyperlink to an article
where Apple all but gave the finger to both Samsung and Intel recently
on future offerings, they basically said "No thanks we are going with
another vendor".  (Samsung makes the CPU for the iPhone.)

“…Spinning off AMD's manufacturing facilities…”  This leaves one to
even question where some of the future lines shall be made.  What is
asset smart anyway…?
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Desktops-and-Notebooks/AMD-Denies-Fab-Sell-Off/

The coolest thing about all this for Apple is that a partnership /
merger and/or acquisition is a win for portables, desktops and
appliances as AMD has a handle on multicore CPU's thanks in part to
their experience and exposure to CRAY engineering and other specific
proprietary technology, something that Apple has valued in the past
and likely still does today.

The quintessential founding father Steve Jobs I bet still follows this
mindset even after all these years.  To him it is about producing a
product that can not be ‘knocked off’ in China.  That logic is just
his modus operandi.

Something about Steve Job's words to The New York Times have haunted
me for the past several months, "...while describing his grand plan to
reinvent the world of parallel computing..." Every time he speaks, I
listen.  Steve Jobs has the propensity to drop hints like a well tuned
Jedi Master.  He always has to the media, think of it as a game of
intellectual chess.

For Apple to place AMD with similar roots from Sunnyvale, CA 'under
the hood' - a fellow American entity - is wonderfully good PR any way
you cut it.  To me it's Apple's near final coup d’état under the
leadership of Steve Jobs.

Apple has plenty of room to grow being No. 3 to Dell and HP in
marketshare regardless of hiccup's in the current economy.  Further it
would take a company like AMD with the ability to meet the volume and
demands of Apple.

I theorize that a partnership between AMD and Apple all but solidifies
holdings intellectual and otherwise but most especially in a time of
financial crisis for AMD.  I further question if their performance on
their core business might have been a symptom of something grand that
they just cannot discuss or yet make public.

Again, all signs point that something is up between forces in
Cupertino and Sunnyvale.

You made me lol.

AMD will go to chapter 11 before apple even considers.

I question what is truth and what is fiction, for someone to have
wrote it,- it was likely mentioned and from the detail it was a very
specific and lengthy discussion. The article at CNET stipulated:

"...UPDATE: According to Kirk Ladendorf, the author of The Austin
American-Statesman article, the Statesman will issue an update, likely
sometime during the week of July 28. In short, it appears that AMD's
contention that Dirk Meyer was misquoted is true..."

Or is it...?

http://www.amdzone.com/index.php/news/91-AMD/10068-amd-dirk-meyer-was...
AMD: Dirk Meyer was Misquoted
Written by Matthew Cameron
Tuesday, 22 July 2008 22:04
Advanced Micro Devices is saying that Dirk Meyer was misquoted when
the Austin-American Statesman reported that Meyer claimed that AMD was
spinning off their manufacturing business. [That was a rough
sentence.] Some in our forum have claimed that this is like a game of
Telephone, where one person says one thing and when it gets to the end
of the line, it sounds like something totally different. I'm not sure
if this is true or not, about AMD splitting into two companies. Also,
I'm not sure if Meyer really was misquoted or if AMD is attempting to
do damage control. As always, we'll find out sooner or later.

I for one think this was contractual damage control, he likely had his
arse chewed by legal.
Lose lips sink ships.

Wasn't that already refuted by AMD's public relations or something?

... in fact, that article mentions as much, just about, from the looks
of it, and goes into some details on the 'rumor'...

The above is an adjustment to my earlier reply, as I decided to look
into that article you posted. At first, I was under the impression it
was like all the other articles titled as such, and basically just
regurgitating the 'Statesman' article.

Regardless... based on what I know of the x86 license that allows AMD
to even make CPUs that work with modern PC software, they presumably
need to still technically own the factories/fabs that make their chips
or they can't legally sell them. Again, this is based on my readings
of other people's interpretations of the license.

The spin off of a specialized subsidiary specifically created to cater
to the needs of a company like Apple is far fetched. Or is it?

Apple doesn't have to purchase all of AMD they would just need an
alliance / partnership soley dedicated to manufacture for their
lines.  This might have seemed like a reason for Meyer's hiccup
although no names were really named...  The latter press release had
an aire of "These aren't the droids you're looking for..." in my
humble opinion - total denial, total damage control.

Knowing Apple and standard business practices this transaction is a
trade secret as any potential change to their platforms may generate
negative press effecting leadership, share price, reciprocal
agreements with existing vendors and/or suppliers.  Let's call it a
'deluge'.

Apple is the grand master / puppeteer when it comes to not only PR but
also logistics of their supply chains.  Just look at Steve Jobs
disapproval of MobileMe - he has a strong dislike for all things 'half
baked'.  This transition (should it be true) is likely one of the
largest milestones in Apple's history.

Fabs aren't cheap and this is likely where AMD has been spinning their
wheels with resources already for Apple although they've had to be
tight lipped about it subsequently they've taken a huge hit on the
street. Let’s face it, right now AMD likely has excess capacity
extreme - part of their asset plan is to turn it into revenue for
someone.  Just speculation, time will tell.

...based on what I know of the x86 license...
Herein is the beauty of what I theorize - this new 'thing' might not
be x86 at all... For that you might just have emulation software.
P.A. Semi is a company that can start from scratch - what Peter
Oppenheimer mentioned by a "product transition" could be something
very radical and new.
http://www.channelworld.nl/web/Mediabankpagina/Apples-product-transit...

This all seems highly suspect and wildly speculative, to me.

04/23/2008
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2008/04/23/apple-buys-pasemi-tech-eb...

"...Apple first got to know the designers at P.A. Semi about three
years ago, when the computer maker still used PowerPC chips in its
Macintosh computers. Dobberpuhl and his team, which includes engineers
who had a hand in designing powerful chips, including Intel's Itanium,
Advanced Micro Devices' Operton and Sun Microsystems' UltraSparc.
Dobberpuhl was also the lead designer on a DEC chip project called
StrongARM, which was ultimately folded into Intel after DEC collapsed.
Intel tried to use the design as the basis of chips for the smart-
phone industry, but eventually sold that group to Marvell..."

"...Dobberpuhl wanted to design an enormously powerful chip, based on
the PowerPC architecture, that used little power. When Apple decided
to quit using the PowerPC chip in favor of Intel microprocessors, the
conversations with P.A. Semi petered out.
In February 2007, P.A. Semi debuted a 64-bit dual core microprocessor
which the company asserted was 300% more efficient than any comparable
chips. It consumes only 5 to 13 watts running at 2 gigahertz.
Telecommunications, networking and wireless companies embraced P.A.
Semi's work..."

"...Although no current Apple products use P.A. Semi chips, Apple
executives kept a close eye on the work of the start-up. Talks of
acquiring P.A. Semi began only in the past few weeks. Employees have
been notified of the deal..."

"...It will likely take at least a year before products incorporating
P.A. Semi designs are ready. The company's flagship chip is at the
heart of heavy-duty computing systems, such as those sold by NEC's
storage division. But the design philosophy--hefty processing power
and frugal power use--are in concert with Apple's directions. Although
Apple plans to continue supporting P.A. Semi's current customers,
insiders suggest that Jobs plans to use future P.A. Semi chips
exclusively within Apple products..."

"...At that point, executives believe the company will have created a
unique asset--a powerful microprocessor that sips power lightly and so
can support just about any imaginable applications Apple's software
gurus can imagine..."

AMD will likely mass produce this new 'thing' based on the design by
P.A. Semi.

Wildly speculative...? I dunno.  Something is up my friend.

... now that, I can see.. I wasn't quite understanding, I suppose. I
was seeing the talking about spinning off, and then the references to
the Apple chipset deal (that isn't even guaranteed to be AMD-
related)... All things I've seen enough of to know what's going on, at
least according to the news. But this sounds like something else, and
doesn't conflict with the other established information.

There are only a handful of companies similar to AMD that operate on
that kind of scale to be able to take care of a company like Apple.

Is it Intel...? - It is right now however I read reports that Apple is
not moving forward long term with Intel - they have too much market
share and too little need.
Is it Sun Microsystems...? - Don't know (potentially)
Is it DEC...? - Don’t know (potentially) - I suspect no due to
capacity

Truth is it could be one of several possible companies but I have
confidence and am putting my money on AMD due to expertise in graphics
with ATi and the ability to forge their own chips.  AMD has excess
capacity to the extreme and they've been pummeled for seven
consecutive quarters - they cannot turn down an offer to produce for
anyone - most especially a partnership / alignment with the number
three manufacturer of personal computers.

Should AMD be relieved of one third or half of their 'asset' burden,
what we are looking at today is a fire sale with their stock price.

Intuition tells me that something has sidetracked AMD,- yet from
following articles from their leadership they have a silent
confidence / comfort in knowing where they are now positioned - thing
is they likely cannot make it public yet.

Apple is 'transitioning' its product line and have P.A. Semi at work
on a blueprint for something radical in the works, P.A. is a skunk
works - they will hand off this design to another larger company for
mass production.  The lead engineer Dobberpuhl worked closely with AMD
on Operton.  Since there is a relationship established I suspect it
will be leverage now that he is employed by Apple - he knows his way
around AMD.

I do not think that this new Apple design is x86 - too predictable -
(although I guess it could) to me the fact that Dobberpuhl was tight
with AMD is a tale-tale sign.  That is however no guarantee, just an
educated hunch.

I admit, I need some help here,- part of this story that is unfolding
also may include Jim Keller and Wayne Meretsky... - where are these
guys today and what are they doing, should they be back at AMD or
hiding out at Apple you have either the smoking gun or else maybe a
dead end.  I am limited in my time to research and firewalls block
access to social networking sites.

From the register in Jan 2007
"...P.A. Semi's VP of engineering Jim Keller and customer engineering
chief Wayne Meretsky left the chip maker late last year. According to
our sources, the two former AMD executives have teamed up again to
attack a new, stealthy project. Their departures look bad for PA Semi,
which hopes to get its initial processor out this year..."

Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer stated that margins will decrease
drastically just some time ago due to the mysterious 'transition'-
this announcement all but sent AAPL's stock price into a downward
spiral for a time.  I like others believe AAPL's transition into the
chip fabrication business for their own lines is already underway -
AMD is the most likely candidate from where I am sitting - they left a
trail.  Should these chip designs from P.A. Semi be so efficient, they
cannot be trusted to Intel (82% of the market..?) - that would be
something akin to giving away the geese that lays golden eggs.  One
can speculate that the rumored (once true, not true, now true...)
spinoff of fab facilities will ensure that intellectual property stays
just that.

AMD's core business is still x86 for the foreseeable future, so I've
consistently been questioning of the spin-off suggestions. Making
their facilities somehow available for others to use, I've conceded as
possible and potentially capable of alleviating expenses, but from my
point of view, they need those plants.

Until I actually see AMD splitting off their manufacturing and giving
up majority ownership of them, I'm likely to stay skeptical of the
'spin-off' theories.

But everything else sounds plausible to my point of view so far.

Samsung ought to buy AMD, lock stock and barrel.  A collegue and I
were just discussing this and I can't see a reason not to.  AMD can't
afford to execute, but has great ideas.  Samsung is oozing capital,
can pick up a new product set, the brains behind the business, a
presence in the EU (the AMD fab in Dresden, Germany), and the only fab
operation Samsung has outside of Korea today is in Austin, TX, where
AMD has a sizable presence as well.  Samsung would get all of this,
including all the fab operations, for about the same amount they would
spend on building a new fab.  Seems like a match made in heaven.
Regardless of whether each company would want to go this direction,
would there be regulatory concerns?

Someone already has an in with AMD, they're being split & spun off its
official.  There are only a handful of companies that are ripe with
cash to do that kind of a deal --- bottom line is timing --- Apple is
going fab and announced such months ago but where and with who...? Who
was recently split & spun but won't talk...? AMD.  Not rocket science
dude.

Yeah, in certain backwards countries you're still not allowed to beat
your workers and have them die on you from working 80 hour workweeks
for years on end. Can you believe that?
Crazy, I know.

I'd rather pay $5 more for a t.v.

Fuck Samsung!

Only time will tell, looks like partizan speculation to me, stop being
so damn inventive.

you made me lol again with your certainty.

"bottom line is timing"

Yeah AMD are good at that, look at the ATI purchase, ill let you
linger on that comment.

Between my 'drivel', 'dicking around on stage' and 'partizan
speculation' I can certainly feel the love...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partisan

I can trade insults all day long with the sharpest of wit, but I am
here to spread the gospel of something historic and it likely involves
AMD.  Once AMD's balance sheet is trimmed of excess capacity it is
much more likely to prosper.

Rather than bash perhaps you and/or others can do something
constructive for all of us and gather information on Ex-AMD Executives
Jim Keller and/or Wayne Meretsky.  Apple left a trail. Take apart my
position with information that counters what I have provided - show
me, don't tell me.

I like you am here to make money, place nice or take your belongings
out of the sandbox and start anew - should I be right,- I could make
you and the lives of many others better than you are today.

I pointed out a upcoming relationship between Apple and AMD several
months ago. I was scoffed and laughed. However I am laughing now.
Thanks for the great and descriptive information. Best of Luck.

Why would the sudden spike encourage investors? Honestly do you really
think Intel is going to allow Apple to use an ATI chipsets? They don't
even want vendors to sell AMD chips and list it next to intel chips.
Do you think that the reason Apple wants to partner with AMD is
because a superior HD integrated GPU. Honestly have you even seen the
benchmarks. Wow triple the  score of a score that is poorly rated
already. That is like saying 3 is much  more greater than 1 when it is
just 2  more. It is not a big difference especially where the aim is
HD and requires very little performance to render effectively.

The main reason why APPLE wants to make a custom chipset is because
they want to make their next generation notebook proprietary to the
OSX software. They  want to encourage consumers and developers to
continue using the OSX and the other related apple software and by
becoming proprietary the developers will be forced to make or port
over programs for the OSX. At this point many people are trying to
dual boot OSX and windows onto macs so they can just play a game or
use a program effectively. This is what they want to stop. By altering
the chipset they can stop this on hardware level to some degree. That
is the main goal for apple.

Also the latest rumors suggest that Apple will continue to use intel
processors like Nehalem and even support Larabee GPU. So the target of
chipset change is only limited to the notebook sector IMO.  AMD and
Intel are soon becoming more proprietary with fusion and counter to
fusion for the notebook. Apple is only doing what they feel is right
by making their own chipset and they will not be supporting either for
notebook in the near future in that case.

Anyway the jump for AMD was inevitable. At this time of the year the
rumors run rampant and boost the tech stock. AMD also is on verge to
take back the crown on the GPU sector with the 4870x2. there 45nm
parts are going to be more competitive to penryn processors until
Nehalem hits mainstream prices and they have other hyped up chipsets
like the sb750 that was just released. Also puma is gaining ground on
its chipset features. At this point we will see a sharp spike and then
a sell out once intel and others flood the market with its next
generation.

I think you have it the wrong way around here. Steve Jobs has never
been one to let himself be strong-armed by anyone. He's going to do
what he wants- even if you're a behemoth like Intel. And actually, ATi
has been making chipsets for the Intel platform for a very long time
now. AMD/ATi does currently offer the best-performing integrated GPU
solution. It really isn't that much of a stretch at all, especially
when you think that Apple has been using ATi GPUs for a great many
years now also. Heck, I even remember seeing AMD chips in an old Mac
Performa from something like 15 years ago. I think it was the
integrated NIC, but not certain. Apple and AMD have been doing
business off-and-on for a long time.

Apple will go for the best product for their needs that will produce
the maximum profit. They've demonstrated that the actual price per
unit is irrelevant, the company that produces it is irrelevant
( they've used both ATI and NVDA in the recent past if not now) all
that matters is what Apple thinks people will buy.

There's two issues that I think people are bringing up. Will Apple
invest in AMD fabs? and will Apple start using AMD products soon?

My two cents, on the fabs, there's just not any real info that I have
seen, just a bunch of speculation based on rumors and unclear
comments. However, I do think it's highly likely to see AMD products
inside Mac's in the near future... IF AMD succeeds in producing better
products that Apple can use to get an extra edge.! That is not a 1%
increase in performance, but instead laptops that last twice as long
on battery power and when pluged to some sort of docking station you
can play the latest games on them ( puma + second beefy GC), and oh
yeah they still weight under 1.5kg when on the road and are really
really thin and sexy. If AMD produces products that can be used to
create little marvels as above, then Apple won't let it pass.

I think AMD is very close to succeeding this! Forget what you see as
puma laptops today, give it a while untill manufacturers figure out
how to unlock the potential of the puma... and I wouldn't be suprised
if pretty soon AMD starts rolling out new products based on puma that
are just a litle more efficient each time. That's what AMD is good at.
Making an inovative Idea into a product that at first seems to be
mediocre but as time passes the new versions get better and better.

The Future of Apple’s Chip Plans.
(http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/04/28/how-apples-pa-semi-
acquisition-fits-into-its-chip-history/)

Kudos: Daniel Eran Dilger
“...Now, the most significant data point to me about that
acquisition,” Randolph added, “is that PA Semi was founded by the man
who ran the DEC Alpha project. Apple can afford to develop a whole new
CPU architecture, and if Steve Jobs decides it’s worth the risk, then
the results could be fantastic. Imagine a processor designed
specifically to work well with the new generation of compilers from
the LLVM project. Not to mention, it would render cloning just about
impossible...”

“...PA Semi isn’t a small acquisition, however much Apple’s trying to
downplay it. The last company they spent hundreds of millions for was
NeXT. At $275M, I don’t believe this is just about better parts for
the phone. I think Steve’s got something bigger in mind, although we
probably won’t see the results for three years or more...”

"...Apple appears to have no real use for the PWRficient processor
line PA Semi has been developing, although the chip already has seen
significant interest from a variety of companies, particularly in
aerospace and defense. It is therefore somewhat ironic that there are
so many chip makers that have processor designs nobody seems to be
interested in..."

"...The next segment compares the contenders for the future of
microprocessors and points out why the tables are turning for the
historical market leverage Microsoft has enjoyed with the x86
architecture in the PC world..."

We are likely at the half way point of something spectacular.

It's likely not x86, it is an extension of one of Steve Jobs
grandiose / visionary pet projects while he was tooling around with
NeXT.  This new Apple servers and desktops will be the “Platform for
all Platforms” - with reserved hardware architecture for running other
operating systems.  I suspect it is likely 128 bit and highly
proprietary, there will be no clones.

Apple went the way of Intel because they were all but forced too, they
learned a lesson from Microsoft, Intel, HP, and Compaq,- Michael Dell
was very wet behind the ears when this lesson was unfolding.  Apple
finally figured out to be better meant more profitable, regardless of
true innovation.

Apple is financially poised to "Think Different" and change the game
again.  Seasoned engineers call Intel chips vanilla and clumsy for a
reason,- they are.  Outsourcing component design due to economies of
scale is a huge handicap and a very big ill for Apple - they hate
being told "no" and that is exactly what is happening with outsourced
chip vendors like Samsung and Intel.  It’s affecting their products
like the iPhone and creating obstacle along with burden on their
endeavors.  They are going to remove that obstacle, they are taking
back control.

Apple's transition is about going back to their roots of custom
tailored hardware.  Now that they succeeded in capturing and gaining
momentum with market share we are likely to see radical innovation.
That change will require partnerships some old and some new in the
industry.

Look at AMD's stock price.  This company is for sale.

Your comments for 'outsourcing' are exactly why I stay skeptical of
the claims that AMD will let go of their fabs entirely (it's one of
the reasons, at least). I figure they'll loan them to an extent, or
form a partnership to help run them, but they should never let go of
them, else they screw themselves in the long-term.

Most of your speculations are focusing more on Apple than on AMD,
really. Barely applies to here, but for the idea that AMD might be
supplying the manufacturing to facilitate some of this. But they won't
hand them over permanently and they shouldn't be bought out.

AMD will continue to thrive and exist.  They will be healthy again and
I think soon. Asset smart means they are going to retain their
intellectual property rights and get to pick and choose the best of
their businesses lines to compete against Intel.  For those endeavors
that require super complex fab facilities for R&D they are aligned
with IBM's 300nm fabs.  AMD learned a lesson here too,- in the future
bleading edge fabs will be leased and not appear as assets on their
books.  This will effectively put them on steroids financially in the
future.  One can easily speculate the less than cutting edge
manufacturing equipment and facilities for lines will be tasked with
appliance manufacture or other for X-Co while they figure out a
compromise to stay afloat.

So I hear Jim Cramer say shame on Hector, this may be true - It was
previously mentioned that Hector stepped down at AMD but it was also
mentioned that he will still play a role in the split to X-Co and that
is where all of his energy / attention is.

Anyone on this board out and around Hector's stomping grounds want to
dig around (Austin or Sunnyvale)...?

X-Co will likely receive some type of reciprocity from loyal AMD
shareholders.