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Message from discussion Excited About AMDs Future
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jsald...@gmail.com  
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 More options Nov 20 2007, 4:29 pm
From: jsald...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 20 Nov 2007 13:29:49 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 20 2007 4:29 pm
Subject: Re: Excited About AMDs Future

273...@gmail.com wrote:
> Fusion is too far in the future to say anything about it because AMD
> will have their new CPU launched by then that takes is up with
> nehalem.
> too many unknowns but both CPU's will be on 45nm.
> Like it is know AMD CPU's will stay behind intel for at least until
> their new CPU is launched in 2009.

A 2009 recovery is a very long shot.  They don't have enough working
capital to survive that long at their current burn rate.  The only way
they'll survive is if they: 1.) drastically reduce their spending, or
2.) receive a massive cash infusion from some nebulous source (another
investment offering? I don't know, are there that many suckers out
there?) or, 3.) are purchased by another company.  However, with their
massive debt load and non-competitive product lineup, a third-party
purchase is unattractive at best.  You can't sustain a company of this
size on graphics cards alone, unless of course they took the entire
market share, which is extremely unlikely (i.e. impossible given
current market conditions).  So, IMO, unless they outsource all their
fabs, they are most likely headed for bankruptcy.  However,
outsourcing the fabs will put them at a long-term competitive
disadvantage to Intel, due to the resulting cost structure... so this
won't be good news for the stock either.

I hate to rub it in your face, but those of you still holding on to
the stock should have listened to me when the stock was at $14.50
rather than simply relegating my opinion to one star.  I have very
valid, logical reasons for what I'm saying, and you need to think
seriously about why you're holding the stock.  If you're holding on
due to a potential recovery with the Fusion release, probably not a
smart move.  You'll make more money if you look for the next bottom
out price sometime in 2008.  Think about it, even if this stock
manages a massive rebound, you'll make a heck of a lot more money
buying in at $2 - $5/share than the current price point.  If they go
bankrupt, that doesn't necessarily mean they out altogether, but that
DOES mean you may be able to pick up a  huge amount of stock for $0.50
- $0.80/share.  Of course, you'll need to carefully weigh your
decision at that point in time and perform some sort of risk
analysis.  I still say SELL, before it hits $8/share.


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