I somewhat agree with your determination about VLO closing down on the
$25 mark however; my theory is built around valuation. Furthermore,
the high oil cost last year drove the margins down causing the stock
to fall quite significantly to current levels. Yes, one can argue that
we traded 6 months forward versus current.

My concern is the risk that current administration has on oil prices.
Unlike prior Bush Jr. administration, I can see Obama tapping
emergency reserves and flooding supply into the market driving those
costs down quite significantly. It would be hard to argue that this
administation won't conduct such an action given the current state of
the economy. High oil will just send the liquidity intended for local
stimulus overseas and the current administration will (understandably)
avoid with all costs.

My magic ball sees oil prices at $35. While a lot of people may see
that unreasonable, over the past 70 years the average on an inflation
adjusted basis is just under $20. I find a 70 year moving average more
reliable then this retalitory action being experienced due to current
foreign policy. The show in energy will cease. We are just entering
the second episode of last years pump and dump. If emergency reserves
are released, all speculators will get burned severely and less likely
to hold the same posture.

Not that I am one to post my resume on this board but I called the
collapse on the futures last year within a couple of basis points. I
was strongly in favor of emergency reserves then however; don't feel
that Obama will allow it to happen. He notably does not hesitate to
launch glorified stimulus packages nor express concern with altering
the course of free markets. I am not a fan of his approach nor his
administation however; he is pridictable and unpridictable

On Jun 10, 9:50 pm, mickeyspritz <michael.hu...@gmail.com> wrote: