Valero Energy Corp. Google Group

December option calls at 16 a good idea?

deathgrou...@yahoo.com (Harold the Wiser) — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 23:06:39 UT

Think about it folks.

Re: Where does VLO go from here?

sgtj...@yahoo.com (traderjoe) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:01:29 UT

I know GS upgraded TSO, but also they are not fond of VLO. I prefer to
buy when everyone else is selling.
Also, since TSO is a refiner, I rather not invest in two companies in
the same industry, both charts seem tracking each other anyway. If you
are intersted in another short term play, check out steel stocks such

Re: Where does VLO go from here?

v8c5vett...@aol.com (V8C5) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:40:48 UT

Nice! I am new to the energy sector, so any helpful info u got please
let me know. I bought VLO just on the technicals on Thursday when it
hit16.30. I my price target is almost in line w/ yours at 19 and
change. Hey traderjoe what do u think about TSO, it just got an
upgrade at GS and was thinking about getting in. The technicals look

Re: Where does VLO go from here?

sgtj...@yahoo.com (traderjoe) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:15:20 UT

Refiners profit increase when the price of Crude drops but Retail
gasoline rises. This can only occur when refining capacity is
limited...guess what, its been limited since the Katrina days and is
getting smaller. The refiners seem to be doing the right thing by
shutting down plants. I would not be surprised to see if some Chinese

Where does VLO go from here?

v8c5vett...@aol.com (V8C5) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:15:45 UT

IT bounced off of the support level on Thursday and opened higher
today. It should move higher just on the tech's but with the
possiblity of a buyout come can't hurt either. Any thoughts?

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Spam

frank1...@gmail.com (Frank) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 03:43:19 UT

Re: valero returns to mallorca....

cxtu...@msn.com (Kay) — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:04:33 UT

IMHO, and nothing more than that, VLO more likely to rise than fall
next week. Based on technicals only. Day traders? Option writers?
------------------------------ ------------------

Re: valero returns to mallorca....

drethe...@gmail.com (DreTheMad) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:28:09 UT

man they have an awful history with that. I can't wait until it reads
something like "Valero indicted on drug trafficing" and the stock
plummets.

Re: valero returns to mallorca....

frankz...@gmail.com (Googoo Masta) — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 02:10:13 UT

haha...courtesy of google crappy news feeder....

valero returns to mallorca....

thomasabl...@gmail.com (Thomas Blair) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:07:38 UT

wtf? i did not realize this company played soccer.

Re: Valero

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:17:26 UT

Lest I jinx this

Re: How hi?

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:40:43 UT

Stock price is subjective. It's based largely on perceived future
value and the actual balance sheet (For those who look at it). I'm not
so sure your reason is one I'd accept readily since other's don't seem
to follow that trend. Anyway, it was just an observation -- probably
nothing significant to it.

Re: How hi?

simmo...@gmail.com (ASimmons) — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:09:06 UT

Every company should see a drop in share price after they pay
dividends. Its because they are giving away part of the company's
earnings. If the company is worth less, the stock price will show that
by dropping..

Re: How hi?

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 16:26:54 UT

It'll still go lower. . .

Re: How hi?

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:25:51 UT

Still waiting for the 17's again.......

Re: How hi?

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:58:17 UT

I left at $18.15. Agter looking at the historical it appears like VLO
drops after they pay dividends. I'll jump back in when it drops in the
17's somewhere.

Re: How hi?

dmans...@gmail.com (David Victor) — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 20:43:54 UT

Yah, VLO is only one of the largest refiners in N.America. So why
should it climb. Heck, gas prices are great, they keep going down. The
Arabs love us. Our economy is getting away from petrolium and everyone
who's anyone uses solar. . . . . Sure, it'll see $14 within the hour.

Re: How hi?

skier1...@gmail.com (xterra) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 18:00:45 UT

VLO and SUN will double in

Re: How hi?

bloomstin...@yahoo.com (Moordred) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:17:46 UT

In order for VLO to be 14 something severe has to happen. Like another
recession.

This stock will float back up slowly but, surely. I would expect next
quarter to be back in the green.
20-21 by mid fall, I suspect.

Re: How hi?

rah...@gmail.com (rahbii) — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:16:29 UT

wow.

Re: How hi?

philmyeba...@yahoo.com (whatforer) — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:03:35 UT

This stock will see 14. No reason to buy up here. Don"t hold your
breath on gas prices. This stock has enough problems.

Re: How hi?

bloomstin...@yahoo.com (Moordred) — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 16:00:01 UT

It already did.

It was trading around 23 just before Valero anounced it was going to
post a lost and sell more stocks to increase cash supplies.

Might be a little spike but, not dropping 5 bucks like it did.
Escpecially with the rumor that gas prices are going to go up 30 cents
per gallon in the next few weeks.

Re: What's happening with VLO

jwunder2...@gmail.com (henrywayne34) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:19:32 UT

Dude you need to look closer at the numbers. Valero has 1.7 billion in
cash and 516 million shares outstanding. 1700 / 516 = 3.32. Valero has
no where close to 27 dollars in cash per share!

Re: What's happening with VLO

hetven...@gmail.com (77) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:21:29 UT

The numbers are correct, but it's the book value or equity value of
the company. It has nothing to do with cash as they are not
equivalent.
Holding cash is riskless. Operating an asset like a refinery is
associated with risks. Not only technical ones but financial ones as
well.
Most of the refineries are burning cash this year as oil price rallied

Re: What's happening with VLO

kennbartl...@gmail.com (NewDelhi) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:41:17 UT

I'm still long but how the F*** is VLO holding up today??? Amazing
performance. All my oscillators say SELL, OBV, RSI, Stocastic... all
giving SELL signals. That's when you know you're in the right stock
when it goes against ALL indicators! YEAH baby!

Re: What's happening with VLO

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:53:16 UT

If this company is liquidated and bondholders are paid back fully, you
still have 15.8 billions for shareholders. That would be $27-28. Right
now, buyers below $17 are getting a bargain.

Re: What's happening with VLO

hetven...@gmail.com (77) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:26:47 UT

Right, but the equity means assets (mainly refineries) minus net debt.
This is no cash.

Re: What's happening with VLO

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:50:15 UT

15.8 billion for equity.

Re: What's happening with VLO

hetven...@gmail.com (77) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:35:28 UT

There is no significant cash holding here. According to the latest
Bloomberg data, net DEBT is around $10 / share.
On the other hand, asset value is much higher than current share
price.

Re: What's happening with VLO

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:52:20 UT

$50 that VLO will jump like a beast after July ER.

VLO's current cash holding is currently $27-28/share. P/E ratio does
not mean jack right now. Once VLO turns in positive cash flow in Oct
ER, this stock will go back to its book value, and possibly a little
bit more.

The refining business is one of those brick and mortar businesses that

Re: What's happening with VLO

ripc...@gmail.com (ripcats) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:32:09 UT

Valero on June 2 AMC gave Q2 guidance of -.50... until then, analyst
estimates had been in the range of about .70 cents a share (if memory
serves)... that's a huge adjustment to make on share price.

[link]

Re: What's happening with VLO

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:15:13 UT

Stop stressing out.

You should hope that they drop this thing further. I am waiting for my
buy target number here.

What's happening with VLO

kennbartl...@gmail.com (NewDelhi) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:17:21 UT

I was reading this article:

"Valero recently reported its first quarter 2009 results. The company
announced that its net income was 59 cents per share, compared to 48
cents per share in the first quarter of 2008. “We reported positive
earnings despite weaker demand,” said Bill Klesse, Valero’s Chairman

Re: Armageddon PRICING

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 19:25:10 UT

LOL

The largest US refinerer trading at about 1/2 of its book value. This
company isnt going anywhere. I will be adding more at $14.00/share on
this baby. If they tank it to single digits, I will be doubling down
on my position. There is no need to rush things here. This thing has a
solid business plan that will produce revenue in the future. Unless

Re: Armageddon PRICING

kennbartl...@gmail.com (NewDelhi) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:30:05 UT

WELL apparently we are going back to $14. Nice, I just bought calls
today too.... what a peach this stock is.

Re: Armageddon PRICING

kennbartl...@gmail.com (NewDelhi) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:37:55 UT

Analyst UPGRADE marks TOP... DOWNGRADE marks the BOTTOM. As a general
rule these analysts are always late on the call, the stock move
anticipates this stuff. From the March low we are at a double bottom
right here at $15.70. Risk/Reward says buy with a tight stop.

Re: Armageddon PRICING

tridu...@gmail.com (Dream_Master) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:09:53 UT

Don't worry.

This is a buying opportunity. I am looking to buy more at its 52 week
low at $14.00 here.

Re: Armageddon PRICING

dam...@grassart.com (Damien) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:03:16 UT

No kidding, I'm taking the opportunity to buy more at this price. The
market is pricing it lower than in March when the S&P was in the 600s.
I don't think the stock offering should have caused that much of a
hit, if anything it will let them pay off some debt giving them a
better balance sheet.

Armageddon PRICING

kennbartl...@gmail.com (NewDelhi) — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:45:34 UT

I guess the Armageddon trade is back on here in VLO. What is this
stock doing at $16 a share and going lower???? It's that bad huh?
Traffic here in Los Angeles is worse than ever. This is absolute panic
induced by firms that hold interest in these stocks and want to
accumulate lower. Do not sell into the panic, this is the lower end of

Re: Why so low?

burk...@gmail.com (Brian) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:19:51 UT

I've been wondering the same thing.... I bought this anticipating a
significant 6 month increase - either way, VLO's business model is to
expand during down markets, and it is a model company - i'm holding
mine, i expect this to be a real bull on the upswing.

Why so low?

tfm....@comcast.net (Tom) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:12:37 UT

As of 3/31/9, VLO book value is $30.45 coming off a quareter where EPS
was $0.60.

Even with the anticipated ($0.50) per share loss for Q2 and a 40
million share common stock offering at $18 per share (generating $720
million in equity), the new Book Value remains at $29.09.

Shareholders Equity

Re: 71 Dollars a barrel, Production cuts is Saudi Arabia, Big businesses fearing next oil rally. Come people Buy Already

rangerh...@gmail.com (Ranger Trade) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 18:41:11 UT

I somewhat agree with your determination about VLO closing down on the
$25 mark however; my theory is built around valuation. Furthermore,
the high oil cost last year drove the margins down causing the stock
to fall quite significantly to current levels. Yes, one can argue that
we traded 6 months forward versus current.

71 Dollars a barrel, Production cuts is Saudi Arabia, Big businesses fearing next oil rally. Come people Buy Already

michael.hu...@gmail.com (mickeyspritz) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 04:50:19 UT

Don't be foolded. There is another oil rally closing in fast. Look at
the pumps, look at production cuts. Demand is rising. Don't get in
late. This stock can't be held down much longer. Will be at 25 before
July 4th. Mark my words. All news and idicators are pointing toward
another rally.

Re: News holding this stock low?

zalman...@gmail.com — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:16:58 UT

That's why VLO is so low:

Valero Energy Corp. has priced its public offering of 40 million
shares of common stock at a price of $18 per share. Barclays Capital
and J.P. Morgan Securities are the joint book-runners
The offering is scheduled to close on June 9. The company has also
granted the underwriters an option to purchase an additional six

News holding this stock low?

popsy...@gmail.com — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 18:58:01 UT

How is the fact that 2 people held up some local Valero store relevant
to this stock? A small fire that was out in half an hour? Someone
higher up is afraid the stock will ignite.

Re: "A Top In Oil Is Nearby. Termites Will Destroy The House."

ab5ebd...@gmail.com (Mike Crownover) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:28:44 UT

I follow VLO and also stocks that benefit with higher oil prices for a
balanced approach. I have had good returns with oil field service/
exploration company's recently as the price has edged up, due to
speculation that there will be more exploration going on as the price
of crude supports it.

Re: "A Top In Oil Is Nearby. Termites Will Destroy The House."

fwa...@gmail.com — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:23:28 UT

Very good explanation. So VLO will benefit if crude oil prices drop.
I'll try to find the correlation over the weekend.

Re: "A Top In Oil Is Nearby. Termites Will Destroy The House."

dmans...@gmail.com — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:00:06 UT

But oil companies like VLO, XOM, MRO don't just make gasoline -- they
also make a lot of other chemicals for plastics and such. If consumers
are switching away from those materials then their forced to compete
on an overly mature product line -- hence their profit dwindles or
they lose money.

Re: "A Top In Oil Is Nearby. Termites Will Destroy The House."

timothyrb...@gmail.com — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 17:40:26 UT

Here's an oversimplified explanation. I'll ignore the futures market
and hedging. VLO buys crude oil, refines it, and sells the gasoline.

The more VLO pays for crude, the more it has to charge for refined
gasoline. However there is a lot of pressure from consumers and
politicians to lower prices at the pump. Thus even if the price of