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  How was this a good thing?
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bon...@gmail.com  
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(1 user)  More options Apr 15 2008, 8:50 pm
From: bon...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:50:52 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Apr 15 2008 8:50 pm
Subject: How was this a good thing?
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They didn't change their guidance?!?!?  How can that be?  They dropped
an entire component of their business.  Surely any analyst listening
to that call will recommend selling tomorrow, Killinger was ridiculed
by his own shareholders.  To which he's replied "have faith" and "this
is the worst crisis since the great depression".

Maybe it is for WaMu, but ask JPM how they feel about it...

How did they not change guidance?  Please, anybody explain.


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drac...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 15 2008, 10:31 pm
From: drac...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2008 19:31:54 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Apr 15 2008 10:31 pm
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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He hired Johnny Cochran to use the "Chewbacca Defense" (South park
reference). From the looks of things, the jury bought it lol

I wonder how long this house of cards will stand lol.


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bon...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 12:06 am
From: bon...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:06:23 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 12:06 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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My favorite part is that the after hours trading brought the stock
higher.  Oh, well, I guess since the losses were in line with the
preannounced losses from a week ago, never mind they were over 150% of
what analysts initially predicted.

If any analyst upgrades them on this news, I will never listen to that
company's analysts again (Davidson already on the list).


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joe.g...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 1:07 am
From: joe.g...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2008 22:07:44 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 1:07 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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You know it's bad, when you heawr the' "have some faith..." line. lol.
When (!) is LEH gonna go?! Anyone?

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gtg2...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 8:11 am
From: gtg2...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 05:11:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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yeah, "have some faith"...that's something you hear in a heated
argument between husband and wife. Not with shareholders. There is no
faith. There are numbers.

I honestly cannot begin to explain why the stock up was AH...it
shouldn't have been. But then again, this stock rallied 30% on the TPG
deal. This stock defies logic.

But as a short, I'm not concerned. I am very much in the money and no
dead cat bounce is going to ruffle my feathers here.

At least it isn't rising premarket.


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Uncommon Cents  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 8:41 am
From: Uncommon Cents <airwic...@hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 05:41:21 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 8:41 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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FYI - IT'S UP IN PREMARKET THIS AM !

I thought cats only had nine lives...


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bon...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 9:02 am
From: bon...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:02:14 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 9:02 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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the whole market's going way up premarket, that's what it is I guess.

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Uncommon Cents  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 9:09 am
From: Uncommon Cents <airwic...@hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:09:58 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 9:09 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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either that or we live on the moon where's there's zero gravity and
dead cats bounce forever...


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merkit@gmail.com  
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(1 user)  More options Apr 16 2008, 9:44 am
From: "mer...@gmail.com" <mer...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:44:34 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 9:44 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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bon...@gmail.com wrote:
> They didn't change their guidance?!?!?  How can that be?  They dropped
> an entire component of their business.  Surely any analyst listening
> to that call will recommend selling tomorrow, Killinger was ridiculed
> by his own shareholders.  To which he's replied "have faith" and "this
> is the worst crisis since the great depression".

> Maybe it is for WaMu, but ask JPM how they feel about it...

> How did they not change guidance?  Please, anybody explain.

In the earning conference call they announced that they were no longer
going to provide guidance about how much they were expecting to put
into their loan-loss provisions for the rest of 2008.

They did show some numbers that changed their income projections to
the range of $5.6 to $5.8 billion for the year with an expense
projection of $8.4 to $8.6 billion for the year.  By my math that is a
projected loss of $1.6 to $2 billion for the year.  It was unclear to
me if that was a full year projection, or a remaining 3 quarters
projection.

They also are projecting between $12 billion and $19 billion
cumulative losses on their loan portfolio in the next 3 to 4 years and
stated that they were expecting the loan-loss provisioning to peak in
2008.  They have about $4 billion in loan-loss provisioning on the
book now, so at least that much more during the year and perhaps a lot
more.  That projected cumulative loss is alarmingly close to their net
equity before "the deal" which they showed as being around $20
billion.  I pretty much took that to mean that the new infusion is
really the book value of WaMu as it was indeed nearly 0 before when
you try to do an honest accounting for the value of their loans.  They
showed a bar graph in the earning talk that gave me that impression.

Not sure why there was a huge bounce this morning, but I don't see how
it could possibly sustain itself.


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bon...@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 10:03 am
From: bon...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 07:03:09 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 10:03 am
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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lol, 7% drop in first 20 min. of trading.  Somebody figured out the
cat was dead I guess.  Oh, and another downgrade.

BTW, thanks merkit!  I was at work and couldn't watch (damn
California).


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merkit@gmail.com  
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 More options Apr 16 2008, 12:13 pm
From: "mer...@gmail.com" <mer...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 09:13:50 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Apr 16 2008 12:13 pm
Subject: Re: How was this a good thing?
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bon...@gmail.com wrote:
> lol, 7% drop in first 20 min. of trading.  Somebody figured out the
> cat was dead I guess.  Oh, and another downgrade.

> BTW, thanks merkit!  I was at work and couldn't watch (damn
> California).

I'm just annoyed my funds don't clear for options trading until
tomorrow.  They were just giving put options away during the spike
this morning.  With any luck it will spike again tomorrow :)

That was one angry crowd during the shareholders meeting.

I figured today would be volatile and heavy volume, but I thought it
would bounce between 9.50 and 10.50 instead of between 10 and 11.
Should have started the day with cash instead of a position.  Oh well,
can't win them all.


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End of messages  

« Newer discussion  -  WaMu announced another massive loss and warned there may be as much as $19 billion in more bad loans on its books   One Penny Dividend  -  Older discussion »




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