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I'm no big trader but I have been in the coffee roasting biz for over
27 years and I don't see the bottom for at least 6-8 more months and maybe even more. Folks that use to buy 5-8 coffee drinks per day have cut way back. Our roasting firm is very small compared to sbux. We have just over 1600 wholesale customers (privately owned coffee houses) and most are running down on there volume. The big plus for use is we are private and debt free. It takes seconds for us to turn the ship. We have just over 100 people working for us, the average 16 years. The thought of SBUX laying off 12,000 is a hard pill. This should have never happened if there managment was strong. People can say what they want about the old managment (Howard) taking over. What I see, being right in the middle of this industry is more of the same...no real vision. Think about it, most everybody if they are motivated can grow in good times, but you find out what kind of person folks are when times are hard. So far since Howard took over, the stock has tanked. And to be very honest I don't think he had moved far from the decision making before he took the helm back. Like I said "I'm no big trader" but I have been rowing my own boat for a long time. I've seen hundreds of Howards come and go! Is sbux going to go away? I don't think so, but like the dot.com folks back 12 years ago, there still here, just fewer of them. |
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well now I'm curious as to to what your brand is, of course i
understand if you wouldn't want to divulge that info... anyway, I'm not a great trader or anything but here are some thoughts on bottom fishing. Be prepared to average down by not investing all the capital at once. Another consideration would be to buy puts as downside insurance or sell calls. |
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If you think it's going to 10 then it's not too late... I own puts so
I personally don't think it's too late once this "growth" stock is recognized for what it is, a troubled company (albeit with a good brand) in a horrible market. Their products are expensive (some may say overpriced) and one of the first items to do without during these tough times. BTW, I also did the same with Whole Foods and I like both establishments... but not the stocks. Those of you looking at long-term prospects, let the market shake-out |
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fortunately many people know that Starbucks stand for coffee. if
people dont know much about Starbucks, they might have thought that SBUX is a financial company with loads of sub-prime investments (from the way the stock price has been falling)
Mr. Big wrote:
> Wow, the bottom is really falling out of this stock. |
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I can see this company easily falling bellow $10/share, since the
growth has seemed to have fizzed out over the short-medium term, and the charges that the company is going to take for store closures. I still think it'll fall to at least a market p/e, but now the "e" will be lower. I could be wrong, but it does seem very likely. |
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agreed
Mr. Big wrote:
> I can see this company easily falling bellow $10/share, since the > growth has seemed to have fizzed out over the short-medium term, and > the charges that the company is going to take for store closures. I > still think it'll fall to at least a market p/e, but now the "e" will > be lower. I could be wrong, but it does seem very likely. |
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