> I put together a model with some single digit sales growth and nominal
> margins going forward. It seems that they are worth more like $24 to
> $25. If recent price increases and lower milk prices have more impact
> than my assumptions, shares could be worth more.
> If you want to see the numbers, I posted them at:
> invalueable.net/forum/view/493

> All the short arguments seem emotional and hopeful rather than based
> on some long-term business impairment. P/E ratios don't help much when
> companies have gone through a period of write-offs that distort
> earnings. SBUX closed unprofitable stores that were likely stealing
> business away from close by stores rather than serving new customers.
> This usually impacts profits over a few quarters and then improves
> margins by reducing SG&A overhead.I adjusted SG&A down just slightly
> in the future having it return to historical averages.

> All the short arguments seem emotional and hopeful rather than based
> on some long-term business impairment. P/E ratios don't help much
> when
> companies have gone through a period of write-offs that distort
> earnings. SBUX closed unprofitable stores that were likely stealing
> business away from close by stores rather than serving new customers.
> This usually impacts profits over a few quarters and then improves
> margins by reducing SG&A overhead.I adjusted SG&A down just slightly
> in the future having it return to historical averages.

> "P/E ratios don't help much when
> companies have gone through a period of write-offs that distort
> earnings."

> Whoa, whoa, whoa hwhat??
> The only distortion is that SBUX earnings were distorted up!! As in if
> you save a cost one time your earnings will look better only that one
> time. That's exactly what they did. Next year when they have already
> leaned down, there will be nothing to cut to boost profits!!  Which is
> why having a P/E ratio this high is even more lucrative. A P/E ratio
> over 30 tends to mean rapid growth or widespread belief of growth to
> be in the future. Starbucks is closing stores. Starbucks is cutting
> costs just to make a profit. So it is actually at the exact opposite
> and should be trading around 15 times earnings (or lower), because
> growth looks unlikely.

> If you had the market cap, and you bought starbucks it would take 61
> years to get your money back. (when you throw in time value of money,
> it would cost far far far longer probably over 100 years) Needless to
> say 100 year payback period is awful, and so is this stock's price.

> On Sep 9, 10:48 am, Steve <spend...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I put together a model with some single digit sales growth and nominal
> > margins going forward. It seems that they are worth more like $24 to
> > $25. If recent price increases and lower milk prices have more impact
> > than my assumptions, shares could be worth more.
> > If you want to see the numbers, I posted them at:
> > invalueable.net/forum/view/493

> > All the short arguments seem emotional and hopeful rather than based
> > on some long-term business impairment. P/E ratios don't help much when
> > companies have gone through a period of write-offs that distort
> > earnings. SBUX closed unprofitable stores that were likely stealing
> > business away from close by stores rather than serving new customers.
> > This usually impacts profits over a few quarters and then improves
> > margins by reducing SG&A overhead.I adjusted SG&A down just slightly
> > in the future having it return to historical averages.

> If it's worth 20$ and it trades at 20$, then it has a P/E ratio of 1?

> On Sep 9, 8:42 am, 1977 <ca.peabod...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > "The stock is worth maybe $14."
> > -Call by Mr. Big... hahahahahahahahaaa

> > Now might be a good time to change that nickname of yours.

> > I said SBUX is worth $20... it's currently trading for $20...

> > Good luck day trading, amateurs.

> > On Aug 4, 2:16 pm, "Mr. Big" <evanble...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > The stock is worth maybe $14.

> > > On Aug 3, 1:11 pm, Ian <ian.ri...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Its been one day... are you seriously taunting someone's call after
> > > > one day?  Wow you must be some kind of CFA or Wharton MBA right?

> > > > On Aug 3, 12:46 pm, "C. Peabody" <ca.peabod...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Brilliant move, bud... just brilliant.... how do you do it?

> > > > > On Aug 3, 12:17 pm, classicrock71 <classicroc...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Im shorting at 17.70

> > > > > > On Jul 31, 8:29 pm, Dionysus <dionysustheolymp...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > Anybody shorting this yet?

> > > > > > > On Jul 31, 1:40 am, G-Money <cgriffi...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > > Buying 5-10 dollar coffees once again.  But... SBUX is a SOLID BUY,
> > > > > > > > yeah, SOLID!- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> "The stock is worth maybe $14."
> -Call by Mr. Big... hahahahahahahahaaa

> Now might be a good time to change that nickname of yours.

> I said SBUX is worth $20... it's currently trading for $20...

> Good luck day trading, amateurs.

> On Aug 4, 2:16 pm, "Mr. Big" <evanble...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > The stock is worth maybe $14.

> > On Aug 3, 1:11 pm, Ian <ian.ri...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Its been one day... are you seriously taunting someone's call after
> > > one day?  Wow you must be some kind of CFA or Wharton MBA right?

> > > On Aug 3, 12:46 pm, "C. Peabody" <ca.peabod...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Brilliant move, bud... just brilliant.... how do you do it?

> > > > On Aug 3, 12:17 pm, classicrock71 <classicroc...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Im shorting at 17.70

> > > > > On Jul 31, 8:29 pm, Dionysus <dionysustheolymp...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Anybody shorting this yet?

> > > > > > On Jul 31, 1:40 am, G-Money <cgriffi...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > Buying 5-10 dollar coffees once again.  But... SBUX is a SOLID BUY,
> > > > > > > yeah, SOLID!- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> I don't think you are making a strong bearish argument when your using
> a p/e as central to your point, when that p/e is based off of horrible
> numbers during a re-organizing of the business. .01, .09, .03 and then
> the good quarter .20 which kick started the recent rise in the stock.
> If you assume the poor three quarters are thus anomalies that occurred
> during the time when sbux was closing bad stores and cutting blotted
> corporate jobs and just take .20 times 4 the p/e at $20 a share is 25.

> I am not saying you can't make a bearish case, but yelling, oh man the
> p/e is 60, that is ridiculously high doesn't explore the whole story.
> Personally I sold half my stake at 18 for a nice gain and predicted
> then that it would trade flat till nov. earnings. Those earnings will
> be telling.

> On Aug 1, 1:51 pm, Hello Yall <sayhellotoy...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Starbucks is no longer a growth story. Google Finance shows a PE ratio
> > of 55.3 for SBUX. Unemployment is still rising and lofty earnings
> > estimates alone cannot  counter today's economic reality. From a low
> > of $7 to $17.75 I view SBUX today as overpriced.- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Starbucks is no longer a growth story. Google Finance shows a PE ratio
> of 55.3 for SBUX. Unemployment is still rising and lofty earnings
> estimates alone cannot  counter today's economic reality. From a low
> of $7 to $17.75 I view SBUX today as overpriced.

> Lines all day long......

> Up we go!

> "The stock is worth maybe $14."
> -Call by Mr. Big... hahahahahahahahaaa

> Now might be a good time to change that nickname of yours.

> I said SBUX is worth $20... it's currently trading for $20...

> Good luck day trading, amateurs.

> On Aug 4, 2:16 pm, "Mr. Big" <evanble...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > The stock is worth maybe $14.

> > On Aug 3, 1:11 pm, Ian <ian.ri...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Its been one day... are you seriously taunting someone's call after
> > > one day?  Wow you must be some kind of CFA or Wharton MBA right?

> > > On Aug 3, 12:46 pm, "C. Peabody" <ca.peabod...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Brilliant move, bud... just brilliant.... how do you do it?

> > > > On Aug 3, 12:17 pm, classicrock71 <classicroc...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Im shorting at 17.70

> > > > > On Jul 31, 8:29 pm, Dionysus <dionysustheolymp...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > Anybody shorting this yet?

> > > > > > On Jul 31, 1:40 am, G-Money <cgriffi...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > > Buying 5-10 dollar coffees once again.  But... SBUX is a SOLID BUY,
> > > > > > > yeah, SOLID!- Hide quoted text -

> > > > > > - Show quoted text -

> I put together a model with some single digit sales growth and nominal
> margins going forward. It seems that they are worth more like $24 to
> $25. If recent price increases and lower milk prices have more impact
> than my assumptions, shares could be worth more.
> If you want to see the numbers, I posted them at:
> invalueable.net/forum/view/493

> All the short arguments seem emotional and hopeful rather than based
> on some long-term business impairment. P/E ratios don't help much when
> companies have gone through a period of write-offs that distort
> earnings. SBUX closed unprofitable stores that were likely stealing
> business away from close by stores rather than serving new customers.
> This usually impacts profits over a few quarters and then improves
> margins by reducing SG&A overhead.I adjusted SG&A down just slightly
> in the future having it return to historical averages.