Gmail Calendar Documents Reader Web more »
Help | Sign in
Go to Google Groups Home
  
Discussions for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. View all discussions
  How, exactly, does this happen?
All 25 messages in discussion  - 
Reporting discussion
Messages reported
The group you are posting to is a Usenet group. Messages posted to this group will make your email address visible to anyone on the Internet.
Your reply message has not been sent.
Your post was successful
 
From:
To:
Cc:
Followup To:
Add Cc | Add Followup-to | Edit Subject
Subject:
Validation:
For verification purposes please type the characters you see in the picture below or the numbers you hear by clicking the accessibility icon. Listen and type the numbers you hear
 
Sean Connelly  
View profile  
(4 users)  More options Sep 15 2008, 6:05 am
From: Sean Connelly <sean.m.conne...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 03:05:54 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:05 am
Subject: How, exactly, does this happen?
How are these banks failing, exactly?  I understand the basic idea...
they gave out bad loans... but specifically, how does this work?

1. Bank collects peoples money
2. Bank loans money back out to people who want to buy a house
3. People buy houses they can't afford
4. ???
5. Bank is screwed and has to file for bankruptcy

I'm sorry if I'm asking a stupid question... but I always read the
news articles, and nothing explains exactly what's going on.  Thank
you for your patience.

~Sean


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
chris_desbar...@yahoo.com  
View profile  
(53 users)  More options Sep 15 2008, 6:32 pm
From: chris_desbar...@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:32:47 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:32 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
It's complicated, but here's the 30-second version of what happened
with Bear Stearns and Lehman:

People went to traditional banks and mortgage brokers and bought
mortgages.  All of these mortgages carry different amounts (e.g.
$100,000 mortgage vs. a $500,000 mortgage) and different risk levels.
The ones that are more likely to default have a higher interest rate,
so the bank stands to gain more money...but at a greater risk of the
home owner defaulting on the mortgage.

The problem with this is it is very difficult to balance your risk-
reward ratio.  So they created an investment vehicle called a mortgage-
backed security (MBS).  This is reffered to as a "derivative" because
it is based off of the mortgage.  The way it works is the banks
chopped up all these different mortgages into different securities
that were worth different amounts and different risk levels.  They
then sold these to other banks and investments firms.  The firms who
bought these MBS then received a payment based off of the mortgages.
For the banks selling MBS, it helped them pool risk and generate
capital, and for the firms who bought the MBS, it provided a source of
cash flow with what was thought to be a very safe,secure underlying
commodity: real estate.

Since real estate was so "safe," these banks used huge amounts of
leverage (borrowed money to buy the securities) because they didn't
think they were that risky.  Some firms, like Lehman, were leveraged
30:1, meaning that for every $30 they borrowed, they had $1 of
underlying assets.  That would be like you making $1000 a year but
taking out a loan of $30,000.

While all this is going on, people are buying up adjustable interest
rate mortgages (ARMs).  They offer a cheap introductory rate, but then
skyrocket.  So all of a sudden, all these people discovered they
couldn't make their monthly payments.  The default rate shot through
the roof.  The firms that had purchased MBS did so based on certain
calculations of default.  In other words, X number of people could
default on their mortgages, but they could still make a profit and
have a positive cash-flow.  However, when the default rate shot up,
this threw all of their calculations off.

Now the firms faced a real problem.  They had HUGE amounts of debt on
their balance sheets, and the assets that were supposed to balance
that debt were becoming worth less and less because of the rising
default rate and the drop in housing prices.  These are the "write-
downs" that you hear about.  The firms had to pay interest on that
debt, but they did not have the corresponding cash flow to be able to
pay the debt.  Lehman, for example, had $5.4B of debt obligations last
quarter, but only had $2.3B in income.

When you can't pay your debt obligations, that's called being
insolvent.  Many people think that bankruptcy is caused by having more
liabilities than assets, but that's not true.  It's caused when you
can't make good on your debts, so the repo man comes and claims your
assets in order to make up for it.  When that happens, you have to
file for bankruptcy in order to make sure that people get paid in the
correct order because otherwise different creditors are going to be
suing you to make sure they get what you owe them.

So that's where we are now with Lehman.  They couldn't pay their
debts, so they had to file for bankruptcy.

Make sense?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
edisu...@gmail.com  
View profile  
(1 user)  More options Sep 15 2008, 6:37 pm
From: edisu...@gmail.com
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:37:53 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:37 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
EXCELLENT summary imho.


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
la_isl...@yahoo.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 15 2008, 6:47 pm
From: la_isl...@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:47:40 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:47 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
And not a single one of those suckers will give you a shot at those
depressed houses.
Go to any bank site and look what their REO properties are going for.
They've been writing the asset down and keeping the asset.  Writing
them down right into Bankruptcy yet keepin the assets to themselves,
WTF!  Today you just paid some deadbeat banker and helped put another
deadbeat into a new home.

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
blueskies  
View profile  
(1 user)  More options Sep 15 2008, 6:07 pm
From: blueskies <blueskie...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:07:12 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:07 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
4. Those people simply don't pay those loans that they got 100%
financing on.  The bank takes over the ownership of the home and then
ends up having to sell it at a lower price than the original cost
because of home values going down all over the U.S.

That is my understanding of what's going on. Correct me if I'm wrong
anyone.


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
Chris  
View profile  
 More options Sep 15 2008, 6:55 pm
From: Chris <ChrisTheLinux...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:55:11 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 15 2008 6:55 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
That was very lucid and very well written. Best post I've seen on
Google Finance.

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
Deepak  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 6:18 am
From: Deepak <believedee...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 03:18:25 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 6:18 am
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Good explaination. Very brief but at the same time very descriptive.
Thanks


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
joe.m.deci...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 11:00 am
From: joe.m.deci...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 08:00:48 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 11:00 am
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Great Explanation

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
joe.m.deci...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 12:56 pm
From: joe.m.deci...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 09:56:45 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 12:56 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Sean Connelly from Refinery?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
avisams...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 1:16 pm
From: AviSams...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:16:27 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 1:16 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Thanks Chris for the wonderful explanation. It seems clear what
happened.
With this knowledge and analysis available to you, would you now
recommend buying the Lehamn stock?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
vaidygau...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 3:49 pm
From: vaidygau...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 12:49:37 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 3:49 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Rightly said...
But why is the government bailing out these companies. This is wrong
use of exchequers money ?
What is the future of companies after filling chapter 11 bankruptcy ?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
shrinivas.viswan...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 4:54 pm
From: shrinivas.viswan...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:54:59 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 4:54 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Chris,

Thanks for the explanation, that was really helpful -- I have a
question though:

chris_desbar...@yahoo.com wrote:
> Some firms, like Lehman, were leveraged
> 30:1, meaning that for every $30 they borrowed, they had $1 of
> underlying assets.  That would be like you making $1000 a year but
> taking out a loan of $30,000.

With the money that they leveraged, why isn't it the case that they
invested that $30 into some high interest yielding investment that
would cover their asset value?
Maybe I'm not understanding that part properly..

Thanks,

Shrini


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
ugtrain...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 5:00 pm
From: UGTrain...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:00:42 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 5:00 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
that is the clearest explaination I've heard ALL year long, you should
should be appointed FED, paulson is a tool for the man

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
mdleejd...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 6:36 pm
From: mdleejd...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:36:13 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 6:36 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Excellent, clear summary.  Thanks

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
diabloru...@gmail.com  
View profile  
(1 user)  More options Sep 17 2008, 6:45 pm
From: diabloru...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:45:35 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 6:45 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Hey,

I just had a quick question, is this a stock to buy right now and keep
for couple of years. Will the company survive all this or finish?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
nathanpo...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 6:53 pm
From: nathanpo...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:53:10 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 6:53 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
This is what I want to know. I am from a town where health care and
banking rule the city. I saw Health South Corp file bankruptcy  and
their stock frozen at or around .22 $ a share. Now ,as of 2:00 PM,
they are up to 16 $ a share. Should we expect the same in this
situation? Should we be buying a thousand shares now and hope for a
return in a year?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
Amit  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 6:57 pm
From: Amit <amith...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:57:25 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 6:57 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Chris, thanks a lot.
Question though...
What will start happening to those assets as investment firms are
falling one by one...Now someone assuming those assets which is not
worth anything... Does that mean the bank which lend the mortgage will
assume the bad debt now... now they are the target like WM, WB, BAC,
C, etc...

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
newman.mar...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 7:09 pm
From: newman.mar...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 16:09:58 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 7:09 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
no - the stock will soon be cancelled. There may be some money left
for the shareholders but as they are last in line that is very unlikey.

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
Rory Siwik  
View profile  
(1 user)  More options Sep 17 2008, 8:04 pm
From: Rory Siwik <madcyb...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:04:53 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 8:04 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Mostly true but not always.

You say that 'Those people simply don't pay those loans that they got
100%
financing on' You are correct in a majority of the cases. I bought my
first house when my Grandfather passed away. I wanted to keep his
house in the family and bought with no down. With a 762 median fico, I
was able to secure financing from a great company (Taylor Bean and
Whitaker). To this day I have not had 1 late,  1 payment plan, nothing
other than a punctual payment each and every month....  Understanding
where you are coming from, I simply wanted to say that out of the 100%
financed masses that defaulted, there is an odd duck that honors the
obligation..


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
zzb...@canada.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 8:47 pm
From: ZZB...@canada.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:47:38 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 8:47 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
If every other 100% financed borrower had made all their payments we
most probably would not be in the financial crisis which continues to
unfold. The media hyped home ownership as equity which would keep on
growing. Self appointed financial gurus,  ,financial  institutions, TV
shows, and hucksters of all kinds promoted home ownership as the best
investment people could make. 10% down, then 5% down, then no money
down were both promoted  and made available. Many who previously could
not were now able to buy their own home. But mortgages are loans,
usually huge ones,  that carry interest payment and as well the
principle that would have to be paid back.  And homes are not just a
place to live in or collect rent from, they are commodities and are
subject to many risks including supply and demand.. And many people
bought into the hype without understanding the risks they
wereundertaking.

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
tranm...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 8:47 pm
From: Tranm...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:47:48 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 8:47 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
That was better than any wikipedia expanation

    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
narul...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 9:22 pm
From: narul...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 18:22:24 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 9:22 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
I don't think that explanation was 100% accurate.  Also, all the
investment banks were levered at 30:1. Look at Morgan Stanley's last
10Q.  $1 trillion of assets to $35 billion of book equity.

Lehman actually had enough liquidity but confidence in the Company
started to deteriorate and share price was driven down.  This
decreased the Company's ability to raise ongoing funding as mortgage
assets decreased in value.

For instance, if the bank had $30 of assets and $1 of equity.  If the
assets decreased in value to $29.5, you have to take a hit in your
equity to offset the loss.  So now you have $29.5 of assets and $0.5
of equity and thus your leverage shot up to 59:1.  They were able to
raise equity as the share price dropping so the rating agencies put
them on negative watch which in turn made their counterparties and
clients lose confidence in the Company.  It's vicious cycle.  That's
why the fed brokered BofA's purchase of Merrill...MER's share price
was dropping and the cycle was starting but with BofA's backing, that
stablized the Company.  It's the same fear that is driving Morgan
Stanley to consider merging with another bank.  Just 10 days ago, John
Mack, CEO of MS, said he will remain independent.  Today he said he
was talking to Wachovia about a merger.


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
richard.redmo...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 7:56 pm
From: richard.redmo...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 16:56:24 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 7:56 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
actually, lehamn just re-packaged these loans -- these Mortgage Backed
Securities (MBS's).  FNM and FRE, who -- of course -- we all know,
were responsible for making sure these mortgage payments were made;
and so, the holders of this debt were paid.  The issue is Lehman's
business -- along with the other i-banks' -- of re-packaging these
loans went dry after the real estate bubble "burst."  One of their
services no longer existed, and so their stock price dropped.  The
issue -- as is well explained by Paul McCully in the "Paradox of De-
levaeraging" -- is all of these firms were forced to raise capital and
assess the current market value of their portfolios/assets.
Unfortunately, their holdings were -- due to market forces (supply and
demand) -- extremely depressed, and so, they were said to take
losses.  Marking down capital value equals a loss; although, these
assets will reach par value upon expiration....And so, people sold
assets on their portfolio to "raise capital" despite the fact that
these assets were priced at a remarkable and unattractive discount.
And as more people deleveraged (sold assets), more supply existed, and
prices dropped further.  Unfortunately for the i-banks, they were made
to do this through market fear, and prices dropped further, and more
losses were taken, and the rest is history.

It is unfortunate the way things work out...


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
Kaizen Denki  
View profile  
 More options Sep 17 2008, 8:04 pm
From: Kaizen Denki <eglinton.chap...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:04:10 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 17 2008 8:04 pm
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
I'm not sure the stock gets canceled automatically just because they
are in bankruptcy. I own shares in another company that has been in
Chapter 11 for a number of months.

What happened in that case was that the company was delisted and if
you wanted to buy any of their stock you had to (and still have to)
buy it over the counter (aka pink sheets) until such time as they
qualify to get listed again. In their case at one time that meant they
had to get their stock back up over $1.00 for a number of days in a
given period of time or something like that.

They were delisted because the stock had been under $1.00 for quite
some time and several warnings/extensions later they were finally
taken off. That was the NASDAQ in that case, but I assume other major
markets are similar.

I had not heard any rumors of delisting or cancellation of shares and
although the whole situation is very dramatic their stock has only
been in penny stock territory for a few days now.


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.
amrofo...@gmail.com  
View profile  
 More options Sep 22 2008, 1:47 am
From: amrofo...@gmail.com
Date: Sun, 21 Sep 2008 22:47:31 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 22 2008 1:47 am
Subject: Re: How, exactly, does this happen?
Hey Guys,

If the markets are supposed to be a "ZERO SUM" game or close to it,
who made all the billions that the tax payers and the banks lost?


    Forward  
You must Sign in before you can post messages.
To post a message you must first join this group.
Please update your nickname on the subscription settings page before posting.
You do not have the permission required to post.

End of messages  

« Newer discussion  -  value for LEH shareholders   What happens tomorrow?  -  Older discussion »




Google Home - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy

©2010 Google