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Message from discussion Any opinions out there?
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waltj...@hotmail.com  
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 More options Dec 26 2007, 10:47 pm
From: waltj...@hotmail.com
Date: Wed, 26 Dec 2007 19:47:27 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Dec 26 2007 10:47 pm
Subject: Re: Any opinions out there?
i looked up the some of the current managements names on the internet
- they are not neophytes.  their are some pedigrees here.  they have
track records and potential.  the tax concerns were something that i
didn't really investigate.  it is my experience that the gov't is
willing to cut deals when it comes to getting thier money.  if it is
one thing the gov't has it is time.  they ain't going anywhere.
cutting cost does not bother me either.  that's easy - all it requires
is a ruthless management team.  investing in the company as a
speculative value play is attractive, but i would not want to work
there.  but yeah the revenue thing bothers me.  i beleive in joseph
schumpeter's notion of creative destruction, the process of
transformation that accompanies radical innovation. and i beleive that
print as we know it is going to have to go under radical changes if it
is going to survive.  a good artice on this is Mr. Martin's Misguided
Missile By Ken Doctor, Seeking Alpha
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={2b5ec33d-b324-46ee-8412-4315f55bb787}

the thing about advertizing on the internet is that it is not as easy
to quantify (charge).  so shifting to the net is like not about
improving the business, it is about survival.  there is going to be
some shrinkage.  i think that some creative minds are going to have to
refocus on the 'business' of communication and not get stuck on the
medium of communication - namely pulp paper print.

but that is not my concern.  SVN is attractive to me because  when the
street hypes something up - they usually over do it, and it is
sometimes the same when they disparage something.  SVN is undervalued
and ignored, the street over did it.  i think that newsprint is headed
for declining returns in the next ten years - and that SVN is getting
an early start in what will prove to be a challenging business
sector.  but i am not it in for the long long haul. ,i don't see SVN
as having a durable competive advantage over its competitors - i just
see it as undervalued.  i am in for  maybe this business cycle, but
that is it.  i doubled my money in the last month.  i didn't expect to
see that so soon.  i was prepared to wait two years.  if this goes up
to 5 or 7 dollars a share, i'll be more than happy.  and i can see it
going there.

Deuce wrote:
> first time writer ever..this is my two cents on this stock.
> if you compare there contingent tax liabilities over last year...they
> have reduced that by close to 450MM. So that is an improvement and
> hopefully if they can resolve the issues with outstanding tax
> liability with US tax department, it should give their balance sheet a
> lot of respectability...currently it is bad but again better than last
> year.
> What concerns me the most is their inability to cut costs..they are
> significantly behind the curve in terms of cutting costs. Even when
> their revenues are falling, management seem to be slow in acting to
> trim down these expenses...though granted it is easier said than done.
> But I would watch out for cost column.
> Last, revenues...need to see some spark here. With increasing use of
> internet, I wonder where the advertizing revenues would stabalize for
> newspapers. Any comments are welcome on this.


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