BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Google Group

Re: Disconnected from Oil Price?

marcelwe...@gmail.com — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 13:57:48 UT

Why would there be so little interest, and net selling yesterday of
BPT (which depends on oil supplies in Alaska) when oil futures are
likely spiking even higher (maybe very high) due to hurricane worries
(in the Gulf Coast)??
My instinct is to buy now because the baby is being thrown out with
the bath water... because I think BPT actually benefits from this bad

The Alaskan Money Rush!

fiftybillionc...@gmail.com — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 17:36:07 UT

Alaska's Governor Sarah Palin has been selected as John McCains VP
which could usher in a new era for big business in the north. Alaska
has already been a hot topic of discussion this years as Americans
look to tap into the natural resources and realize the states
potential. Investors looking for unique growth areas within America

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:43:54 UT

The Mexican government derives more than a third of its revenues from
oil production. If Mexico continues to experience these decline rates,
it will put increasing pressure on Mexicans to move north to the
United States to generate income.

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 20:51:55 UT

More good news from Mexico:

[link]

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 06:36:03 UT

People think of BPT simply as a security that provides income but in
fact it compares favorably to stocks like DVN and COP for capital
appreciation. (If you draw a comparison graph, remember to add the 10%
distribution for each one year period to BPT's overall return). These
comparison graphs show that BPT's shares can languish for a prolonged

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 05:36:11 UT

Back in June 2006, Mr. T. Boone Pickens predicted $100/barrel oil and
said oil was reaching a peak in supply.

[link]

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:23:08 UT

The average oil price last quarter was about $120/barrel. For July,
the average oil price was $132/barrel. If the average oil price for
August and September is about $115/barrel, BPT should be able make
last quarter's distribution of $3.05/unit for the 3rd quarter.

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

steve.isak...@gmail.com — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 22:09:15 UT

Good points, and love the comparative graph. I think there are several
facts that we can file under irrationality:

-This stock is not followed by many analysts, so there is little or no
guidance available to investors. There is also hardly any news - the
trust doesn't even have a web site - further reducing the information

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

jorrthebarbar...@gmail.com — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 06:50:28 UT

So far the argument seems to be one of two things:
1. Irrationality has kept the dividend high relative to the price.
I.E. an it is too good to be true mentality could scare off
investors. This seems unlikely, as BPT has had a pretty long history
of the 2-3% quarterly return and one would think that eventually a

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:48:13 UT

Here's an interesting quote from a Bloomberg article on liquid natural
gas (LNG) supplies for Asia:

"Japan and South Korea will pay whatever it takes to get the fuel,''
Cambridge Energy's Harris said. ``They do not have access to pipeline
gas and the alternative is oil-based fuel."

See [link]

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

steve.isak...@gmail.com — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:10:11 UT

Bond investors like to talk about a "risk premium" that gets rolled
into the price of an investment because of associated risk of default.

BPT has a couple of big risks that have to go into the price - revenue
depends on world oil price (WTI), and actual production from Prudhoe
Bay fields. Everyone is aware of fluctuating oil prices. Multiply that

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:13:25 UT

BPT's yield is backward looking -- in other words, it reflects the
dividend paid for the previous quarter. When the price of oil
decreases from the previous quarter's oil price, some people sell BPT
in the expectation that the price of oil will go down further, thereby
lowering BPT's future dividend. This is why BPT's yield shown on

Re: BPT Pricing Factors

rad...@aqsafety.com — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:06:57 UT

Hello: The really high yield of this royalty trust has me concerned
too. I know that Morningstar doesn't rate it, and I can't find any
information about the amount of insider trading.
Rick
Drew wrote:

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

nas...@gmail.com — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:37:24 UT

so are you guys holding BPT or what?

Re: can this stock end in tears in the next 2-3 years?

john2...@mintemail.uni.cc — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 19:40:47 UT

Just prior to the Irish Potato Famine, the population of Ireland was 8
million people. After the famine, the population fell significantly
and has not fully recovered to this day. The following graph of
Ireland's population includes the population of Nothern Ireland after
its establishment.

See [link]