I don’t know how many people listen to the webcasting of Thomas Weisel
Partners Healthcare Conference; no matter you did it or not, let’s go
over some important details of this conference. I am sure that even
those people who have no ideas of drug industry will admit that it is
so unbelievable after making a comparison of LGND’s real value and
current stock price:

1, LGND has 10 pharmaceutical deals, with over 21 development
programs. The programs not only have a chance to generate substantial
milestones, over $600 million in milestones, but also future
royalties. For royalties incomes, please refer to AVINZA which was
sold to King and brings ten of millions dollars royalty to LGND every
year.

2, the 11 million dollars stock for stock merger agreement with NRGN
will bring LGND about 7 million dollars hard cash plus access to
NRGN’s pipeline. Please remember this: Just the Merck full sponsored
pain drug VR1 will bring LGND 10 million dollars milestone payment
once Merk start Phase 3 clinical trial. VR1 is now at Phase 2.

NRGN also has programs for Parkinson's Disease and Insomnia.

After listening to the webcasting, I told my friends: “this deal is as
beautiful as the deal which Lakers got Pau Gasol from Grizzlies.”

3, I already introduced LGND’s pipeline in my last article, and there
is a more detailed programs outline from this conference. If you are
interested in it, you can find it in my blog at Motley Fool (my screen
name is AndrewGreenBull).

There is one thing I have to emphasize: LGND sold AVINZA and four
other drugs to King and another Japanese company for 500+million
dollars in 2006, and there was $2.5 dividend payout in 2007 after the
deals were finished. Now I want to ask you readers a question, if LGND
sold 21 drugs or the whole company( I believe quite a few drug makers
are interested in it), will it cost only $2.5/Share?

The answer is quite obvious: absolutely not! Simply think about this:
after the merger agreement with NRGN finished by the end of this year,
LGND will have total 50 million dollars cash in hand, and the current
stock price is not even 1/5 of its real value.

4, there were two more big surprises from the conference:

One is that collaboration with BMS in the area of B38 MAP kinase
inhibitors. The collaboration started about 12 years ago. It has
generated various leads. Right now, BMS is running three Phase II
studies in rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and arthrosclerosis. The
larger of the three, the rheumatoid arthritis trial, completed accrual
in July this year, and the data are expected next month.

I can smell that the milestone payment is nearby.

Another one is PROMACTA again; a lead drug partnership with GSK, phase
3 data is expected to be released at ASH in New Orleans in December.
LGND has a potential for earning over $10 million in milestone
payments from existing collaborations.

P.S. don’t forget Wyeth’s and Pfizer’s 3 NDA submissions.

When tons good news coming on the way, and the current stock price is
below 50 days average and 200 days average, my intuition tell me that
LGND is oversold.

Current Price $2.37　　　　My 3 Month Target：$5　　　My One Year Target：$10

References: Please go to my blog at Motley Fool and search my screen
name AndrewGreenBull, and you will find them there.

* Statement: The author of this article is not a licensed analyst and
the purpose of this article is for information sharing and discussion
only, not recommendation for any stock buying, selling and shorting
activities. Please do your own research before making any trading
decision.