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  Understanding market behavior
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timturks  
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 More options Dec 31 2007, 10:41 pm
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:41:17 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 31 2007 10:41 pm
Subject: Understanding market behavior
Maybe somone has the explanation as to how some of this works.  ATS
for the months of November and December traveled downward in share
price. There was no news during these months posted by the company
Lately ATS has started to climb - again there has been no recent news
posted by the company

I am a new investor so I am trying to figure out how this works.  I
use candlesticks style charts to determine the buying and selling
interest on a stock.  What I see are a few things taking place.
During a buy run the share price will climb if the close price is
higher than the open price during the run.  What causes this? Does
this mean more people were buying then selling during the run?  I
think I know what happens when the reverse occurs.  There are people
holding onto the stock that have a limit order in place so during a
buy run when the share price reaches this level a sell order is
executed.  If the sell demand is greater than the buy demand the share
price will close lower than the open during the run.  Is this correct?

I have also noticed that if the share price closes higher during a run
and there is no further buy activity for a while after the run the
share price will automatically start to drop as a result.  Is this
also correct?
Towards the end of todays activity(12/31/07) there was a large volume
of sell that took place which I believe is why the bar on the lower
volume+ graph is in red instead of blue but the top candle stick chart
is showing a small hollow rectangle with a high upward tail attached
to it - what does this mean?

  So in other words it is a  daily supply and demand situation taking
place that causes the share price to move one way or the other? If
this is what is happening than I have to ask with ATS not having
released any news since October of 2007 what is driving this daily
supply and demand of the stock.  I realize the avg trading volume is
normally low for ATS  yet these past few trading days it has been more
than twice the average - what is taking place here?


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 1:06 am
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 22:06:02 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 1:06 am
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
Volume is very low with ATS so supply/demand doesn't apply well.  With
volume this low it is important to place a price limit on your trades
or you could get surprised.  Traders have limited buys at very low
prices and limited sells at very high ones.  Late today (12/31) I put
in a sell at $2.10 and had to wait a while before someone took me up
on it.  A few minutes later it traded at $2.40.  Someone paid too
much, since the last trade of the day was a more reasonable $2.15.
Using the Google graph for 1 day it is instructive to see prices that
match the volume through the day.  You then realize that the
candlestick charts give a misleading picture when stray trades occur.
Another thing to consider with ATS is that it is traded in HK when the
US market is closed.  Price changes in HK or US drive prices at the
other place.  To see the price differences look at
http://chinabizfocus.com/modules/InvestChina/stockideas.php?sel=tradi...
As you say, little is know about this company on this side.  Perhaps
the Chinese know more.  And they can signal that through their trading.

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timturks  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 4:39 am
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 01:39:43 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 4:39 am
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
Thanks for the link it is helpfull.
As I mentioned I am a new investor so I am not sure what you meant by
this "Using the Google graph for 1 day it is instructive to see prices
that
match the volume through the day.  You then realize that the
candlestick charts give a misleading picture when stray trades occur"
Can you elaborate on this in layman's terms please.  Like I said the
last trade for today was a large sell  see -
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&i...
- yet the share price did not drop as a result - how is this
explained?

I agree that ATS volume is normally low but as I said these last few
days it has been higher than twice the normal -  it seems as if
something is taking place but I can not find any new news.

Was I somewhat correct in my analysis of how a stock price moves?
If it is not a result of supply and demand with ATS than what does
drive the daily price up or down?  I was under the impression the
supply and demand theory applies to all stocks regardless of trading
volume


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 3:05 pm
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 12:05:20 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 3:05 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
First for charts.  You are looking at a stock that trades so lightly
with 1 hour bars and that gives the wrong picture.
Take a look at a 1 day chart with 1 minute for ATS
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=ats;range=1d;indicator=...
You will see that trades do not happen at all times.

The rush at the end of the day (Dec 31, 2007 - if the link is followed
after today my comments will not apply) could be due to someone trying
to push up the closing price since that is the one reported in HK.
People not following closely will think that ATS is breaking out and
will push the price higher, which will push the price higher in US
until it slows down then boom - selling starts pushing the price
down.  Something like Pump and Dump.

Another reason is that someone places limit bids at rare prices like
$0.01 to buy and $5.00 to sell.  If someone comes along with a buy or
sell order without limit and there are no other BIDs and ASKs then
that person gets a bad deal.  If you have access to Level II quotes
you can see a number of  BIDs and ASKs with price limits.  For most
stocks the range of prices is close to the last bid but for ATS there
are often very few.  To get Level II quotes you have to pay more or be
a more active trader.

Think of selling a house in a hot or cool market.  Also realize that
the last sale does mean that all stock is worth that much.

I have learned from these Blogs, that is why I'm giving back a little.


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 3:20 pm
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 12:20:12 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 3:20 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
Example   Here is the Level II quotes at noon PST Jan 1

  Level ll Quote for APT SATELLITE HOLDINGS LTD (ATS: New York)
                         Bid
Ask
Price     Total Size    # of Orders     Price    Total Size   # of
Orders

$2.24          0                 1             $2.50
0          1
$0.01          0                 8             $199,000.00
0          1
                                                    $199,999.99
0          7

(total size 0 is rounded.  It is a small number)

So if you wanted to buy and didn't set a limit you could get it at
$2.50.  Most accounts would not let you purchase at the other prices.
On the other hand if you wanted to sell you could get $2.24 {and that
is a good deal} but once that is gone you would get $0.01 for your
shares.
Moral of the story.  Put a limit price on any trade of a lightly
traded stock, in fact on all stocks.


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patri...@umilp.com  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 4:24 pm
From: patri...@umilp.com
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 13:24:59 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
low volume stocks can be manipulated much easier by insiders of
someone with a big stake. personally I have found it better to stay
away from very low volume stocks, you may even have a hard time
getting out when you want to for your price if there are no takers.

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timturks  
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 More options Jan 1 2008, 8:17 pm
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2008 17:17:07 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Jan 1 2008 8:17 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
I was unaware that it works this way.  I have seen level ll breakdown
before at http://www.otcbb.com/asp/Info_Center.asp  but I did not
understand what it meant. I guess I have had luck on my side as I do
place limits on my orders as a safety.

One of the criteria for my new investments is the stock needs to have
good volume;  I have chosen the following for 2008 investments. Can
you please give me your opinion on these?

HIMX, SIMG, ACTS, AWG, GBT


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 2 2008, 6:40 pm
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2008 15:40:43 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Jan 2 2008 6:40 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
I've never heard of them.

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timturks  
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 More options Jan 3 2008, 7:48 pm
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2008 16:48:09 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Jan 3 2008 7:48 pm
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
I never heard of them either until I did a search for possible
investments for 2008 using the criteria I mentioned earlier.

All of these companies have been performing well financially for 2006
and 2007, good eps, good volume etc...
They appear to be undervalued and the market is starting to make the
corrections now.

I am not sure if this is a good indicator or not but HIMX, ACTS AND
XWG( I put down the wrong symbol- AWG - for this last one originally)
have all been up even with the market doing poorly these last few days
since many people must not be very perceptive.

 Info is coming out now on last quarter results for a lot of companies
including other indicators tied to the last 3 months of 2007.  I
thought everyone was aware that these 3 months were not good for most
but people seem to be acting surprised by the results and the market
responds negatively.  What were people expecting, good results?

 Looks like the market for January at least will be performing  poorly
again for this reason. I wonder how much longer we will be paying for
the mistakes made by the lending institutions?

One last note - you are aware the letters I listed are the companies
stock symbols and not the names of the companies themselves right?


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 4 2008, 2:30 am
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2008 23:30:11 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Jan 4 2008 2:30 am
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
As I said I sold ATS at $2.10 taking a small profit and watched it
continue up.  I have learned to not wait until the peak since by the
time you know it peaks it has already come down.

Things worked out very well since I took the proceeds and bought HOKU
which is up about 15% today.  I found it while looking at the stocks
you mentioned and HOKU was listed as a competitor to one of your
list.  Another competitor that looked interesting is ENEI.

The January market is doing well in the emerging markets and resource
rich countries.  Financial data in US may mean a further drop in value
of $US.  Increasing oil and gold prices are not due to increased
demand in the products this week but reflect hedging against dollar
devaluation.


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timturks  
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 More options Jan 4 2008, 3:37 am
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 00:37:12 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Jan 4 2008 3:37 am
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
I am curious as to why you would invest in HOKU with numbers like
these?

 EPS:  -0.30

                                                          Key Stats &
Ratios

                                                           Sep
'07           (2007) Annual             (TTM)

Net Profit Margin                                -420.08%
-51.27%                 -139.21%
Operating Margin                                -529.29%
-75.75%                 -168.08%
EBITD Margin
-
-71.63%                 -163.59%
Return on Average Assets                    -10.35%
-8.78%                   -14.00%
Return on Average Equity                     -16.03%
-10.41%                   -18.87%

ENEI that you mention is also displaying poor numbers

Total Equity   -27.04

EPS:  -0.07

                                                                 Key
Stats & Ratios

Sept07                    2006                     TTM

Net Profit Margin
-5276.44%          -39696.00%               -6518.48%
Operating Margin
-2828.27%          -26410.00%              -4257.02%
EBITD
Margin
-             -26019.00%              -4160.58%
Return on Average Assets
-443.86%              -450.66%                -344.63%
Return on Average
Equity

   What criteria are you using to pick stocks?


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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 5 2008, 2:48 am
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 23:48:46 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sat, Jan 5 2008 2:48 am
Subject: Re: Understanding market behavior
Look for bargains.  Buy Lowish sell Highish.  Very hard to pick the
top or bottom.

Didn't mean to keep HOKU for long, sold it already.  May buy some ATS
again, if it falls a little further.

Repeat often - get rich.


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End of messages  

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