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  More valleys than hills on this roller coaster
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timturks  
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 More options Jan 4 2008, 11:21 pm
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 20:21:09 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Jan 4 2008 11:21 pm
Subject: More valleys than hills on this roller coaster
I have been told that investing in the stock market is like riding a
roller coaster except your emotions respond the opposite.  In other
words as your going up the incline you have a feeling of exuberance
but when you get to the top and start traveling downward instead of
elation you experience disappointment and anticipation of the next
incline. All I know is my roller coaster ride that started at the end
of October of 2007 has had many more valleys than peaks.
Early November of 2007 is when the results of faulty lending practices
made by financial institutions hit the market. As a result the level
the stocks I purchased in early November declined and just when it
looked like things were going to start to turn around in late December
when financial institutions were getting their houses in order along
comes January of 2008 and wham - more bad news - the unemployment rate
is at an all time high further indicating our economy is in a
recession - the result - whatever gains my stocks started to make in
late December have been wiped out and then some.
I would like to get off of this roller coaster until the layout of the
ride is redesigned but my seat belt won't release until I reach the
peak I started at in late October of 2007 and it is beginning to look
like that hill is a long way off

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richard.hall...@gmail.com  
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 More options Jan 5 2008, 3:04 am
From: Richard.Hall...@gmail.com
Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 00:04:39 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sat, Jan 5 2008 3:04 am
Subject: Re: More valleys than hills on this roller coaster
A roller coaster goes up and down, the stock market is different.
Some stocks never return to previous levels.  Some companies sell off
part of their assets to continue.  From then on they are clearly not
worth as much.  Such is the case with so many financials - they made
bad investments and the financial data that the high stock prices were
based on were incorrect.  Consider ENRON.  More like a slide than a
roller coaster.

A stock is worth today what it is worth today.  It has no obligation
to go back to where you bought it.  Review your holdings regularly.
Ask yourself, ignoring the purchase price, whether you would buy it at
the current price, considering all the other investments you could
make.  If not then sell whenever the price seems relatively high and
buy something else when the price seems relatively low.  In this
market buy and hold is not the best strategy.


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timturks  
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 More options Jan 5 2008, 6:15 am
From: timturks <timtu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2008 03:15:37 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sat, Jan 5 2008 6:15 am
Subject: Re: More valleys than hills on this roller coaster
OK - first of all I thought I was the only one posting messages
between 1:00 AM and 5:00 AM - secondly what you are saying about not
holding on until it is too late is probably true. It is just so hard
to let go when for a short while it looked like things were starting
to turn around.  How will I ever know if this will be the case when
the market has been getting nothing but bad news since November with
very brief glimpses of good news in between.  I am new to the market
but I am pretty sure it is not always like this.  If we are indeed
heading for, or are already in a recession, what stocks should I
invest in?

  I have looked into this and find a variety of opinions on this
subject.  Some say tech stocks will continue to do good for a while,
others say get out now and invest in defense or health care stocks
while still more are saying to get out completely and invest in high
yield municiple bonds.

All the stocks I invested in at the end of October were already at low
levels which is what attracted me to them in the first place because I
felt the companies all have potential and I was getting a good deal
purchasing at low prices. The only problem is November came along and
they dropped even lower so my GUPR stock that was selling for $1.05/sh
when I bought 25,000 shares worth is now going for .43/sh which would
be a $15,000 or approx a 60% loss for me if I were to sell now.  The
company itself is doing just fine in their industry - paper
manufacturing in China .  In todays market though it is difficult for
a low volume OTC stock to make any headway -upwards that is because it
doesn't seem to have any problem traveling the other way.

  Some of the scenario you describe in your posting is true - some
companies never get back to the level they were at especially if you
bought them when they peaked back in 2000 and yes ENRON took a major
slide but both are the extremes.  Most companies since 2000 have
reached the same peak multiple times over the years - even then this
still does not apply to my situation as I would hardly call 1.05/sh a
unobtainable peak for GUPR as well as$2.40 unobtainable for ATS or .55/
sh unobtainable for FSN - these are the prices I paid when I purchased
these stocks although while writing this I have taken time out to
look at their history and 2.40/sh and 1.05/sh were peak levels for ATS
and GUPR - damn - I can't believe the lack of scrutiny I used when
making my first purchases - what the hell was I thinking?

  So if I am understanding you correctly I should not continue to wait
for any of these to get back to the levels I paid for them because
they may never.

  I just can't bring myself to take that type of loss especially with
GUPR - I know this company is doing well and they are in the Asian
market as well as ATS and FSN so maybe, hopefully, I did at least that
much right - that was yet another recomendation to defend yourself
against a recession here

 Im sorry it's late, (5:00AM).  I'm tired,, (I haven't gone to sleep
yet) and this is depressing me


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