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  Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
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Nerd  
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 More options Nov 17 2009, 7:46 am
From: Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:46:21 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 17 2009 7:46 am
Subject: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
Calling All Capstonian Jedis To Emerge From Sanctuaries For CPST Q3
Lightsaber Round

1.
Is CPST finally going to implement cast parts and do away with
expensive machined parts in Q3 to surprise the Q3 EPS / COGS?

2.
Bullish technicals may put CPST on target for FY2010Q3 (Q1 2010)
extended mountain pattern; e.g. pre-2007 technical pattern
correlation. Do you see any similarities?

3.
Is book value now irrelevant as backlog seems to be the ultimate
driving force?

Your wise thoughts...

=Master Obi Won (Nerd)


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shepherd888  
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 More options Nov 17 2009, 3:12 pm
From: shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:12:59 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 17 2009 3:12 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope

On Nov 17, 4:46 am, Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Calling All Capstonian Jedis To Emerge From Sanctuaries For CPST Q3
> Lightsaber Round

> 1.
> Is CPST finally going to implement cast parts and do away with
> expensive machined parts in Q3 to surprise the Q3 EPS / COGS?

Did you hear anything about this on the Q2 call?  If not, then don't
expect anything.

> 2.
> Bullish technicals may put CPST on target for FY2010Q3 (Q1 2010)
> extended mountain pattern; e.g. pre-2007 technical pattern
> correlation. Do you see any similarities?

I think technical patterns are meaningless when looked at in this long
a time range (multi years).  When you're talking many years, the only
thing that matters is fundamentals.

> 3.
> Is book value now irrelevant as backlog seems to be the ultimate
> driving force?

What evidence is there that backlog is driving the stock price?  Book
value is obviously not driving it either, or CPST would be trading a
lot lower than it is right now.  The only explanation I can see for
CPST share price is the random speculative movements of a penny stock.

> Your wise thoughts...

My personal opinion is: you can find much better returns elsewhere in
the alternative energy sector than this company.  Here are some better
options:

Solar: Trina Solar, Suntech, First Solar, Sunpower
Wind: A-Power Energy, Vestas Wind Systems
many, many others which are actually profitable

Why would anyone continue to put faith in this company when all they
get in return is continual stock dilutions and large quarterly
losses?  If you believe in this company, owning common stock is not
the way to show it, sad as it is.  I learned this lesson the hard way,
as have many of you.

my humble 2cents,


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Crystal Coast News  
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 More options Nov 17 2009, 4:53 pm
From: Crystal Coast News <jason.tup...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:53:52 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 17 2009 4:53 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
I Believe in CPST and i htink they are very near turning the corner.
In fact I've been in love with this company since the summer of '08
and bought in near $4/share. I then felt robbed as I watched my
investment sink and sink, and then sink some more. Luckily i kept the
faith. I accumulated 4 times my original position at around $.43/
share. So i am now in the green, and feel that things can and will
only get better from here.

Cheers,
Jason

On Nov 17, 3:12 pm, shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com> wrote:


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YAZ  
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 More options Nov 18 2009, 1:53 pm
From: YAZ <evswo...@yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:53:11 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 18 2009 1:53 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
"continue to have faith" is the operative for me. I was lucky to get
in @ .6 - .7 range, but pps has been languishing for a while. With the
last Q, upside seems less probable in light of all of =Nerds points. I
can't see any kind of news that will change the status quo, especially
when more production can almost translate to less profit. Nice little
niche they have here, to bad they can't seem to make it work. my stop
is @ 1.12 and I'll also pull the trigger somewhere above 1.2. Hope
that changes, I'll miss =nerds' whimsy...

On Nov 17, 3:12 pm, shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com> wrote:


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beersbudget  
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 More options Nov 18 2009, 3:58 pm
From: beersbudget <beersbud...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:58:21 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 18 2009 3:58 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
Nice little upswing at the end of the day. Anyone know why?
News tomorrow maybe??

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Nerd  
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 More options Nov 19 2009, 2:51 am
From: Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:51:36 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Nov 19 2009 2:51 am
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
Thanks for all your comments!

The operative title word is hope. So if this is just the beginning
then so be it. Turbines will be a part of alternative co-energy for
much more time to come.

=Nerd


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shepherd888  
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 More options Nov 19 2009, 9:55 am
From: shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:55:23 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Nov 19 2009 9:55 am
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
I do hope Capstone can succeed, but realistically I think the only
possibility would be a licensing deal in the auto sector.  i.e. if
that Ford car is actually built in production scale, BY FORD, with
Ford paying Capstone licensing fees /royalties to build their
turbines.  In my opinion, the only hope is licensing, since Capstone
itself cannot seem to run its business (manufacture/administer) at a
profit.

On Nov 18, 11:51 pm, Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Nerd  
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 More options Nov 20 2009, 6:42 am
From: Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:42:36 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Nov 20 2009 6:42 am
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
Another option would be that some other company BUYS capstone outright
because and run it to green EPS. Intellectual property is the true
value in CPST so it may be worth much more than book value can put on
it.

=Nerd


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shepherd888  
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 More options Nov 23 2009, 2:17 pm
From: shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:17:51 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Nov 23 2009 2:17 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
True that book value is less of an issue if the company is sold for
its IP.  However as I recall, Capstone's patents start to expire in
2014.  Not all of them expire then, but that is when their IP starts
to lose value.  Competitors would jump into the field starting then.
An acquiring company would weight that into their offer price.  An
acquirer would basically be purchasing a 4+ year jump on the
competition, and Capstone's manufacturing methods, etc.

Taking this into account, the possibility of a buyout alone doesn't
entice me to own common stock.

That said, I WILL buy back in on the day they release news of a
licensing deal in the auto sector, e.g. Ford.  I don't care if the
stock goes up 50% or more in one day.  That's when it would be worth
it to me to own the stock.

On Nov 20, 3:42 am, Nerd <nerdsoft...@gmail.com> wrote:


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TC  
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 More options Dec 21 2009, 1:03 pm
From: TC <cunningham.tho...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 21 Dec 2009 10:03:28 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 21 2009 1:03 pm
Subject: Re: Capstone Episode IV: A New Hope
Remember cost of castings involves a great initial capital investment.

Also, the only patented technology is their "air bearings".... There
are other companies out there that make microturbines, big companies
like IR have a division.... It's a gamble for them so they don't
invest much in it.

This company will be dead if it doesn't make a profit next year.

On Nov 23, 2:17 pm, shepherd888 <shepherd0...@yahoo.com> wrote:


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