I have been looking at this stock for a while. What to do with this
stock. Pls give me your views because am confused with this stock.
Do we BUY SELL or HOLD this stock. Pls give ur views....

BUY it NOW.  The deal is getting done at 15.10 per share.
Overreaction yesterday and people freaked out.   Buy this stock right
now even up 1.10 today.  There will be a short squeeze on top of
everything because the fed is speaking next week and people want to
cover just incase.  I do not think that there will be a rate cut but
people will protect themselfs.  This stock will be up near 9 next
week.  Deal closed at the end of the 3rd qtr.

Sorry, but you are delusional if you think Lone Star will pay 15.10/
sh. They are cooked...if anything, the deal gets renegotiated @ ~7.5.
The enterprise value is no where near 400M.  If you are long better
hedge your bets with SRS.  LEND will be LENT by October.

Ryan,

Listen, you are going to get burned. Im not trying to get into a
pissing match w/ you but you are going to get hurt.  This stock
finishes up over 3.00 today. Watch. I hope you dont have a ton of
shares short.  I lost money on this too when I was short and just had
to cover to protect my gains.

Long now.

Lone Star has to do the deal.  Its the wording in the documents.  Lone
Star f'd up and now THEY are on the hook.

I hope this doesnt wreck your weekend.

I shorted 2000 @11. Covered 75% yesterday @4.8. This stock will never
see 15 again.

Glad to hear that.  It sounded like you were short and not in a
profitable position.  Id be watching it carefully or have a stop on it.

"Lone Star has to do the deal.  Its the wording in the documents.
Lone Star f'd up and now THEY are on the hook".

- Ok now, let's get down to fact's and stop emotional squeaking. Where
have you seen the wording of the offer documents? The 10K revealed
that the offer is subject to the state approvals. Lone Star has failed
to obtain the needed approvals for 2 times already. During each of
these failures Lone Star could have scrapped the deal. The extension
allowed by law is 10 days so Loan Star extended the offer for another
10 days. This is what we know so far. In addition you don't sign 400
mill contract on the deal in this market without including an
additional escape clause. Why does Loan Star do it? you don't have to
be a rocket scientist to understand:

1) They are holding LEND by the gills. As the price of LEND
deteriorates they have more negotiating power and can renegotiate the
offer price.

2) If the offer is scrapped LEND is obligated to pay Lone Star 12
mill. Yes LEND will pay Lone Star. That again tells you how desperate
LEND was when it signed the agreement.

3) The agreement is nothing more then an OPTION to buy LEND. and while
regular options have an expiry time in case of LEND Lone Star can
extend an expiration date by 10 days and LEND will agree to this
because without Loan Star, LEND is out of business.

4) In case LEND goes bankrupt before the deal closes. Lone Star can
use the agreement to lay claim to some or  all of the LEND assets.

5) Agreement gave Lone Star access to LEND's books, insider
information.

Not a bad agreement on Lone Stars part. My guess is that Lone Star
would not exercise LEND option because the option is out of the money.
The company at this point is worthless.

You dont know what you are talking about

You sound like you shorted this stock just b/c the 10K was released
and you heard that the company might go bankrupt.  Im sure you did no
research on your own. Every point you made in your thread is exactly
what every other donkey in the heard would say.  I was short this
stock for a while too, but once I got the chance to read through the
deal docs., I quickly covered and went long.

"Lone Star failed to get the approval needed 2xs"  WRONG
They only had 33% of the shares needed.  Im sure you dont know the
reason either...do you?

1. Your first point is wrong.  LEND actually has them by the gills. Im
sure you wouldnt agree.

2.Your second point is wrong.  If LEND decided not to do the deal,
then they would have to pay the 12 mil break up fee.  Desperate or
really smart?

3.It is not an option.  You would know this if you read through the
deal.  So far from the truth and it shows that you have no clue what
you are talking about.  And, once again, why you are wrong.

4. Wrong.

5. Wrong

There is no option to exercise or not exercise the deal.  Lone Star is
on the hook . The company is not worthless and they have the cash on
hand from when they sold the 2bil in mortgages.

Short the stock Monday when it opens up.  Or, short it anytime next
week.  Im sure you are on the right side of this trade.  You sound
like you are really on to something.

.

'Wrong, wrong, no clue': Those are your "arguments". You provide zero
facts only hunches based on rumors.

Ok here is a disclosure in the statement filed with the SEC noting
what can go wrong with the tender offer, read and learn:

'Actual results could differ materially from those currently
anticipated due to a number of risks and uncertainties. Risks and
uncertainties that could cause results to differ from expectations
include: uncertainties as to the timing of the tender offer and
merger; the possibility that various closing conditions for the
transaction may not be satisfied or waived; other business effects,
including the effects of industry, economic or political conditions
outside of Accredited's control; uncertainties as to how many
Accredited stockholders will tender their stock in the offer; the risk
that competing offers will be made; the effects of disruption from the
transaction making it more difficult to maintain relationships with
employees, licensees, other business partners or governmental
entities; transaction costs; actual or contingent liabilities; and
other risks and uncertainties discussed in documents filed with the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by Accredited, as well as the
tender offer documents to be filed by Parent and the Solicitation/
Recommendation Statement to be filed by Accredited'.

Here is disclosure about sharing an insider information something that
you said was also wrong:

'Access to Information; Confidentiality .    Until the effective time
of the merger or the termination of the merger agreement, the Company
and its subsidiaries have agreed to provide Parent with reasonable
access to their officers, employees, agents, properties, offices,
plants and other facilities, books and records, and all other
financial, operating and other data and information as Parent may
reasonably request, subject to applicable law and confidentiality
obligations'.

Short it.  Sounds like you have a lot if experience with M & A's.
Lets tell everyone......SHORT LEND....SHORT LEND.

This guy thinks there is no way the deal gets done for 15.10. You can
make tons of money riding this think to zero!!!!!!!!

It will be fun to see everyone panic and race to cover when they
realize this deal gets done.

GO LONG!(AT LEAST TILL THURS. OR FRIDAY)  Cramer's take on LEND!  I
trust Cramer's take on this more than any pundits' here, I am $4.55
@500 shares, getting ready to cash out at 10.00 or more this week. ps:
STOCKHURST IS SPOT ON!

http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10372260&channel=Cramer...

Jon Najarian and Karen Finerman also mentioned this on Fast Money on
CNBC, stating that the contract was iron.  Karen doesn't own it, but
Jon stated he does own quite a number of shares of LEND based on the
buy out story after having gone over the contract.

I'm confused, why would this deal go through, the mortgage business is
screwed up now. That's why American Home closed so quickly. You don't
run a company for years then close the next day. I think this is a
sell. Lend is holding out on Lone Star and Lone Star is doing the
same. Because of the 12 million break up fee. But Lend is running out
of money and time and Lone Star is well aware of that. This deal is a
liabilty. I can't see it closing.

I agree with you completely. Who cares about 12 mill break up fee
that's peanuts compared to 400 mill that Lone Star is going to loose
if they go along with this deal. The choice is between loosing 400
mill and not loosing this money, you guess how they are going to
decide. Nothing is cast in iron the mortgage industry is in turmoil;
shareholders know that and don't expect Lone Star to make the
purchase. It's an extraordinary circumstance and I have absolutely no
doubt that the agreement protects Lone Star against the market turmoil
we see right now (it's basically a shutdown of secondary mortgage
market). Even if LEND takes Lone Star to court for specific
performance the litigation can drag out for years and LEND will be
bankrupt in couple of months.

I agree with you completely. Who cares about 12 mill break up fee
that's peanuts compared to 400 mill that Lone Star is going to loose
if they go along with this deal. The choice is between loosing 400
mill and not loosing this money, you guess how they are going to
decide. Nothing is cast in iron the mortgage industry is in turmoil;
shareholders know that and don't expect Lone Star to make the
purchase. It's an extraordinary circumstance and I have absolutely no
doubt that the agreement protects Lone Star against the market turmoil
we see right now (it's basically a shutdown of secondary mortgage
market). Even if LEND takes Lone Star to court for specific
performance the litigation can drag out for years and LEND will be
bankrupt in couple of months.

Between Jim Cramer, Jon Najarian, Karen Finerman  i trust them more
than any pundits on this site. the wording in the contract makes the
contract ironclad unless lend goes bankrupt which Lonestar is on the
hook no matter what

Ever hear of pump and dump?

Do you guys really think that the stock would trade so low if the
contract was 'ironclad'

Hell, if those crooks on CNBC really knew the truth, so would the
hedges.  They would be loading up on this "free money" and it wouldn't
have fallen so much.

btw, i thought of owning this stock but it's really a gamble unless
someone has the contract and is a legal expert.

basically people long believe in this 'ironclad' contract

people short don't believe in the CNBC BS and understand the reality
of the housing and financials market.

I'm not shorting this sucker because it comes down to lawyering.
Hedges can release more fake news to drive up the price leaving you to
hold the bag when they dump it.  It's easy to make rallies as well
with short-covering so a little manipulation allows the big boys to
game everyone.

Very interesting to watch though.

i'm curious - people who are shorting this stock understand what
reality exactly?
That's really a  topic worthy of a new thread. - FINANCIALS - WHAT IS
THE REALITY?

 - imho the reality is that it's time for some federal intervention.
There's no way that the economy as a whole can adjust to continued
downgrading of securities and bonds written on mortgage paper. another
trillion dollar loss and we are skipping right past the recession that
Bernanke's afraid of and straight into the D word -

keep shorting the financials and you're betting on the collapse of the
market, i hope you're buying gold with all those profits....and ammo
too, you'll need lots of ammo

The credit crunch has dried up equity and the banks are saddled with
huge debts they can no longer sell off as CDOs... no more turning junk
to AAAs and making a ton of bogus money underwriting.  This in turn
makes any corporate debt offering more difficult and any loans much
harder to get... that's the straw that broke the camel's back.  All
this subprime lenders need to borrow money to survive since they're
losing massive amounts of money and banks don't have money to lend
because liquidity is gone from the system.

cibalo it's much more complicated than that... there's no such thing
as a free lunch and our economy is flooded with tons of dollars
printed at record rates... wall street underwrote these terrible sub-
prime loans to make an easy but selling the shitty junk bonds as
investment grade stuff by repackaging and making more money...
everyone was leveraged to their balls and borrowing money was almost
free because no one was defaulting while rates were ridiculously low
and risk was priced out of the market... do you know anything of
business cycles?

Looks like the market is going to collapse unless the government steps
in.  Just because you don't want it to happen doesn't mean that it's
not reality.  You think Wall Street can make record profits on huge
debt-fueled leverage forever and private equity could prop up the
house-of-cards indefinitely?  PE deals have been falling through for
weeks and the house is starting to crumble.  Subprime and financials
are at the forefront.

cibalo i hope you own lots of financials and subprime, nothing like
learning the hard way.

Well, anohter article stating that Lone Star is on the hook.  You
losers keep posting blogs and telling everyone that there is no way
the deal gets done.  Meanwhile, Ill stay long and keep making money.
I made just under 6K today in this thing.  What did you make???

http://www.antandsons.com/2007/08/accredited-home-lenders-lone-star.html

WTF?!? Are You just attempting to flame people or what? my post wasn't
counter to anything you were saying, but just making an observation
about the market. However,  if you insist..
First, i hate to warrant a lecture from anyone who can use the phrase
"leveraged to their balls" and still think they know what "business
cycles" means...
that's funny that you think the risk was priced out of the market...
to the tune of over $6.5 trillion dollars in growth in the Subprime
lending sectors alone from 2003-2006. Risk WAS the market - resulting
in drastically higher rates when compared to equivalent Conforming
MBS's. Higher yield spreads, negligible swap rates and higher bids on
servicing contracts kept the housing & financials market growing for
over 2 years AFTER the fed rates hit their historic low @ 1. it's not
that money was free, it was that people who had it started giving it
away like it was. They just charged a premium on the risk, and
everyone on Wall Street wanted a piece of that premium and kept on
paying more and more for that share.

Obviously it's not flawless, there will always be some donkeys who
will short a stock on margin a week after the dc bounce then
scrambling to cover and even pushing the value.... which is similar to
Mortgage companies gambling on too much risk with other people's money
and having to sell off to Hedges at a fraction of book and asset.
We need those reactive traders in the marketplace though, it's their
covers that make money for the rest of us. i like to ride my business
cycle on the right side of the road.

The new pet rock is Alt- A. born entirely of the Risk-based pricing
models of subprime, but evolved to service a higher-credit profile
market. Still the same crappy paper, still the same clown investors
and buyers. Soon to be the same collapse. Watch and see if CFC
declares a profit or a loss for Q3 after their Alt A default rates
really come into the light. BUT as soon as that news comes out watch
for a nosedive followed by another nice rally.
5k up on LEND again in 2 days, and i may just grab some more.

i don't know what this means, unless you agree with me and the Fed
should cut the key rate from 5.25 to at least 5.0. They really should
have done that in March, and maybe even again in June. The housing
defaults are totally attributable to the rising costs of funds and the
subsequent liquidity losses are a direct result of downgraded bonds
based on increasing DEFAULT rates,  not inherently bad security
packages.
Stopping the rate hikes was a start but in the last 18 months the Fed
has just sat back and watched things go from bad to ugly.
Macroeconomics 201- i think they covered business cycling...

That's what I was saying the reality is, I think some guy named Jim
Cramer thinks so also, oh and some Greenspan dude too...
oh and yes i do own lots and lots of financials and some subprime. I
also dump them all the time.  I trade stocks for profit, what do you
do?

if you're buying - HOLD until 9.5

Accredited is down another solid 12% today. I don't see any short
squeeze some of the Cramer's children were so wisely predicting. Let's
continue enjoying the process.