The Q1 2008 earnings are being released tonight...
Just for fun, what're your predictions?

I think we'll see $70 soon.

Analysts favor bearish bets. But I don't trust analysts, so I think
it'll hit at least $65

It's dropping rapidly! 62 now. Any insider bad news??

I wouldn't call it insider news...but there was an earthquake that
just killed 10,000 people...

Oh, I'll agree with $70 as well.

There's an earthquake? Goodness!

Yup, so put 2 and 2 together and guess why the stock may be dropping a
bit.

Please note, that all people who wrote here their opinion own this
stock (I am own it, too), so they (or we) could not be realistic… We
just sure that this is the great stock and hope it will jump;
otherwise we short it right now…

I just hope it won’t go down…

Here, sth else on Ctrip.com, other than Q1 Earnings release. I just
came back from China two weeks ago. I'd been Ctrip's customer once. I
was impressed by their service.

1. Send the air tickets and receipts to where you live( for free for
most areas in a city) at your convenient time. They do it up to 9PM
everyday.
2. I asked three friends which travel agent I should use. All the
three told me Ctrip.com. The three live in 3 different cities, one in
Northwest, one in South and one in East.
3. I booked a flight. Two days later I got a call from Ctrip at about
9PM and they told me the flight's departure time was just changed and
they gave me like three options, a. stay with the flight; b. cancel it
with full refund; c. cancel this one and book the other one. I chose c
and they delivered the new ticket at about 11AM the next day. I'm not
surprised that Ctrip had a quick response to the customers in the
earthquake area.

I decided then to buy Ctrip.com after I came back. So I did. I am
confident in Ctrip for a long term.

Great information qin, thanks!

wow that is some great information qinb. I thought this is similiar to
Priceline but that sounds so much better!

Any idea why its falling? Its at 61 right now.
Cant find the earnings news anywhere.

The call is at 9 PM Eastern time (US)... and i guess they'll release
the earnings around 1 hour before... You should check www.prnewswire.com
, for the latest .... This site reports the earliest... Don't worry
too much about Ctrip, it'll beat the street's estimates.... just wait
and watch this baby!

Well so much fornot worrying :), the stock is at 57 now... this sucks.

but WHY?????????

they beat by 2 cents. The street was expecting more.

"The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on May
14. Kessler predicted the company will exceed Wall Street's estimates.
But because of February snowstorms in China, he said the company's
profit will beat expectations by only 2 cents or 3 cents per share,
and investors may expect more."

Sentiment was bearish to begin with. Also beating expectations isn't
the game anymore it's topping even the higher estimates. Snowstorms a
little while back probably caused some slowdown in quarterly growth.
While it might get hit hard in s/t I think this is a l/t play, at
least until after Olympics.

what??
EPS .$20 vs $18 estimate. What are they expecting.

actually they beat by 9 cents their non-GAAP was .27 and the estimates
were .18.. no worries people

I think you are factually incorrect. The estimates are non Gapp.

SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - Ctrip.com International late
Wednesday reported first-quarter adjusted earnings rose 58% to RMB132
million ($19 million), or 27 cents per American Depositary share,
topping the 18-cent mean estimate of analysts polled by Thomson
Reuters.

Nine cents beat is not bad at all and the sell off is because the
shares had risen in expectation of these numbers already. Hard to play
earnings because you don't ever know if the earnings are already baked
into the stock price. With Sina it was the opposite probably because
they are not traded or followed as much. Any longer term holders will
be rewarded with investing in this company imo.

Thanks for the clarification.... I just hope it recovers in a week or
so.....I bought into margins :(

Now you can see why this non-gaap gaap thing needs to change.
Estimates are always getting mixed up on comparisons, I see it every
quarter on different companies. Very poor on part of the news agencies
to do this. From Briefing.com

6:07PM Ctrip.com beats by $0.02, beats on revs (CTRP) 63.33 +0.99 :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.02 better than the
First Call consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 47.1% year/year to $49
mln vs the $46.5 mln consensus. For the second quarter of 2008, Ctrip
expects to continue the year-on-year net revenue growth of
approximately 30%.

Bid: 57.25  Ask: 57.50

For the first quarter of 2008, Ctrip reported total revenues of RMB367
million (US$52 million), representing a 47% increase from the same
period in 2007 and a 4% decrease from the previous quarter.

-- could the stock be dropping because of the 4% decrease from the
previous quarter? oh come on..it beats estimates, so the stock should
go up. Hang in there people...

Google Finance is showing 64.3...
Where do you see the figure 57.25? Is Google inaccurate for afterhours?

nasdaq.com shows the trade is 57.25

it is down due to forecast failed to satisfied the expectation.
(30% year over year is not great at all)