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  GAME IPO shows investors are not that stupid
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limuzhi  
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 More options Sep 25, 1:02 pm
From: limuzhi <limu...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:02:43 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 25 2009 1:02 pm
Subject: GAME IPO shows investors are not that stupid
I am sorry but glad to see that GAME is selling below its placing
value. The placing value of $12.5 is fair comparing to PWRD (13x P/E
of 2009E) and SNDA (12.5x of 09E). I mean, GAME is basically SNDA, so
let me ask GS and UBS, why not give some taste of money to your
investor by squeezing every cent out of them?

Who cares? GS and UBS are laughing their ways to bank their $70m fees
and leaving investors burned.

The major culprit is SNDA and its crooked management who try to play
the market and they were as foolish as they were a few years ago. No
way! The Street starts to get sick of SNDA. They finally figure out
its earnings are questionable. Here are the gist:

1. SNDA claims to have the largest online game portfolio in China. As
a matter of facts, 70% of its game revenues come from 2 old games (Mir
2 and Wooool). (Side bar: Mir 2 is an old korean game, and Wooool is a
copycat allegedly stolen Mir 2's code by SNDA years ago). If we assume
the earning numbers were real, as estimated by Wallace Chang of CS,
the two games generated almost US$100 each from each paying games each
quarter. This number is way too high than other popular games in China
(which are in neighborhood of $30 per gamer per quarter).

2. GAME spins off SNDA to raise $1b cash for SNDA to develop an
entertainment platform. But online game IS the online entertainment
platform, the most profitable one. Other platforms such as SNS and
online videos are not sustainable w/o much revenues models. Therefore,
SDNA wants to burn your money. Will you let it do that?

3. SNDA's games are the oldest ones (average 6-7 years old) among
online game companies. I am not saying old game sucks, but old games
lack of cool features that new ones can offer. Like consumer
electronics, they have life cycles and without cool updates or new
products, the company can go into the drain. And in recent years, SNDA
hasn't developed any cool games ever. Its R&D (drivers of new games)
is low among competitors (sorry, forgot the numbers). Therefore, I
cast seriously doubt to SNDA and GAME's future prospects.

If you like Chinese online games (believe me, this is a cool sector),
check out NTES and PWRD, as well as 700.HK (a combo of both news, SNS,
and game co). Avoid SNDA is what I can offer my advice to you. Good
luck and happy hunting.


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arif m  
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 More options Sep 25, 1:34 pm
From: arif m <marif1...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:34:05 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 25 2009 1:34 pm
Subject: Re: GAME IPO shows investors are not that stupid
Thank you for your Advice just bought a big chunk.
Wasnt expecting to get in so cheap. Happy bashing

On Sep 25, 1:02 pm, limuzhi <limu...@gmail.com> wrote:


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S  
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 More options Oct 12, 10:10 pm
From: S <solomonza...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:10:48 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Oct 12 2009 10:10 pm
Subject: Re: GAME IPO shows investors are not that stupid
I haven't seen the amount of money GAME/SNDA has been making since the
release of AION.

But if we're talking about Blizzard-type growth within the first few
quarters, I'm hanging on.

On Sep 25, 1:34 pm, arif m <marif1...@gmail.com> wrote:


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