This post is only really directed toward the people who keep asking
that question and I can only answer from a pure technical perspective
and my personal technical point of view.  If you are not interested in
technical analysis of stocks, or my technical analysis specifically on
goog, you may want to stop reading.

First of I want to say that I don't know any more about the future of
this stock than anybody else.  This is not FACT only interpretation of
the technical data up to todays close.  Any reference to the future is
only pure speculation on my part.

Why am I spending time writing this? I remember many sleepless knights
worrying about losing money when I didn't understand why my stock just
tanked.  I could never find anybody who would give me an honest
appraisel or teach me without an agenda.  I assure you, I have no
agenda except maybe help you sleep at knight if you are worried about
goog.

So, what is happening with goog?

From the beginning:

Google made a very spectacular move from $172.53 to $475.11,
consolidated a little, hit a low at $331.55 and made the second leg of
it's move to it's $747.24 high.  As technicians, we look at fibonacci
ratios and instead of goog making a 1:1  fibonacci as most stocks do,
it made a 1:1.382 (another ratio we watch) expansion in price.  From
it's low, the exact expansion target for a 1:1.382 move would have
been $749.66.  So, we can all agree that the fibonacci #'s are pretty
accurate guess'.

Okay, that's where we came from.  Here's where we currently are.

From the $747.24 high, we had huge volume off the top.  A combination
of a lot of profit taking by wall streeters and some serious
distribution by Google insiders (roughly 1.43 million shares since the
1st of September)

While all that selling was happening on the way down, the other half
of that huge volume (38 million in 3 days) was buying all the way from
$747 down to $626 at what they hoped was the bottom.  Unfortunately it
kept going lower.  Many of those people have been praying that goog
gets back to their entry price and if it does, they will get their
money back and promise their spouses that they will NEVER do that
again.

That creates the supply all the way back up to the high.  On top of
the regretful supply, is the insiders who were still distributing huge
amounts of stock up to as late as Nov.21 adding to the acceleration
down.

Now fear is the dominant emotion.  Goog hit a brick wall today at
$693.  Why $693? $693.84 was the closing price on the really big high
volume down day. 15 million shares worth of supply thankful to break
even or sell for a smaller loss. Okay, enough about emotions.

Wall street is full of professionals who all know about fibonacci
ratios, price points and volume and they are looking at the same data
we are.

So here's the technical picture that I see.

Aside from general market panic. Goog did exactly what it should
have.  Large expansion in price in two separate legs.  Hit a high and
is currently retracing as it should.  As ALL stocks do.  Looking at
the same fibonacci ratios, a typical retracement is around a .5 to .
618 pullback of the length of the entire second leg.

Goog is currently beginning it's 2nd small leg down.  The first was
from $747 down to $616, retraced up to $693 today and began it's
descent on accelerated volume.  If we pull a 1:1 fibonacci expansion
from the high to the bottom of it's 1st leg down, it retraced almost a
perfect fib. .618 (another important fib ratio) to $693.  The next leg
down should roughly equal the first leg down which puts us at a price
point of $562.18.

Goog will find some support in the $616 area and strong support around
the $558 area as there is big volume there.  And should eventually go
back to test the $747 high.

If you are looking to buy, I would look at the $560 area, if you are
long already and in it for the long haul, I would not look at your
brokerage account for the next month or so, it will come back.  There
are many charts of very good stocks that have set up very similar to
goog.

Goog is a fundamentally strong stock acting perfectly in this volatile
market.  That's it.

What I am saying is not Voodoo, or made up and it's definitely not
fact. It's one way of looking at this crazy market and for me it has
proven to be more accurate more often than not.

Do with it what you will.

That is genuinely a good read, thank you for taking the time to
explain your position.  Although, I must admit, technicals have seem
to just gone out the window with this crazy market.

My pleasure, thank you.

Marcus. I have an open mind, and I appreciate your work. But I'm not
buying the idea that the Fibonacci model is a better predictive model
over time vs. other systems that attempt to predict market behavior,
even if solely applied to your test cases.

It might not be a Voodoo indicator, but if it were that simple
everyone would be using it, leading to a statistical wash. Otherwise
it's a coincidence until you have enough data to prove a case. One
stock with one theory over one time period does not make a useful
model that can be applied in general.

I'm not saying signals cannot be missed in the noise, just that it is
almost as bad as your local weather forecast, which employs billions
of dollars of satellite data and supercomputer time each day using the
most advanced models that your tax dollars can buy.

You are absolutely right.  I mainly look at volume levels coming into
swing points and use fibonacci as potential levels where we might see
changes in supply and demand, specifically near past high volume swing
points and compare volumes coming back into those. I didn't intend it
to sound like fibonaccis are reliable in and of themselves.  Mainly I
was aiming to calm some nerves that googs movement wasn't out of the
ordinary and fibonaccis was a good way to illustrate the point.

My system is ALL about price and volume.  No way I would have tried to
call the top in goog at 747 with fibonaccis.

I apologize for not stating that better.

Excellent read. 5/5

Yes, thank you Marcus. This is excellent stuff. I follow Elliott Wave
analysis and this is excellent confirmation info. I'm not a purely
technical analysis guy, but use every piece of info that I come across
to help me feel out the best educated guess on how the stock will
behave, considering global macro economic conditions and market
sentiment as a guide. So in your best guess, do you think now that the
stock has rallied once back up to 693 today, that from here on, it
will make a gradual decline down to the low 600s/high 500s, before
eventually coming back up to test the 740 range (with little mini
rallies along the way down)?

marcus I really have to commend you... some people have never heard of
technical analysis until they read ur posts and u still manage to
answer some questions.... haha

goog to 616...

this is nuts.  google is not going to low 6 hundreds.    it had a bump
due to cyber monday.  it was killed with the ms announcement of data
centers in siberia.  big deal. it'll pop again tomorrrow.  it's one of
the few issues that only went down 12% in this subprime mess and one
of the few issues that rebounded and is projected to go $900.  why all
the institutional movement in MAR 900 calls?  because the stock is
headed way higher after this mess.  around Jan earnings.  when you buy
long you ignore the daily over-analysis of market fluctuations.  in a
down market there's going to be short selling and covering margin
calls with sizeable equities.  goog is a sizeable equity in anyone's
portfolio.  i would buy some and enjoy the ride but don't think this
stock is going to 500 plus price levels.  Citywide will go BK first
along with a general market collapse in the finacial sector.  and
neither one is going to happen.

Well if I were short, I would have liked to see it go above the
$693.84 today, the close from the 8th and then fail on price and
volume.  It only got to $693.40.  Still there was a serious expansion
in volume on the way down today and it did close below the Nov. 8th
low (16.5 million shares) which I see as pretty bearish.  To answer
your question, I would put my money on hitting the $616 before a
retest of the $693.  as it hits that point, if the volume is higher
than the last time down,  I think it goes quickly lower. If goog holds
that area with lighter volume, my guess is it would probably get a
pretty good bounce.  Also, all bets would be off if Uncle Ben jumps
in.

What is your Elliott Wave telling us?

GOOG will be pass 747 by the end of the year.

I was asleep during the 693 this morning. Curse being on the West end
of the continent!

Very good read....based on the charts...goog will retest the 620
level...if it breaks 616 it will fall back to 580 and soon....i bought
it when it tested the 620 level...and now going to short it to 625. I
will re-buy if it bounces of the nov. low.

So *I* have a question.... I am a complete amatueur at this, but have
had some success with buying at when it was 505, selling when it was
around 700, buying at 640, and thinking of selling again now as it
hovers around 660. It costs me 12.95 through my Schwab account and I
would like to think I am ahead of the game by playing it this way. The
argument can be made (and if I had a crystal ball, I would agree) that
if I had simply let it ride at 505 I would be better off. But would
I?
Just a thought.

Very interesting and well written. Thank you for taking the time.

this is why i close the laptop or watch sports when you guys
try to guess googles bottom with tech analysis.  it's absurd.

Verizon Wireless To Open Network To Apps, Devices
Last update: 11/27/2007 10:11:53 AM

   By Roger Cheng
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Verizon Wireless said Tuesday that it would
allow any device or software to run on its wireless network as it
heeds the industry call for more openness.
It's a reversal for the No. 2 U.S. carrier, which is known to be the
most protective of its network, and an acknowledgment of the direction
of the wireless industry. Google Inc. (GOOG) is spearheading a similar
move with an open-standards software platform - dubbed Android - and
already counts Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) and Deutsche Telekom AG's (DT)
T-Mobile USA as allies.
"I think it's a reaction to Google," said Tole Hart, an analyst at
Gartner Inc. "I think it'll help them. It gives customers more
options."

I must commend everyone trying to guess the low point of any one
stock, in this particular case Google.  Now it is my turn to
anticipate Google's share price.  Google will revisit the low $600
level WHEN THE STOCK FINALLY SPLITS.  Pull your heads of your
technical ASSertions.

No...I think your playing this correct...

I use simpler technical analysist,..i use 22sma for my gauge,..so far
it works for me,.

Any way this post is the best discussion i've read,..so far,since i
only join for less than 1 month,..other post mostly spam,and
exchanging harsh words,..this is truely a hood discussions,..thx
marcuss

Sounds to me like Marc is just calibrating the numbers to fit this
stock's behavior.  Not rocket science.  Not even science.

Thanks Marcus for your technical analysis. As a share newbie, I have
bought GOOG for the long term, based on it being a solid company.

However, I would like to read up on technical anaysis, and would
appreciate anyone giving advice on good sources of information: books,
web sites etc.

I see a real possibility then in being able to maximise profit by
buying extra stock in the dips as I can only see GOOG advancing in the
long term (years)

Cheers

I think we already had the correction from 747 to 616.  Based on the
second leg from 331.55 to 747.24 and fib ratio a %38.25 correction
would put google at 588.  Although the fib ratio is pretty accurate
there are exceptions. Also based on the bullishness of Google and the
volume support at 616 I dont see it testing these levels unless
something out of ordinary were to happen to the market(ie. 9/11, or
some psycho decides to blow up google headquarters...knock on wood).
This second drop to 650 from 693 might be last chance to get in before
it tests 747 again, especially if Fed's cut rate and good online
shopping numbers.  Plus isn't the 4th and 1st quarter usually good for
Internet Stocks? Colder weather means more people will be browsing
online? What the hell is going on? Just my 2 cents.

Hi Marcus, I don't do technical analysis personally but follow it on
Elliot Wave International (www.elliottwave.com) and alphatrends (by
"Brian"). What they say generally follows your logic using fibonacci
sequence retractions, etc. So it's nice to get another confirming
perspective from someone who's actually invested in google (or at
least interested in it).