I did a comparison to last report in 1/31/07 which show a significant
deceleration in Google business:

Tot rev: Q4 07,  51% inc y-y, 14% inc Q3
            Q4 06,  67% inc y-y, 19% inc Q3
Goog site:Q4 07, 58% inc y-y, 14% inc Q3
            Q4 06,   80% inc y-y, 22% inc Q3
Net rev: Q4 07, 37% inc y-y, 14% inc Q3
            Q4 06,  50% inc y-y, 16% inc Q3
Intern rev: Q4 07, 44% inc y-y, 48%inc Q3
            Q4 06,   44% inc y-y, 38% inc Q3
Paid clicks: Q4 07, 30% inc y-y, 9%inc Q3
            Q4 06,    61% inc y-y, 22% inc Q3

Everything is going down and the deceleration is much faster, especial
the 50% reduction in paid clicks y-y and q-q. Google is going to get
downgrade severely soon. At this rate of deceleration, Google will be
getting negative growth by next fall unless Google can get new source
of revenue to compensate for the decrease in paid clicks which are the
bread and butter for the company. Good luck to Google.

I appreciate your work, T. However, I don't really agree with you. You
can not expect a company to keep the growth rate once the company
become a giant. It's easy to grow their revenue from 10 million to 100
million which is 100 percents, but it's really difficult to make it
from 1 billion to 10 billion. Google already became the king of the
online world. It can not keep the growth rate. I can see the downside
of google though, it won't be that much horrible. With the current
recession circumstance, I would say the goog will up and down between
450 to 500 for the next 6-8 months and bounce back to around 650. If
their Android hit their goal, it will go up to 800-900 in the middle
of 2009.

If google goes down significantly, it would kill most of other ad
company's stock as well. I don't see it would happen once more and
more people depend on online for everything.

Actually, this is what Reyes referred to as the "law of ver large
numbers" in that o-so-painful earnings release two years ago.  Google
cannot sustain the same rate of growth indefinitely because the
current pie has a limited size; you can only grow at 60% for so long
before there is no more room to grow.  It's not going into negative
growth but growth rate will continue to decelerate unless they start
expanding their pie.

You are right, this is why they are venturing into social networks,
mobile network access, foreign markets, and any/every other area.
Their hope is that they can effectively monetize all areas that can be
searched.  This will always be a problem for Google as long as they
expand in double digit growth.  They will eat up the market as they
expand and will need to find new territories.

A good example of this is the Cola Wars between Coke/Pepsi.  They
fought until they reached a stalemate in cola markets share, then the
companies stagnated until they moved into fast food, then lately, the
move into water.  Same thing... you can only have hyper growth in any
market for so long until you either reach 100% or stalemate with your
compeititor.