disclosure: 100% long on goog

The next target is towards low $500.-
--------------------------
there is no context, or any other fundaments in your opinion to take
it our of context, thats why your opinion is irrelevant,.

If U have an opinion and a theory[even a BS 1] about why it is going
to go down. Fire away.

But merely stating an unsubstantiated claim is the equivalent of
idiocy and stupidity with regard to any subject matter.

Here's an example:

I'm long on Goog.  I think there is at least a 65% chance of an
uptrend prior to June OE.  Of course this could change if market
sentiment falls in regard to Google with reference to other players
(maybe big money will get scared off by Ichan or this renewed
microsoft attempt @ yahoo).  Either way its still a short term
problem.  Even in the worst case scenario, Google will have enough
time to ramp up on its other range of products and possible income
sources.  Its inevitable to me.

I'm long on Goog for more than merely short term because of reasons
stated above in addition to the fact that they have a lot of new
untapped sources of income that will eventually become profitable.
About a month ago (maybe less?) I was complaining that there was
hardly any news on Cloud Computing, something Google has more than
enough resources to do.  Recently its starting to pop up in articles.
Yes its still potential and not kinetic returns at the moment, but
over the course of the next few years I really see this as
revolutionizing the IT industry for all businesses.

This still leaves out Android and YouTube.  Dailymotion, a youtube
competitor, is going to see positive returns.  YouTube will soon
follow.

- google is a "one trick" pony. i.e. gets 90% of its revenue from ads

- as aol consolidates it's ad position, we should see some erosion of
market share in the UK

Google pluses (why I'm 100% long on google) short term
- last quarter google, 51% of it's revenue came from outside the US.
Since then the dollar has fallen to new lows which means if it retains
the same performance overseas, we should see a jump in revenue marked
to the dollar

- if you look at the charts there seems to be huge resistance on the
580-590 level. if google breaks that level, we should see the momentum
carry it to around 640.

- I believe the recent hover is due to market manipulation to get the
implied volatility down on the options side. this would decrease the
premium on options.

Google pluses long term:
- if you run with the assumptions of 30%, 28%, 27%, 26% growth over
the next four years, the fair value of google would be around the 700
mark.

- continued confusion around yahoo vs microsoft should drive more on
the fence advertiser into the google camp. if google can leverage this
to a 5% gain on market share, google can easily post 20 eps

The way I'm playing this one is:
25% shares in google
25% deep in the money leaps on google
50% out of money leaps on google

I would also sells some puts to collect the premium but the implied
volatility keeps falling, so instead I will probably continue to
accumulate position in google by purchasing at the money leaps while
google stays under 590.

If google pops above 600 by fall, I will probably reallocate to 100%
google shares.