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Message from discussion Let's talk about earnings.
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pad...@gmail.com  
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 More options Feb 1 2008, 2:06 pm
From: pad...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2008 11:06:54 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Feb 1 2008 2:06 pm
Subject: Let's talk about earnings.
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Well as most people know, Google reported earnings of $4.43 for its 4Q
EPS. This missed the analysts' consensus by $0.01.

The 3Q EPS was $3.91 per share as opposed to the analysts' consensus
of $3.78.

$4.44 - $3.78 = $0.66. So the analysts, without Google offering any
guidance whatsoever, expected a 66 cents increase in EPS over the 4th
quarter. Seems a bit unrealistic to me.

Now let's look at the analysts' estimates for 1Q 2008. According to
Etrade, mean estimate is $4.84 EPS. This is a $0.40 increase from the
4Q 2007 to 1Q 2008 as opposed to the $0.66 increase from 3Q - 4Q 2007.

Also let's take a look at some of the reasons for the miss. One was
the fact that social networking sites did not turn out to be as
profitable as hoped. Well, now they know the problem, they can work on
a way to improve the situation. Also, I recall reading somewhere that
there was something wrong with their search equation that caused the
unexpected decline in ad clicks. The latter may or may not be true,
but the fact remains that there's room for improvement now. Analysts
are not setting the bar for the 1Q of 2008 as high as they did for the
4Q of 2007.

I see some upside in the coming months. Thoughts on this?


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