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Message from discussion Why don't they love Google!
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modelportfolio2003  
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 More options Nov 7 2009, 4:58 am
From: modelportfolio2003 <steve.alt...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 7 Nov 2009 01:58:05 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sat, Nov 7 2009 4:58 am
Subject: Re: Why don't they love Google!
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@Mikey
I have often wondered the same as you but the market is probably more
rational than you think.  Let's look at some estimates for the 3
companies to compare, namely Google, Amazon and Yahoo:
1.  Goog
Net Rev est for 2009/2010/2011 are $17.4bn, $21.04bn and $23.93 bn
implying Y/Y % growth of 10%, 20% and 14%
Eps est for 09/10 and 11 are $23.61, $27.66 and $32.03
implying Y/Y % growth of 17.5%, 17.1% and 15.8%

2.  AMZN
Net rev est for 2009/2010 and 2011 are $23.85bn, $30.3bn and $36.2 bn
implying Y/Y% growth of 24.5%, 27.1% and 19.5%
Eps est for 09/10 and 11 are $2.59, $3.19 and $4.01
implying Y/Y % growth of 24.5%, 27.1% and 19.5%

3.  YHOO
Net rev est for 2009/2010 and 2011 are $4.66 bn, $4.84bn and $5.1 bn
implying Y/Y % growth of -14%, 4% and 5%
Eps est for 09/10 and 11 are $ 0.67, 0.85 and $ 1.05
implying Y/Y growth of -20%, 27% and 24%

So for next two years Google is actually growing at a slower rate in
terms of net rev and eps than Amazon and Yahoo.

At $551, Google is trading at approx 20 times 2010 eps. At $125 AMZN
is trading at 40 times 2010 eps and Yahoo, at $16 is trading at 18
times 2010 eps.

Given improving macro economic picture, I see Google reaching $650 in
next 6-9 months, or a p/e of 23 times 2010 eps est of $27.66.

Comments?

On Nov 6, 1:31 pm, Mikey <archange...@aol.com> wrote:

> Google trades at a forward PE of 21 while Amazon trades at a forward
> PE of 53. Yahoo at forward PE of 37. Google has more cash on the books
> than Amazon, Ebay and Yahoo. Has captured 70% of it's market. While
> Amazon competes with many others. Yahoo is a dead and Ebay is only
> surviving because of paypal. Google has no debt. Amazon, Ebay and
> Yahoo do. Google pulls in more money than Amazon,Yahoo and Ebay.
> Why do they still like Ebay, Amazon and Yahoo better. Does anyone get
> Google. If Google split it's stock the amount of times Amazon,Ebay or
> Yahoo has it would be a 30 dollar stock. Thats a better deal. Is
> everyone so against this company because of it's stock price.


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