marcus.ra...@gmail.com wrote:
> This post is only really directed toward the people who keep asking
> that question and I can only answer from a pure technical perspective
> and my personal technical point of view.  If you are not interested in
> technical analysis of stocks, or my technical analysis specifically on
> goog, you may want to stop reading.

> First of I want to say that I don't know any more about the future of
> this stock than anybody else.  This is not FACT only interpretation of
> the technical data up to todays close.  Any reference to the future is
> only pure speculation on my part.

> Why am I spending time writing this? I remember many sleepless knights
> worrying about losing money when I didn't understand why my stock just
> tanked.  I could never find anybody who would give me an honest
> appraisel or teach me without an agenda.  I assure you, I have no
> agenda except maybe help you sleep at knight if you are worried about
> goog.

> So, what is happening with goog?

> From the beginning:

> Google made a very spectacular move from $172.53 to $475.11,
> consolidated a little, hit a low at $331.55 and made the second leg of
> it's move to it's $747.24 high.  As technicians, we look at fibonacci
> ratios and instead of goog making a 1:1  fibonacci as most stocks do,
> it made a 1:1.382 (another ratio we watch) expansion in price.  From
> it's low, the exact expansion target for a 1:1.382 move would have
> been $749.66.  So, we can all agree that the fibonacci #'s are pretty
> accurate guess'.

> Okay, that's where we came from.  Here's where we currently are.

> From the $747.24 high, we had huge volume off the top.  A combination
> of a lot of profit taking by wall streeters and some serious
> distribution by Google insiders (roughly 1.43 million shares since the
> 1st of September)

> While all that selling was happening on the way down, the other half
> of that huge volume (38 million in 3 days) was buying all the way from
> $747 down to $626 at what they hoped was the bottom.  Unfortunately it
> kept going lower.  Many of those people have been praying that goog
> gets back to their entry price and if it does, they will get their
> money back and promise their spouses that they will NEVER do that
> again.

> That creates the supply all the way back up to the high.  On top of
> the regretful supply, is the insiders who were still distributing huge
> amounts of stock up to as late as Nov.21 adding to the acceleration
> down.

> Now fear is the dominant emotion.  Goog hit a brick wall today at
> $693.  Why $693? $693.84 was the closing price on the really big high
> volume down day. 15 million shares worth of supply thankful to break
> even or sell for a smaller loss. Okay, enough about emotions.

> Wall street is full of professionals who all know about fibonacci
> ratios, price points and volume and they are looking at the same data
> we are.

> So here's the technical picture that I see.

> Aside from general market panic. Goog did exactly what it should
> have.  Large expansion in price in two separate legs.  Hit a high and
> is currently retracing as it should.  As ALL stocks do.  Looking at
> the same fibonacci ratios, a typical retracement is around a .5 to .
> 618 pullback of the length of the entire second leg.

> Goog is currently beginning it's 2nd small leg down.  The first was
> from $747 down to $616, retraced up to $693 today and began it's
> descent on accelerated volume.  If we pull a 1:1 fibonacci expansion
> from the high to the bottom of it's 1st leg down, it retraced almost a
> perfect fib. .618 (another important fib ratio) to $693.  The next leg
> down should roughly equal the first leg down which puts us at a price
> point of $562.18.

> Goog will find some support in the $616 area and strong support around
> the $558 area as there is big volume there.  And should eventually go
> back to test the $747 high.

> If you are looking to buy, I would look at the $560 area, if you are
> long already and in it for the long haul, I would not look at your
> brokerage account for the next month or so, it will come back.  There
> are many charts of very good stocks that have set up very similar to
> goog.

> Goog is a fundamentally strong stock acting perfectly in this volatile
> market.  That's it.

> What I am saying is not Voodoo, or made up and it's definitely not
> fact. It's one way of looking at this crazy market and for me it has
> proven to be more accurate more often than not.

> Do with it what you will.