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  An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 2, 9:35 pm
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 2009 18:35:32 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Nov 2 2009 9:35 pm
Subject: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Here is an important reminder:  Sinovac's 2nd Q Financial Results:

- Reaffirmation of 2009 sales projection to be $55 million to $60
million -
- H1N1 vaccine may drive additional growth -

BEIJING, Aug. 19 /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE Amex:
SVA), a leading developer and provider of vaccines in China, announced
today its unaudited financial results for the three-month and six-
month periods ended June 30, 2009.

  Financial Highlights

    -- Sales for the quarter increased 21% to $20.0 million
    -- Sales for the six-month period increased 5% to $26.6 million
    -- Operating income for the quarter rose 52% to $10.7 million
    -- Operating income for the six-month period increased 11% to
       $11.3 million.
    -- Net income attributable to the shareholders increased 74% to
       $5.8 million in the second quarter, with diluted EPS of $0.14
    -- Cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2009 was $46.7 million.

Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO of Sinovac, commented,
"We are very pleased with our second quarter results, with sales up
21% and net income up 74%. Our revenue growth in the quarter was
partly driven by increased sales of our inactivated hepatitis A
vaccine, Healive®, to the public market, as we worked to fulfill the
previously announced purchase order from China's Ministry of Public
Health (MOH). Sinovac fulfilled and recorded 89% of the original order
for $12.8 million worth of doses in the second quarter of 2009. Going
forward, we will continue to focus on increasing our penetration of
both the private and public markets.

Mr. Yin continued, "We remain very excited about our growth prospects
for 2009 and beyond. In addition to the H1N1 vaccine, we have a robust
pipeline of other investigational vaccines, including enterovirus 71
(EV 71), pneumococcal conjugated vaccine, and Japanese encephalitis.
Overall, our objective for the next three to five years is to have one
or two product candidates per year entering into clinical trials
beginning in 2010 and one or two products launched into the market per
year commencing in 2012. In addition to our organic growth strategy,
we have the financial flexibility to selectively pursue acquisition
candidates that will help to expand our product pipeline, due to $47
million of cash and cash equivalents on our balance sheet. Previously,
we projected revenues of $55 million to $60 million for the full year
2009. Based largely on expected demand for our H1N1 vaccine, we
believe that our 2009 revenues will exceed expectations. However, due
to uncertainty on the timing of future orders, we are not able to
further quantify our expectations.


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bluepeter  
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 More options Nov 3, 4:47 am
From: bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 01:47:18 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 4:47 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Batch Release Report indicated that 4.26m H1N1 vaccine doses had been
supplied by Sinovac as at 30 September, and will therefore be the
figure that counts towards 3Q Income figures due to be released on 18
November.

Another 1.2m doses had been released by 15 October, making a total
release of 5.46m doses out of the 11.49m Chinese Government order,
leaving 6.03m still to be supplied. The current production capacity of
PANFLU.1 therefore appears to be c.2.5m doses, indicating that the
full order should be met by year end and included in final year income
figures.

Given a conservative estimate of c.$3 a dose being paid by the Chinese
Government for its PANFLU.1 orders, it would seem reasonable to
estimate a minimum year end sales of $85m-$95m an increase of approx
100% from the 2008 $46.5m sales figure, and 50% above the company's
original sales estimate of $55m-$60m.

This is indeed impressive, but looking forward the future income for
SVA looks even more impressive, with potential only being limited by
capacity. The capacity issue is being dealt with however, and with
large cash reserves it is likely that SVA will expand through
aquisition as well as organically. The licences granted to supply
Mexico (H1N1) and Hong Kong (H5N1) are but slight, albeit very
important, inroads that SVA is planning longer term. There is, an as
yet unconfirmed order from Mexico for £5m H1N1 vaccine doses, that can
only be met once the Chinese Government has given its permission which
will not be given until January at the earliest, with stockpiling its
own reserves takes priority.

The granting of licences in Mexico and Hong Kong are very important
and much more significant imo, than the current 'bonus' of H1N1
vaccine production/orders. SVA is now becoming internationally
respected, thanks to its fast and safe introduction of recent
vaccines, with H5N1, H1N1 and rabies coming on stream following its
renowned Healive, which on its own previously contributed 70% of SVA's
sales.

Sinovac's stated goal is to aim at supplying 2 billion people,
including Ukraine, Mongolia , India, Korea and Southeast Asia and
South America and other regions. This demonstrates the longer term
potential of SVA, and that this year's estimated 100%+ increase on
sales is but just the start. The U.S. vaccine prices are about $8-10,
giving some idea of potential income. SVA has the advantage of being
able to produce vaccine more cheaply than Western companies and could
undercut prices and still enable a high profit margin. This will
enable SVA to be favoured by developing countries where finances are
limited. Expansion and production increase to meet demand can't happen
overnight, but with its high cash reserve SVA is better placed than
most to fast track the required expansion.

There is much more, and I've only skirted the available information
that's available through research (although research is more difficult
on a China based company). Do your research, and you will realise that
SVA, although attractive as a short term play, is an outstanding long
term investment. People talk about is SVA worth $8, $10,
$15...........at the moment, and worry about MM manipulation! If you
do the research, it is clear, imo, that at today's share price SVA is
an outstanding purchase. Trade it if you wish, but imo trading SVA
will result in any profits gained will be dwarfed by the profits that
will be made by remaining a long term holder (which also reduces to
nil the stress levels!).

All the above is imo. Do your own research and then enjoy the ride.

On 3 Nov, 02:35, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote:


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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 3, 7:31 am
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 04:31:08 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 7:31 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
bluepeter, thanks for the outstanding post.

On Nov 3, 3:47 am, bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com> wrote:


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Kishore  
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 More options Nov 3, 9:44 am
From: Kishore <kishor...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 06:44:55 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 9:44 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Hey You allways give Positive information about Sinovac, I don't know
how far its true. we spend lot of money on this company, its not even
touch to $9 per/share, even flu season about to over,  What is your
suggestion, Would you think, it will go $9 per/share in this year ??

On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Art S.  
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 More options Nov 3, 11:49 am
From: "Art S." <epagemas...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 08:49:26 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 11:49 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Wow…now suddenly sakalas91 is the “bad guy”!!! Comrades, please!!!
These are just opinions of regular people (like you and I), and in no
way, shape or form the trading advice. Use your own judgment and don’t
blame anyone for your trading decision!
Just my 2 cents worth…

On Nov 3, 8:44 am, Kishore <kishor...@gmail.com> wrote:


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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 3, 12:46 pm
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 09:46:38 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 12:46 pm
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Thanks Art S for reiterating what I often write when posting.

Kishore, on balance I think SVA is a good stock to own for reasons I
have already stated.  But it also has several drawbacks, the major one
being that its price is subject to seasonal fluctuation and market
manipulation by Sarsan.  Art S. is right about doing your own dd and
using your own judgment. However, your point is well-taken and should
serve as a warning to all.  Never base your trading decisions on what
you read on discussion boards.  They are useful in that they allow us
to share information, which can improve our morale in difficult times
like these.

IMHO, SVA's price will continue to be held down until about a week
before earnings.  When it will spike, nobody can say.

We are all in the same boat, so I bid you and all others well.

On Nov 3, 10:49 am, "Art S." <epagemas...@gmail.com> wrote:


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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 3, 12:54 pm
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2009 09:54:43 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 3 2009 12:54 pm
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Right now I see a narrowing of the bollinger bands.  Here is a quote
from an article entitled, "Bollinger Bands Explained":

"Sharp moves tend to happen when the bands contract and tighten
towards the average, when the price is less volatile. The longer the
period of less volatility then the higher the propensity for a
breakout of the bands.
When there is a breakout of the band, then the current trend is
usually maintained."

On Nov 3, 11:46 am, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote:


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bluepeter  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:26 am
From: bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:26:16 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:26 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
Research confirms that Chinese Government is paying SVA approx $3 per
H1N1 vaccine. Now possible to calculate 3Q and Full Year sales. This
figure concurs with my estimated figures - see above.

Once Chinese Government gives permission for SVA to export an
estimated $5-$6 price per vaccine is expected.

On 3 Nov, 02:35, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote:


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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 4, 9:42 am
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 06:42:53 -0800 (PST)
Local: Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:42 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
bluepeter, I found a report on Alibaba.com which placed the price at
$3.20 per dose in China -- right around your estimate!

With the good news that is coming in on a weekly basis, the low volume
we are seeing suggests that it is getting harder to buy SVA.  More
demand + less supply = $$$!

On Nov 4, 8:26 am, bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com> wrote:


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bluepeter  
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 More options Nov 5, 11:52 am
From: bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com>
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2009 08:52:20 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Nov 5 2009 11:52 am
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
http://www.sinovac.com/UpLoadFiles/File/Investors/Sinovac%20Investor%...

On 3 Nov, 02:35, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote:


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sakalas91  
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 More options Nov 5, 4:17 pm
From: sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2009 13:17:11 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Nov 5 2009 4:17 pm
Subject: Re: An Important Reminder: Sinovac Sales Projection for 2009
 SEOUL, Sept. 21 (Xinhua) -- South Korea's Green Cross Corp. said
Monday that it signed a contract worth 42.6 billion won, or 35.3
million U.S. dollars with the South Korean government on providing
5.86 million doses of its A /H1N1 vaccine.

    According to Green Cross, the company will provide the government
with flu vaccines by the end of November.

    The South Korean government announced that it plans to have some
13.4 million people, or 27 percent of the nation's population,
inoculated by next February.

    Meanwhile, another local drug maker, Boryung Pharmaceutical Co.,
said last Thursday that it filed for selling a Chinese-made vaccine
for the flu in South Korea within this year.

    Settling a deal with China's Sinovac Biotech Ltd. earlier this
month, the company will import as many as 10 million doses of the
vaccine, enough to inoculate some 5 million people.

    As of Sept. 13, 9,968 patients were confirmed to be infected with
the deadly virus, which has reportedly been related to death of nine
South Koreans, the Ministry of Health and Welfare said.

On Nov 5, 10:52 am, bluepeter <davidsbluebe...@googlemail.com> wrote:


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