Batch Release Report indicated that 4.26m H1N1 vaccine doses had been
supplied by Sinovac as at 30 September, and will therefore be the
figure that counts towards 3Q Income figures due to be released on 18
November.

Another 1.2m doses had been released by 15 October, making a total
release of 5.46m doses out of the 11.49m Chinese Government order,
leaving 6.03m still to be supplied. The current production capacity of
PANFLU.1 therefore appears to be c.2.5m doses, indicating that the
full order should be met by year end and included in final year income
figures.

Given a conservative estimate of c.$3 a dose being paid by the Chinese
Government for its PANFLU.1 orders, it would seem reasonable to
estimate a minimum year end sales of $85m-$95m an increase of approx
100% from the 2008 $46.5m sales figure, and 50% above the company's
original sales estimate of $55m-$60m.

This is indeed impressive, but looking forward the future income for
SVA looks even more impressive, with potential only being limited by
capacity. The capacity issue is being dealt with however, and with
large cash reserves it is likely that SVA will expand through
aquisition as well as organically. The licences granted to supply
Mexico (H1N1) and Hong Kong (H5N1) are but slight, albeit very
important, inroads that SVA is planning longer term. There is, an as
yet unconfirmed order from Mexico for £5m H1N1 vaccine doses, that can
only be met once the Chinese Government has given its permission which
will not be given until January at the earliest, with stockpiling its
own reserves takes priority.

The granting of licences in Mexico and Hong Kong are very important
and much more significant imo, than the current 'bonus' of H1N1
vaccine production/orders. SVA is now becoming internationally
respected, thanks to its fast and safe introduction of recent
vaccines, with H5N1, H1N1 and rabies coming on stream following its
renowned Healive, which on its own previously contributed 70% of SVA's
sales.

Sinovac's stated goal is to aim at supplying 2 billion people,
including Ukraine, Mongolia , India, Korea and Southeast Asia and
South America and other regions. This demonstrates the longer term
potential of SVA, and that this year's estimated 100%+ increase on
sales is but just the start. The U.S. vaccine prices are about $8-10,
giving some idea of potential income. SVA has the advantage of being
able to produce vaccine more cheaply than Western companies and could
undercut prices and still enable a high profit margin. This will
enable SVA to be favoured by developing countries where finances are
limited. Expansion and production increase to meet demand can't happen
overnight, but with its high cash reserve SVA is better placed than
most to fast track the required expansion.

There is much more, and I've only skirted the available information
that's available through research (although research is more difficult
on a China based company). Do your research, and you will realise that
SVA, although attractive as a short term play, is an outstanding long
term investment. People talk about is SVA worth $8, $10,
$15...........at the moment, and worry about MM manipulation! If you
do the research, it is clear, imo, that at today's share price SVA is
an outstanding purchase. Trade it if you wish, but imo trading SVA
will result in any profits gained will be dwarfed by the profits that
will be made by remaining a long term holder (which also reduces to
nil the stress levels!).

All the above is imo. Do your own research and then enjoy the ride.

On 3 Nov, 02:35, sakalas91 <boris.baku...@gmail.com> wrote: