I agree with that assessment, Ralph.  That's why I started buying at
$3.50 and have been scaling in at every major drop, last buys at
$1.23.  I now sit on a 90k share position, cash.  Yes, I'm down big,
but my average is at $2 and I'm not going ANYWHERE on this company.
If it drops to $1, I'll buy more.  This is a no brainer - a company
still substantially adding to its cash position and trading well below
1 on P/E.

The only way this stock loses is if the valuation on boat assets falls
through the floor.  The reason margins were down in the last quarter
was Navios *lacking capacity* to ship everything their customers
wanted, so they had to subcontract.  That, to me, does not indicate
that there is a glut of boats on the market that will flatten their
fleet asset valuations.

A JP Morgan analyst has stated that the resale value of vessels has
dropped 50% recently.

(http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKBNG40410320081120?
symbol=NM.N)

When you look at the 5 year stock price chart, the value from '05-'07
was only $5. It only started getting up to its high of $15 in mid 2007
and this can be explained by the increased value of the daily shipping
rates.

(http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report)

Given that the rates have dropped away significantly, we can consider
these high rates to be a thing of the past, and revenues will be based
on the new and more historically consistent rates.

And this will mean that NM will only achieve its earlier price ceiling
of $5, not the former highs of 2007/2008.

If you are prepared to wait a few years for your return on $1.51 to
get to $5 then ok, it's a good honest stock.

But in the current market, there are better places to put your money
if you are looking for returns. At least if you're in my situation of
too many stocks and too little money.

Monkey sean, please leave us other monkeys alone. We don't like it
when another monkey like you who takes advice from monkey analysts and
how their darts are thrown tells other monkeys they've thrown a bad
dart. We like the fact that one of our darts landed on NM. With a 9c
dividend this Q and then 24c dividend (for year 2009, which = 16%
yield) next year (and yes, we monkeys know dividends can go away) make
this a pretty good stock in our opinion. They've got a good balance
sheet, better than most peers, and they aren't ~as~ sucesptible to the
BDI compared to their peers either. Also, your monkey logic doesn't
make a lot of sense, if ~you~ believe this stock will go to $5 (which
this monkey thinks and hopes so) in "a few years" (let's call a "few
years" = 3 years) then that makes it a stock that improves 50% yoy.
How many other indexs/stocks/mutual funds grow 50% yoy and at a 16%
yield !? Good luck with your cash, go ahead and sell your NM, or even
better, short it, so that I know someone has to buy it if it goes
really low or ~cover~ when they get their little monkey a$$ squeezed.

All good posts.  I agree that looking long as things stabilize NM will
return at least to a $5 valuation.  There isn't going to be any joy in
the short or mid term and a 3 year outlook is very realistic to expect
better days.  Following www.tonmiletrader.com helps put the near term
into perspective.  If you take the time to read down through the posts
you'll have a pretty good idea of the various items that come into
play with shipping.   They cover dry bulk and tankers.

NM will follow general market sentiment but it's interesting to note
institutional ownership.  Last time I checked Nm a while back it was
around 49% and it's currently at around 40% even with the forced
selling.  But when you compare that to a lot of the other shipping
companies that had much higher institutional ownership (60+ %) that
are now down in the low 20ish% range it would appear that most of the
big selling for NM may have diminished somewhat.

With a new 25mil buyback you have to like that because it is an
excellent opportunity for the company to consolidate a substantial %
of their stock at roughly a 80% discount over what the normal
historical price was before the 2007 ramp-up ..... and that was before
they expanded their logistic operations in south america.

NM is cheap and it might even get cheaper.  But in light of the
historical numbers at more normal BDI levels (pre 2007) in conjunction
with their vertical expansion I'd have to say that picking up shares
now at a little over $1 with a 3-5 year horizon is a nice
opportunity.  With all of the orderbook cancellations and more tonnage
being considered for scrapping things will eventually even out.

However, I don't see a need to hurry and jump in.  This slow motion
market train wreck still has a ways to go ... but a 3 year horizon is
very realistic.

just my 2 cents :)

Still redemptions to come by mutual funds that can't borrow money to
pay holders that want out of the market. I've got my order in for
$1.40, 10000. Let's see what happens. Wish me luck. I still think this
could go below $1.

Wtw - I think you are right and it will be interesting to note if
institutional ownership remains stable, gains, or slips in the coming
months.

Wtw - i second no.s's motion for good point.

As the recession lags on, investors may need to redeem their
investments for cash flow purposes thereby giving further impetus to
mutual funds to sell positions. Its something i hadn't fully
considered before.

Aleckza - i'm not sure what your infatuation with monkeys is. There's
probably a forum for it somewhere though. I did not take advice from
the analyst i referenced, i offered his professional statement as
evidence of declining vessel resale values which affect shipping
companies Loan-to-Value covenants with their banks.

If values fall below that of the loan, then banks can force suspension
of the companies dividends, and it makes it harder for the company to
borrow further funds as well.

I referenced this fact as a complement to 'closelyheldca' statement
that he may expect share price to drop if asset values fall.

Second point you raise is "how many other stocks grow 50% YoY?". For
the last decade next to none, but my point is that in the current
depressed market, there are many, many undervalued companies. Picking
a winner isn't going to be hard. You can even do it with that dart
board approach you favoured. What i'm looking for is to pick the best
winner.

I would not dream of shorting this stock, it is too good for that and
definitely one of the best, if not the best, in the industry.

But there is competition for my money at the moment, and by investing
in the early risers i can still possibly be back in time to catch NM's
ascent as well. Whcih brings me to endorse no.s' point of their being
no need to hurry in as this is going to be done in slow motion.

It seems since credit has dried up mutual funds and hedge funds can't
borrow money to cover redemptions and keep porfolios balanced. They
must sell the good along with the bad.

 I heard this on Planet Money, on NPR last week.

I think that is why I am able to buy this stock, which now pays a 25%
dividend and is close to cash value, so cheap. 300 shares at $1.51 a
share.

I'll keep buying every payday if the price stays depressed. We will
never see prices like this again. I hope anyway.

I've lost about 44% in commodity equities this year, but I'm hoping to
make it back on nuggets like this.

Good luck all!

Navios is super cheap. The stock broke the downtrend and they have
just started the buyback. up on huge volume. Next stop is $3.50. Very
nice technicals setting up as well. I dont expect it to revisit the
lows ever! This is a solid investment to hold and watch grow rich!

Oddly shipliners stocks are undervalued for months yet no houses make
any purchase.  Isn't it odd?  Are they lazy?  I do not think they are
stoopid.

What's your deal Carrier?

I read this post from the beginning back in early November.  You've
called the bottom at least 10 times already.  Just keep throwing it
out there until you're right I guess.

BID +20 today....time to buy

sorry, BDI +20

Looking great! I am so happy to see that the downtrend is broken and
the stock is stabilized! I would be soo happy if it dips any lower! I
am ready to buy even more! Navios is one to keep for the ages! They
are ready and able to take advantage of opportunities, and yeah its
true, we are looking at rough waters ahead, but long term.. boy is
Navios a winner, there will be nothing stoping them from growing into
a company with 4 billion in assets, when the global trade environment
gets better, and I guarantee you it will! And when it trades at asset
value, which it is guaranteed to do as well, I think we are looking at
$40 for the stock. Not today or tomorrow, but a few years out, I
really do believe this is possible.

Institutions are waiting to see whats happening before they go long.
Gives the small guys a chance for first dibs.
I like Navios and feel safe holding onto it even with massive
volatility in price. The current haziness covering future business
profitability is something to think about though. If the world
economies take a real turn for the worse, then NM may face liquidity
issues in a couple of years.

Good thing is that future contracts are set in place from what
information I have read. I can understand institutions in this case
though. If you're managing somone else's money than you want to have
some kind of safety net. Shipping companies don't offer much in terms
of competitive advantage, and it's a business which requires a good
deal of capital investment. The investment merit of the business is
rather meak beyond what assets are worth if liquified (which would be
an unfavorable outcome).

I think that the rationale for getting involved with NM now is that
commodities have taken such a hit and so fast have prices fallen that
it may be an overreaction, though difficult to measure how much so if
at all. It's hard to tell and not much more than a guess. What is this
company worth? The materials of the ships +  the state of the economy.
I figure that the state of the economy in the long-term future is not
as bad as prices reflect and that enough people will agree with me
that this stock could gain in the short-term on similar speculation.
However, if I'm wrong, then as long as NM can stay liquid, a position
fortified by the existence of contracts into the future, a relatively
strong balance sheet, and a so far evinced ability to continue
business profitability, then the nature of commodities markets should
eventually carry the price into a satisfactory gain from the current
price.