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Message from discussion Time to start calling a bottom here!
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sean89...@gmail.com  
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 More options Nov 25 2008, 3:50 pm
From: sean89...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2008 12:50:02 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Nov 25 2008 3:50 pm
Subject: Re: Time to start calling a bottom here!
A JP Morgan analyst has stated that the resale value of vessels has
dropped 50% recently.

(http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKBNG40410320081120?
symbol=NM.N)

When you look at the 5 year stock price chart, the value from '05-'07
was only $5. It only started getting up to its high of $15 in mid 2007
and this can be explained by the increased value of the daily shipping
rates.

(http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report)

Given that the rates have dropped away significantly, we can consider
these high rates to be a thing of the past, and revenues will be based
on the new and more historically consistent rates.

And this will mean that NM will only achieve its earlier price ceiling
of $5, not the former highs of 2007/2008.

If you are prepared to wait a few years for your return on $1.51 to
get to $5 then ok, it's a good honest stock.

But in the current market, there are better places to put your money
if you are looking for returns. At least if you're in my situation of
too many stocks and too little money.


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