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  AUY - Looking to go long Gold
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yoel87  
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 More options Sep 2, 7:02 pm
From: yoel87 <yoelmisra...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 16:02:58 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 2 2009 7:02 pm
Subject: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Gold rallied today along with all other gold stocks. Most gold stocks
today were around 10.00%. This further fuels the fact that we are in a
correction. When the market goes down, people run to a safe haven
(insurance), gold. Gold, today closed at $979, a level last seen in
early June when it peaked and failed to go to $1000. I started looking
through several gold stocks, to see if there were any opportunities
going long. Most gold stocks broke through some key resistance, and
tomorrow we will see if the prices manage to hold and create some
support. What I noticed is that almost all gold stocks are near or at
their 52 week high, which were last hit when gold had peaked in early
June, when Gold was around the same price. All gold stocks but one,
AUY (Yamana Gold) like other gold stocks rallied up 10.00%, closing at
over $10.00, so 20.00% off its 52 week high which was hit back in
early June. Therefore, I believe AUY (Yamana Gold) is lagging and
therefore under priced and has the potential for the most upside among
gold stocks. Other gold stocks may just hit new 52 week highs, and
also go higher if gold continues its trend up, however AUY has the
potential to outperform other gold stocks. Although it is true gold
stocks do not reflect at 100% just the price action in gold, but this
is nonetheless an interesting anomaly. That is why I'm going to try to
take a long position with AUY, tomorrow, I'm hoping it pulls back a
little bit tomorrow, or at least hopefully remaining around these
levels. But there is a good chance it continues higher.

In the following chart I have only compared 4 stocks, including AUY,
but the same patter can be observed with most of other gold stocks. To
see the chart go to my blog: http://yoel-stockpredictions.blogspot.com/


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none  
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 More options Sep 2, 7:18 pm
From: none <mooglefi...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 16:18:44 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 2 2009 7:18 pm
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
u gotta thank barrack too.

but anyhow.  i think we all see gold push that line in the chart.
we'll see if it acts resistance and see tomorrow to confirm.
i hope its a head fake and we retrace as dolalr strengthens.

On Sep 2, 1:02 pm, yoel87 <yoelmisra...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Sal Monella  
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 More options Sep 3, 12:11 pm
From: Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 09:11:39 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 3 2009 12:11 pm
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Sorry if this is off topic, but in terms of the broad market
correction, was that it (Tues, Wed)?  I was really expecting another
day or two of selling across the board, and I keep reading about how
September is always a bad month for stocks, etc.  I stockpiled a
little cash so I can do some shopping at corrected levels, but I don't
want to blow my wad prematurely so to speak.  : )

On Sep 2, 6:25 pm, Joe <joeshurgo...@gmail.com> wrote:


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BWL  
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 More options Sep 3, 12:59 pm
From: BWL <blan...@verizon.net>
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 09:59:47 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 3 2009 12:59 pm
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
I would not assume that AUY is going to perform better than other gold
stocks because they still have not hit a new 52 week high. The reason
they have not hit a new high is because they had a disappointing 2nd
quarter which was due to some poor decisions concerning currency
hedging. I still own this stock, but I think other gold miners have
better mangement teams.

On Sep 2, 4:02 pm, yoel87 <yoelmisra...@gmail.com> wrote:


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yoel87  
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 More options Sep 3, 1:40 pm
From: yoel87 <yoelmisra...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 10:40:18 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 3 2009 1:40 pm
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Despite the market being slightly up today, it still trending down.
It's normal to see an up day after 4 straight down sessions. You won't
see the bloodbaths we saw in 2007-2008 where the market would go down
for like almost 2 straight weeks. What you can expect for now is see
bigger and more down days than up. For example the DOW have lose a few
hundred points over the past few days, and today it's up only about 30
points. Tomorrow you may see the DOW again fall 80 points, and the
next day up 20. The fact is that the market has started to trend down.
I think this is just an opportunity to get cheaper shares, but you
should wait until the market resumes its bull run. Right now this is
just a small correction, that may last anywhere from a few weeks to a
a month or two. My personal belief is that we will see pullback to
8800, before continuint its bull run, which I'm willing to bet that
the DOW will finish the year between 10000-11000.

BWL your point about AUY is valid, but I think that as you see gold
continue to rally, when on average let's say on one day gold stocks
will be up 10%, I think there is a good chance AUY will be up 1% or 2%
more and will eventually catch up. AUY has not hit it's 52 week high
because it was damaged by its dissapointing 2nd quarter, and that was
priced into the stock. But now traders look towards the future, and
will probable expect better result, if not the catch will happen when
the 3rd quarter results beat estimates. Please keep in mind that I
look mostly at technical analysis alone, and despite fundamentals
driving the stock, technical analysis allows you to find good entry
and exit points. Fundamental analysis answers the question "what to
buy?" (and also why did the price go up or down?), but technical
analysis answer the question of "when should I buy it".

follow my blog: http://yoel-stockpredictions.blogspot.com/
On Sep 3, 12:11 pm, Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com> wrote:


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B.T.  
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 More options Sep 3, 2:15 pm
From: "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2009 11:15:34 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 3 2009 2:15 pm
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
INSANE call activity on front month GLD today. Also January calls are
VERY heavy at $105, roughly $1,070 spot gold price. December calls
covering over 2,000,000 GLD shares being traded today at the $105
strike. This is quite a lot of pressure on gold pricing today, and
this week, and there is a MASSIVE amount fo open interest piled on by
GS and others from 2 months ago that will need to be liquidated into
this rise.

The action is heavy and sudden, in the midst of some positive economic
data. I admit, I had a sell yesterday on the run up to AUY $9.65, and
I called it wrong, but I'll say the same here, I do not see conditions
correct for this to last. Premiums on GLD puts are heavily discounted
in today's session. If you are convinced spot gold will keep rallying,
I suggest opening a small position of GLD January $90 puts. If you are
not convinced, I recommend the same.

We've talked about this endlessly on this board, but here we are, some
positive data, and a large move in spot gold, and here AUY is giving
us that leveraged performance it always does under these conditions. A
little bit more upward price movement and I can get myself out of
October (finally). But, I still can not trade AUY, nor open any calls
or puts in this environment specifically because of how AUY behaves.

We have not spent enough time at gold $980/oz and we will return there
for sure in my opinion. There I will be waiting.

Until then, BX is set to go back under $12, and if it does, January
$12.50 calls will look delicious at around a $1.00 premium.

Gentlemen, on a somber note, I think most of us have turned at least
10% returns on DXO at one time or other over the months, and I thought
it fitting to pay a small tribute, perhaps a moment of silence, in
respect. Thank you DB and all your other levered funds, a special time
and special place in free market history.


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B.T.  
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 More options Sep 4, 8:32 am
From: "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 05:32:08 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 4 2009 8:32 am
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
The data does not look so grim today, but, bottom line is unemployment
came in worse than expected, inching higher. It may not have too big
an impact, as most people are waiting to cross the magic 10%, but
still, this could be enough to push gold over $1,000

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B.T.  
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 More options Sep 4, 8:47 am
From: "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 05:47:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: AUY - Looking to go long Gold
AUY is merciless in pre-market here. Gold moves down like $1.50 and
AUY falls $0.15, craziness! If employment data is going to be any kind
of catalyst I think we'll have to wait for markets to open.

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Subject changed: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold  
Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 4, 10:53 am
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 07:53:17 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 4 2009 10:53 am
Subject: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Hey all, it's been awhile, still holding from $8.78.  Question for BT/
Arturo or anyone else with TA/insight that's better than mine.  What
do you all think about the "4697381 shares that have been shorted at
the volume weighted average SqueezeTrigger Price of $10.622" (from
google blog).  I know we already hit 10.80 the other day, just curious
what everyone is thinking going into the holiday weekend?

On Sep 4, 8:47 am, "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com> wrote:


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B.T.  
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 More options Sep 4, 12:14 pm
From: "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 09:14:25 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 4 2009 12:14 pm
Subject: Re: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Interesting... last time this came up was in late May. We had a spike
in gold prices which finally helped to realize amazing 1st qtr
earnings. Back then, I believe the "trigger" price was $8 and change
as well as a larger number of shares. To see it elevated to $10.62 now
is really quite significant, and since the market opened today AUY has
been less influenced by spot gold, telling me that traders are taking
their money or even getting short here. I have not looked at options
trading today yet though. There was anticipation that jobs numbers
were really going to be nasty and this has shown to not be the case.

The problem is that I think these releases come out after-the-fact. I
think we have had some covering here this week on fears of quickly
rising gold and strong volume scaring shorts out of their position,
where new shorts were piled on in yesterday's session.

Short interest of about 4.5 million shares is really not much to shake
a stick at, especially at this price. It tells me that AUY has a
strong upside potential from here, but we need something like the
dollar weakening or gold breaking out even higher to do it. Here's
why: when we lose volume support this stock could easily drop by over
a dollar, and volume comes from fundamentals. The Hang Seng had a
great rally overnight, curbing foreign gold demand as well.

Also AUY's 200 and 50 day sma are both uptrending now. The 50-day has
been acting as resistance since mid-June and it's nice to see AUY back
on top of it, and hints that it will be very difficult to get below
$9.15 anytime soon. Basically, there is a lot of technical support to
go higher, give or take a few classic AUY profit-taking dips. I am
referring to volume, the 200-day, and a possible pennant breakout on
spot gold. But my concern is in fundamental support, which I think
lacks, and when we lose volume, that new short interest will be like a
wall never breached, due to tumbling gold prices. Long term bullish on
gold and AUY, but I think this is short-lived.

Art where are you man? It's not the same without the whole point/
counter-point thing anymore.

On Sep 4, 10:53 am, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Patrick  
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 More options Sep 4, 2:27 pm
From: Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 11:27:55 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 4 2009 2:27 pm
Subject: Re: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold
yea, right now we're looking at the 1,000 resistance level, and I
think it will take a news event to jump above that.

I see us dropping back down next week after bouncing off the 1,000
level today.  I don't think there is the stomach to go after that
price level.  At this point I'm a buyer sub $950, before that I'd say
you're adding to your position to early.

On the other hand right now is a perfect time to take some profits.
The way gold moves we'll definitely have some consolidation before
making a run.  The trend the last year or so has actually been 3
bounces off major resistance before actually breaking out.

On Sep 4, 12:14 pm, "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 4, 4:24 pm
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 13:24:45 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Sep 4 2009 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold
BT/Patrick - Pretty much what I was thinking, but it's always good to
hear it from someone like you two who always have solid posts.  Like I
said, still in at 8.78, maybe should have sold today and waited to
bounce off of 1000 resistance/next dip to jump back in, but I'll take
the chance and hold over the weekend.  It Auy holds in the 10s on Tue,
I'll probably dump and wait for another entry.  Enjoy the holiday!

On Sep 4, 2:27 pm, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:


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chris.gerets  
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 More options Sep 8, 10:31 am
From: "chris.gerets" <chris.ger...@telenet.be>
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2009 07:31:10 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Sep 8 2009 10:31 am
Subject: Re: 9/3 AUY - Looking to go long Gold
Did you sell your shares 'Live the Dream'? I'm in same situation as
you, in at 8,77.

On 4 sep, 22:24, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Subject changed: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion  
Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 8, 10:52 am
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2009 07:52:37 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Sep 8 2009 10:52 am
Subject: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Still holding, honestly, I was watching yesterday when gold hit 1000,
european and asian markets were in the green, and thought for sure
gold would bounce back down under the 1000 resistance, but it seems to
be holding thus far.  Thinking about selling, but I think gold prices
may have a little more room to run up this week before heading south.
Any thoughts from anyone else?

On Sep 8, 10:31 am, "chris.gerets" <chris.ger...@telenet.be> wrote:


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Sal Monella  
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 More options Sep 8, 4:34 pm
From: Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2009 13:34:03 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Sep 8 2009 4:34 pm
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Dang, I wish I would have gotten my sell order in early.  Any thoughts
on if AUY will push over $11 again this week?

On Sep 8, 8:52 am, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 9, 8:15 am
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 05:15:22 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 8:15 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Yeah, I hate to see it drop as well, but I'm currently into a lot of
longer term investing, not making a whole lot of "trades" so to speak,
if Yamana dips further I'm still holding on the long term inflation
play, have to have some type of hedge in the portfolio.  Strange
though, as of 8 am gold is back up around 998 and Yamana is down in
pre-market.  Maybe a lot of sellers anticipating gold to continue its
decline.  If gold holds, maybe we'll have a re-bound.  Thoughts?

On Sep 8, 4:34 pm, Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Sal Monella  
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 More options Sep 9, 9:50 am
From: Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 06:50:13 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 9:50 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
I don't like seeing gold up and AUY flat, then gold down and AUY
down.  Rinse, wash, repeat.  I'm not in at a very good price (9.70),
so while I'd like to hold out for $11/share, I'm thinking of taking
Steve Miller's advice (take the money & run), then wait for a better
entry price.

On Sep 9, 6:15 am, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Patrick  
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 More options Sep 9, 10:32 am
From: Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 07:32:55 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 10:32 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
AUY and the other miners are excellent long term holds.  But are
popular on the boards b/c they also tend to be predictable and easily
tradeable from a technical standpoint.

I'm bummed that I got out around 9.70, but not too bummed as I'm sure
I'll get a chance to buy in at a lower price than that.

Right now gold looks great with one major risk factor.  If the broad
market makes a major leg down.  Specifically retracing back down to
the 8ks on the dow, 800s on the S&P there will be a lot of margin
calls and a last year gold took a major hit because investors needed
cash elsewhere.  There is a real risk of that happening again this
fall.  No drops below $4 like last year, but a dip into the 7s is
probably a real possibility.  If you can sit on gold and ignore it,
the price will be back in this range pretty quickly after the drop.
On the other hand if such a move happens and you can load up in the
7s, it would be a very nice, low risk trade.

As long as the broad market holds up, 1033 is the new target to
watch.  If we get close, expect a bounce off the resistance.
Otherwise gold looks like it is waiting for something to happen right
now.  Kinda boring actually.

On Sep 9, 9:50 am, Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com> wrote:


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BWL  
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 More options Sep 9, 12:27 pm
From: BWL <blan...@verizon.net>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 09:27:06 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 12:27 pm
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
I'm out of this stock now. It is not behaving as well as other gold
miners and I no longer have confidence in the management. If and when
I re-enter the gold market it will be with another company.

On Sep 9, 7:32 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:


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maverick  
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 More options Sep 9, 12:59 pm
From: maverick <BIGCAT...@VERIZON.NET>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 09:59:13 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 12:59 pm
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Ive reduced mostly all my exposure in the miners for now.   If one
asks me....golds traded higher off technicals lately which is always
dangerous to stay long.  You cant hold the bag with gold, when you do,
you get the "Zinger".  I havnt been following it or charting it so
I'll not reply about its future until I put some time in.  Ive been
playing biotech lately, and just went short the SnP.  but GL to the
longs..truly.

On Sep 9, 12:27 pm, BWL <blan...@verizon.net> wrote:


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Sal Monella  
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 More options Sep 9, 2:30 pm
From: Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 11:30:21 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 2:30 pm
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Out @ 10.27.  I'll be kicking myself when AUY blows up to $15
tomorrow  :)
Or maybe I'll be relieved when it takes a nosedive to $8... time will
tell.

On Sep 9, 10:59 am, maverick <BIGCAT...@VERIZON.NET> wrote:

...

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Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 9, 2:47 pm
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 11:47:31 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 9 2009 2:47 pm
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
My setiment exactly, in @ 878 out @ 1022, I got greedy on the last
pop, and held too long.  Like I said, was planning on holding, but I
don't like the way AUY is behaving. I'll wait for the next dip and
rebuy.

On Sep 9, 2:30 pm, Sal Monella <spoonf...@gmail.com> wrote:

...

read more »


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B.T.  
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 More options Sep 10, 12:13 am
From: "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2009 21:13:26 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 10 2009 12:13 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Well, finally back working on the road. Back on the west coast for the
next few weeks... anyone paying attention may remember way back when I
asked Ash about local "services" that may be available. Anyway, that
was a lot of good and bad calls ago. Looks like the board sentiment,
as well as my own, were right about the pullback, but I haven't been
able to spend the proper time digesting the macro economic,
geopolitical, and spot gold issues. I'll tell you what else... living
on the west coast teaches you one lesson in a hurry: the earth
functions on eastern standard time!

mav- we talked about GE a few times on here, from being a "dirty girl"
under $8, to most recently when GE was in the 11's. I hope you are
still in! I got sept $15 calls @ .07 back then, and that upgrade
turned a losing position into something that could be massive. Come on
cash for appliances and push GE over the top! I have been out of the
game otherwise though. I never got my BX < $12, but you gotta admit,
that's still a nice bounce that tripled Jan $12,50 calls (for the
second time!!!). There will still be another chance I think, they will
have some bad press soon. Anyway gl to all, I'm not going to be around
too much

On Sep 9, 11:47 am, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com> wrote:

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Live the Dream 101  
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 More options Sep 10, 10:09 am
From: Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2009 07:09:05 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 10 2009 10:09 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Hey BT, good to hear from you, stay in touch.  That's funny about GE,
I've been watching as well, waiting for a dip.  As for AUY, another
day of erratic behavior, gold is down from yesterday, and AUY is
up...glad to be out, I'm still ong on gold and inflation, but waiting
for another entry point.

-Live the Dream

On Sep 10, 12:13 am, "B.T." <b.t.hand...@gmail.com> wrote:

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maverick  
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 More options Sep 10, 11:01 am
From: maverick <BIGCAT...@VERIZON.NET>
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:01:03 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Sep 10 2009 11:01 am
Subject: Re: 9/8 Yamana Gold Discussion
Ive been out of GE since 14 or so.  The only stock m holding at the
moment is CTIC. And a large sum of it.  Ive been tracking it for
awhile...Theres a lot of news thats been targeted for the next two
weeks or so, so thats where Im parked.  If anyone decides to chew on a
little just make sure you set a stop of 1.4.  By the time it gets to
1.35 that will trigger too many stops and your loss will great.
GL.Mav

On Sep 10, 10:09 am, Live the Dream 101 <chrisvall...@gmail.com>
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