> I'm watching AUY for them to show a bottom.  At that point I'm
> doubling down on the long term hold I have on AUY.  Having watched
> these guys for a few years.  A dip to say 8.50 or 9 is going to be
> rewarded with a run up into the mid 11s at least.  Its just the way
> AUY is.  They are a great swing trade, and I see one forming here.
> Look for a bottom and jump on.  Its just like X.  An easy one to play.

> On Mar 12, 2:35 pm, Dueschebag2010 <scotsman...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> > lol. I havnt touched the miners lately or even care to place a trade.
> > I feel gold at current pricing is overvalued.  btw...always an
> > interesting post from pat.

> > On Mar 12, 12:18 pm, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Patrick, I like your analysis- it really takes me back to my
> > > S.A.T.s..:)

> > > On Mar 12, 7:03 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > I'm unimpressed by the article.  Simply tracking prices over an
> > > > arbitrary 3 year period is not very helpful.  In fact its less than
> > > > helpful b/c it isn't even an arbitrary 3 year period.  It is a 3 year
> > > > period pegged to a period of historically high growth in the gold
> > > > commodity.  What this tells you is that miner price movement is not on
> > > > the same time scale as the movement in the commodity.

> > > > If we pegged this period to the bottom of the economic cycle when gold
> > > > miners were at their lowest and tracked to today, gold miners would
> > > > have dramatically outperformed gold.  In his period 2007-2010, AUY
> > > > went from 13 to 10.  If he tracked gold from November 2008 to now,
> > > > you'd see AUY go from 4 to 10, a 250% gain, vs a roughly 35-40% gain
> > > > in gold.

> > > > The reality is that the increase in gold price improves the
> > > > profitability of the miners and results in improved stock price over a
> > > > long haul as they get to keep producing gold at the old price and all
> > > > of the increase in gold is continually recorded as profits.

> > > > If you have 100 loaves of bread you bought for $20, and after a
> > > > magician wipes out the yeast supply the price of bread permanently
> > > > goes up to $1 a loaf, you can sell the bread for $100.  That is a nice
> > > > 500% increase.

> > > > If you have a yeast culture (miner) that can produce enough yeast for
> > > > 20 loaves a week for 100 weeks and you paid $20 for it, you have a
> > > > yeast cost of about a penny per loaf.  That is about right when loaves
> > > > were $20 for 100, or 20 cents a loaf.  If you had a production cost of
> > > > 15 cents a loaf, 1 cent for yeast 14 cents for other materials and
> > > > labor, you make 5 cents a loaf in the beginning.  Now that yeast has
> > > > skyrocketed and bread is $1 a loaf, you are now making 85 cents a
> > > > loaf.

> > > > Over the period you will ultimately produce 2,000 loaves over the next
> > > > 2 years.  You will make $2,000 and your cost will remain 15cents a
> > > > loaf. or $300.  Your net profit will be $1,700 vs an expected profit
> > > > of $100, when you were making just 5 cents per loaf.  That is a 1700%
> > > > gain.  It takes two years to realize the full 1700% but it is way more
> > > > than 500%.

> > > > notice the timeframes are different, but the profits far more
> > > > substantial.  That is the case for miners.  You only pocket the
> > > > difference with the commodity.  With the miner, those reserves are
> > > > just sitting there waiting to be cashed in as major profits for the
> > > > next 10 or 20 years, and for a low cost producer that means a lot of
> > > > money.  Just something to think about

> > > > On Mar 11, 5:53 pm, CAPITALIZER <CAPITALI...@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:

> > > > > There are buyers at this $1100 level but if you want miners that
> > > > > outperform gold look elsewhere. Check out this link.

> > > > >http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> > > > > On Mar 11, 9:59 am, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > > At least it bounced off resistance today. Dennis Gartman was just on
> > > > > > cnbc saying how he thinks this sell off in gold is wrong because it's
> > > > > > based on China trying to control it's own state of economy. Anyone
> > > > > > buying these levels?- Hide quoted text -

> > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -

> On Mar 12, 12:18 pm, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Patrick, I like your analysis- it really takes me back to my
> > S.A.T.s..:)

> > On Mar 12, 7:03 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > I'm unimpressed by the article.  Simply tracking prices over an
> > > arbitrary 3 year period is not very helpful.  In fact its less than
> > > helpful b/c it isn't even an arbitrary 3 year period.  It is a 3 year
> > > period pegged to a period of historically high growth in the gold
> > > commodity.  What this tells you is that miner price movement is not on
> > > the same time scale as the movement in the commodity.

> > > If we pegged this period to the bottom of the economic cycle when gold
> > > miners were at their lowest and tracked to today, gold miners would
> > > have dramatically outperformed gold.  In his period 2007-2010, AUY
> > > went from 13 to 10.  If he tracked gold from November 2008 to now,
> > > you'd see AUY go from 4 to 10, a 250% gain, vs a roughly 35-40% gain
> > > in gold.

> > > The reality is that the increase in gold price improves the
> > > profitability of the miners and results in improved stock price over a
> > > long haul as they get to keep producing gold at the old price and all
> > > of the increase in gold is continually recorded as profits.

> > > If you have 100 loaves of bread you bought for $20, and after a
> > > magician wipes out the yeast supply the price of bread permanently
> > > goes up to $1 a loaf, you can sell the bread for $100.  That is a nice
> > > 500% increase.

> > > If you have a yeast culture (miner) that can produce enough yeast for
> > > 20 loaves a week for 100 weeks and you paid $20 for it, you have a
> > > yeast cost of about a penny per loaf.  That is about right when loaves
> > > were $20 for 100, or 20 cents a loaf.  If you had a production cost of
> > > 15 cents a loaf, 1 cent for yeast 14 cents for other materials and
> > > labor, you make 5 cents a loaf in the beginning.  Now that yeast has
> > > skyrocketed and bread is $1 a loaf, you are now making 85 cents a
> > > loaf.

> > > Over the period you will ultimately produce 2,000 loaves over the next
> > > 2 years.  You will make $2,000 and your cost will remain 15cents a
> > > loaf. or $300.  Your net profit will be $1,700 vs an expected profit
> > > of $100, when you were making just 5 cents per loaf.  That is a 1700%
> > > gain.  It takes two years to realize the full 1700% but it is way more
> > > than 500%.

> > > notice the timeframes are different, but the profits far more
> > > substantial.  That is the case for miners.  You only pocket the
> > > difference with the commodity.  With the miner, those reserves are
> > > just sitting there waiting to be cashed in as major profits for the
> > > next 10 or 20 years, and for a low cost producer that means a lot of
> > > money.  Just something to think about

> > > On Mar 11, 5:53 pm, CAPITALIZER <CAPITALI...@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:

> > > > There are buyers at this $1100 level but if you want miners that
> > > > outperform gold look elsewhere. Check out this link.

> > > >http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> > > > On Mar 11, 9:59 am, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > At least it bounced off resistance today. Dennis Gartman was just on
> > > > > cnbc saying how he thinks this sell off in gold is wrong because it's
> > > > > based on China trying to control it's own state of economy. Anyone
> > > > > buying these levels?- Hide quoted text -

> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> On Mar 12, 7:03 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I'm unimpressed by the article.  Simply tracking prices over an
> > arbitrary 3 year period is not very helpful.  In fact its less than
> > helpful b/c it isn't even an arbitrary 3 year period.  It is a 3 year
> > period pegged to a period of historically high growth in the gold
> > commodity.  What this tells you is that miner price movement is not on
> > the same time scale as the movement in the commodity.

> > If we pegged this period to the bottom of the economic cycle when gold
> > miners were at their lowest and tracked to today, gold miners would
> > have dramatically outperformed gold.  In his period 2007-2010, AUY
> > went from 13 to 10.  If he tracked gold from November 2008 to now,
> > you'd see AUY go from 4 to 10, a 250% gain, vs a roughly 35-40% gain
> > in gold.

> > The reality is that the increase in gold price improves the
> > profitability of the miners and results in improved stock price over a
> > long haul as they get to keep producing gold at the old price and all
> > of the increase in gold is continually recorded as profits.

> > If you have 100 loaves of bread you bought for $20, and after a
> > magician wipes out the yeast supply the price of bread permanently
> > goes up to $1 a loaf, you can sell the bread for $100.  That is a nice
> > 500% increase.

> > If you have a yeast culture (miner) that can produce enough yeast for
> > 20 loaves a week for 100 weeks and you paid $20 for it, you have a
> > yeast cost of about a penny per loaf.  That is about right when loaves
> > were $20 for 100, or 20 cents a loaf.  If you had a production cost of
> > 15 cents a loaf, 1 cent for yeast 14 cents for other materials and
> > labor, you make 5 cents a loaf in the beginning.  Now that yeast has
> > skyrocketed and bread is $1 a loaf, you are now making 85 cents a
> > loaf.

> > Over the period you will ultimately produce 2,000 loaves over the next
> > 2 years.  You will make $2,000 and your cost will remain 15cents a
> > loaf. or $300.  Your net profit will be $1,700 vs an expected profit
> > of $100, when you were making just 5 cents per loaf.  That is a 1700%
> > gain.  It takes two years to realize the full 1700% but it is way more
> > than 500%.

> > notice the timeframes are different, but the profits far more
> > substantial.  That is the case for miners.  You only pocket the
> > difference with the commodity.  With the miner, those reserves are
> > just sitting there waiting to be cashed in as major profits for the
> > next 10 or 20 years, and for a low cost producer that means a lot of
> > money.  Just something to think about

> > On Mar 11, 5:53 pm, CAPITALIZER <CAPITALI...@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:

> > > There are buyers at this $1100 level but if you want miners that
> > > outperform gold look elsewhere. Check out this link.

> > >http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> > > On Mar 11, 9:59 am, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > At least it bounced off resistance today. Dennis Gartman was just on
> > > > cnbc saying how he thinks this sell off in gold is wrong because it's
> > > > based on China trying to control it's own state of economy. Anyone
> > > > buying these levels?- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> If we pegged this period to the bottom of the economic cycle when gold
> miners were at their lowest and tracked to today, gold miners would
> have dramatically outperformed gold.  In his period 2007-2010, AUY
> went from 13 to 10.  If he tracked gold from November 2008 to now,
> you'd see AUY go from 4 to 10, a 250% gain, vs a roughly 35-40% gain
> in gold.

> The reality is that the increase in gold price improves the
> profitability of the miners and results in improved stock price over a
> long haul as they get to keep producing gold at the old price and all
> of the increase in gold is continually recorded as profits.

> If you have 100 loaves of bread you bought for $20, and after a
> magician wipes out the yeast supply the price of bread permanently
> goes up to $1 a loaf, you can sell the bread for $100.  That is a nice
> 500% increase.

> If you have a yeast culture (miner) that can produce enough yeast for
> 20 loaves a week for 100 weeks and you paid $20 for it, you have a
> yeast cost of about a penny per loaf.  That is about right when loaves
> were $20 for 100, or 20 cents a loaf.  If you had a production cost of
> 15 cents a loaf, 1 cent for yeast 14 cents for other materials and
> labor, you make 5 cents a loaf in the beginning.  Now that yeast has
> skyrocketed and bread is $1 a loaf, you are now making 85 cents a
> loaf.

> Over the period you will ultimately produce 2,000 loaves over the next
> 2 years.  You will make $2,000 and your cost will remain 15cents a
> loaf. or $300.  Your net profit will be $1,700 vs an expected profit
> of $100, when you were making just 5 cents per loaf.  That is a 1700%
> gain.  It takes two years to realize the full 1700% but it is way more
> than 500%.

> notice the timeframes are different, but the profits far more
> substantial.  That is the case for miners.  You only pocket the
> difference with the commodity.  With the miner, those reserves are
> just sitting there waiting to be cashed in as major profits for the
> next 10 or 20 years, and for a low cost producer that means a lot of
> money.  Just something to think about

> On Mar 11, 5:53 pm, CAPITALIZER <CAPITALI...@HOTMAIL.COM> wrote:

> > There are buyers at this $1100 level but if you want miners that
> > outperform gold look elsewhere. Check out this link.

> >http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> > On Mar 11, 9:59 am, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > At least it bounced off resistance today. Dennis Gartman was just on
> > > cnbc saying how he thinks this sell off in gold is wrong because it's
> > > based on China trying to control it's own state of economy. Anyone
> > > buying these levels?- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> On Mar 11, 9:59 am, ting ting <poppinch...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > At least it bounced off resistance today. Dennis Gartman was just on
> > cnbc saying how he thinks this sell off in gold is wrong because it's
> > based on China trying to control it's own state of economy. Anyone
> > buying these levels?

> http://seekingalpha.com/article/191900-what-s-better-gold-gold-stocks...

> On Mar 9, 7:49 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > AUY seems to be tanking for the reason it always struggles to grow.

> > Horrible hedging by management is eating into its overall profits, and
> > they are not growing production as quickly as they said that they
> > would.

> > That being said, the numbers do keep improving, and someday they will
> > get this hedging thing in order.

> > I feel like this is a somewhat disappointing short term play, but has
> > a lot of long term potential. As the short term news keeps
> > dissapointing the long term fundamentals do keep improving.  At some
> > point AUY is going to stop issuing more shares, get some extra
> > production out of these mines, and stop loosing money with their
> > hedges.  That is going to drive the P/E on this thing down to the mid
> > single digits again and send the stock up about 50%.

> > So I say hold onto it until they finally produce a good quarter, cash
> > out on the huge gains, then buy back in when they inevitably
> > dissapoint the following quarter to find a great buy-in opportunity.

> > On Mar 8, 11:55 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > dollar rally mostly.

> > > EPS of .14 vs .15 estimate doedn't move the needle

> > > I gotta read through the last quarter to see what's up.

> > > On Mar 4, 3:20 pm, Sjj <sjjdil...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Any one know why this stock is tanking?

> > > > On Feb 8, 11:16 am, Jealous <jealousso...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > I pulled a quick trade when AUY dipped under 10. I am currently out
> > > > > again. Miners seem to be playing 1 day ahead of gold...last friday up
> > > > > with gold down....today down with gold up. Not a clear indication to
> > > > > me. Vix is pretty high so we can see some big swings this week. Other
> > > > > then that im really on the side here. (Im bored and just trying to
> > > > > spark up convo on this board again)- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Horrible hedging by management is eating into its overall profits, and
> they are not growing production as quickly as they said that they
> would.

> That being said, the numbers do keep improving, and someday they will
> get this hedging thing in order.

> I feel like this is a somewhat disappointing short term play, but has
> a lot of long term potential. As the short term news keeps
> dissapointing the long term fundamentals do keep improving.  At some
> point AUY is going to stop issuing more shares, get some extra
> production out of these mines, and stop loosing money with their
> hedges.  That is going to drive the P/E on this thing down to the mid
> single digits again and send the stock up about 50%.

> So I say hold onto it until they finally produce a good quarter, cash
> out on the huge gains, then buy back in when they inevitably
> dissapoint the following quarter to find a great buy-in opportunity.

> On Mar 8, 11:55 am, Patrick <patrickpbren...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > dollar rally mostly.

> > EPS of .14 vs .15 estimate doedn't move the needle

> > I gotta read through the last quarter to see what's up.

> > On Mar 4, 3:20 pm, Sjj <sjjdil...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Any one know why this stock is tanking?

> > > On Feb 8, 11:16 am, Jealous <jealousso...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > I pulled a quick trade when AUY dipped under 10. I am currently out
> > > > again. Miners seem to be playing 1 day ahead of gold...last friday up
> > > > with gold down....today down with gold up. Not a clear indication to
> > > > me. Vix is pretty high so we can see some big swings this week. Other
> > > > then that im really on the side here. (Im bored and just trying to
> > > > spark up convo on this board again)- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> EPS of .14 vs .15 estimate doedn't move the needle

> I gotta read through the last quarter to see what's up.

> On Mar 4, 3:20 pm, Sjj <sjjdil...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Any one know why this stock is tanking?

> > On Feb 8, 11:16 am, Jealous <jealousso...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > I pulled a quick trade when AUY dipped under 10. I am currently out
> > > again. Miners seem to be playing 1 day ahead of gold...last friday up
> > > with gold down....today down with gold up. Not a clear indication to
> > > me. Vix is pretty high so we can see some big swings this week. Other
> > > then that im really on the side here. (Im bored and just trying to
> > > spark up convo on this board again)

> On Feb 8, 11:16 am, Jealous <jealousso...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I pulled a quick trade when AUY dipped under 10. I am currently out
> > again. Miners seem to be playing 1 day ahead of gold...last friday up
> > with gold down....today down with gold up. Not a clear indication to
> > me. Vix is pretty high so we can see some big swings this week. Other
> > then that im really on the side here. (Im bored and just trying to
> > spark up convo on this board again)