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  Running like the glory days
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Mike  
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 More options Sep 14, 12:59 pm
From: Mike <mike...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:59:44 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 14 2009 12:59 pm
Subject: Running like the glory days
I'm sure some of us remember the run up to 70.  Seems like every day
was a new 52 week high.

Now CROX is doing it again as it powers through level after level
without much in the way of new news.  Short covering, sure, but I
doubt that accounts for all of the move.  Some momo players, of
course.  Personally I think some investors just decided that a brand
with a global presence is worth something.  Love them or hate them
virtually the entire world is aware of the Crocs brand.  There is also
a core constituency of buyers who will continue to buy new pairs of
Crocs because they use them on the job.

If you bought at 70 then this is obviously still a very broken stock.
but the company itself has shown that it has staying power.  I think
some people thought it was going to go back down to 20 mil in sales
and then go away completely.  It hasn't turned out that way and if you
were paying attention you'd know that was very unlikely.  The core
audience for Crocs is showing just how strong they are as Summer sales
held up despite a severe worldwide recession/depression (particularly
for discretionary consumer items).  That shows a company that is doing
a lot of things right.

I think the near term fair value is about 8$ a share.  Sadly that is
WAY below what my cost basis (by about 1/2) is but I think that number
can go up very quickly if the world economy turns toward growth
again.  I'm probably a buyer on the next dip after the large loss
coming in the next 10Q.


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tdskier  
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 More options Sep 14, 2:48 pm
From: tdskier <tdsk...@hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:48:27 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 14 2009 2:48 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
So as I am holding CROX at 3.60 I am thinking it about time to sell
out.. You are thinking $8? I wonder what will push it there.

On Sep 14, 12:59 pm, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Mike  
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 More options Sep 14, 7:05 pm
From: Mike <mike...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:05:15 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 14 2009 7:05 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.704495/browse_thread/t...

That is the post where I presenting my reasoning.

On Sep 14, 2:48 pm, tdskier <tdsk...@hotmail.com> wrote:


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Andrew  
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 More options Sep 15, 2:41 pm
From: Andrew <andrew.evage...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:41:32 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Sep 15 2009 2:41 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
Too bad all of yesterday's gains seem to be lost today.

On Sep 14, 12:59 pm, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Parlee  
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 More options Sep 21, 2:20 pm
From: Parlee <flo...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:20:02 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 21 2009 2:20 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
Clearly this is/was a broken company, but the Snyder team is out and
this stock now has a chance. Clearly, they are cutting fat and
starting to get the inventory thing straightened out which was the
failing of the last management team. Wouldn't be surprised by a very
positive quarter. People are still buying Crox and its not going away,
this stock is worth the risk. You're right building a worldwide brand
is a big part of the battle, you just don't throw that away, although
the last management team tried their best. I say, watch for $15 a
share.

On Sep 14, 10:59 am, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Raj  
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 More options Sep 22, 3:41 pm
From: Raj <rajkumar.ramalin...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:41:42 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, Sep 22 2009 3:41 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
I am really not sure if this stock is going to hit $15. What confuses
me is the steady increase in the stock price. I don't see any news
about Crocs. Still there is a increase by 2-5% everyday. Anybody knows
what is going on here?
This is my old post from last year when Crocs was going down.
http://lateinthearena.blogspot.com/2008/08/my-crocs-crox-saga.html

On Sep 21, 1:20 pm, Parlee <flo...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Mike  
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 More options Oct 8, 10:46 am
From: Mike <mike...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2009 07:46:50 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, Oct 8 2009 10:46 am
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
CROX was, and still is, driven by momentum.  It was driven way too
high (lord..remember the 70s) and way too low (down to $1).  With a
stock like this I think you need to accept that it is going to move
between extremes rather than settle nicely on fair value.  In this
thread I posted a link to my thoughts on why $8 per share is a good
near-term fair value price.  But longer term i think the potential is
there for the stock to go much higher.  Yes, the notion of rubber
shoes taking over the world is gone but the fact remains that they
make good shoes that fit several niches in the market.  As the company
has matured they have diversified away from just "clown shoes" to a
whole range of very comfortable and durable styles.

Yes, the inventory overhang has been brutal because the previous
management built out for a worldwide fad phenomenon that never quite
happened (at least not at the scale they thought it would).  I don't
fault them too hard because very few companies were prepared for the
near-depression that hit discretionary consumer goods PARTICULARLY
hard.  Some would argue, I would argue, that the fact that Crocs is
still even in business is a testament to the strength of their core
consumer base.  They survived a perfect storm of SHARPLY increased
fixed costs, sharply increased inventory and a simultaneous
vaporization of demand.  They were nimble enough to bring on a CEO who
"gets it".  I've listened to his CCs and he has absolutely no
illusions about what this company is and where its strengths/
weaknesses are.  That is refreshing because the last CEO was a little
slow to understand that he was driving the company into BK.

So, why is it going up?  Short covering, sure.  True believers, like
me.  And then just pure momentum players who are reading an attractive
chart and don't much care about the underlying company.  I don't think
I'd add to a position here but i would not sell either.  Incremental
improvements in the situation of the consumer only help CROX and if
the world economy is doing OK by the next summer season then we could
see some very favorable yr over yr comps.  Of course you need to be
able to think in terms of years and not days...but that is where the
true money is made.  People who can look 5 years down the line will
always have an edge on the "big guys" who have to think, at most, 3
months down the line.

Mike

On Sep 22, 3:41 pm, Raj <rajkumar.ramalin...@gmail.com> wrote:


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End of messages  

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