> I wrote this 6 months ago.  It is turning out to be spot on.  $8 price
> target reiterated.

> "There has been so much negativity surrounding this company and much
> of
> it is deserved.  The former CEO let inventory and overcapacity spin
> wildly out of control.  However, if you listen to the new CEO it
> sounds like he really gets it.

> Let's suppose a happy scenario where the consumer has decided not to
> cut footwear out of their budget.  So we see a sales figure in Q2 2010
> under Q2 2008 but let's say it comes in at 200mil.  Suppose we hold
> cost of revenue steady at 85 and SGA steady at 80.  That leaves us
> with roughly 45 mil in profit.  There are 84 million shares
> outstanding so that is 53 cents a share.

> Lets be generous and put a 15 PE on that and you get a PPS of $8.  And
> that would be for just one quarter.  Further it only implies a 15% ROE
> (assuming that it is the ONLY profitable quarter).

> In short, I think the pessimism is overdone if one takes a slightly
> longer view.  The fact that revenue didn't fall off a cliff in Q1 was,
> for me, very bullish.  It suggests that the core audience is still
> there. "

> I don't think anyone selling this morning actually listened to the
> conference call. - they just saw the Bloomberg headline and got
> scared.
> I am both sickened by the price decline this morning and elated. I
> hedged yesterday before earnings to reduce my risk and am buying this
> morning on this absurd dip.
> The made a profit in Q3! Their revenue guidance for Q4 was a penny or
> two below their earlier estimates.  IThere's no way those numbers
> suggest a 17% drop in pps.

> On Nov 5, 4:30 pm, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I wrote this 6 months ago.  It is turning out to be spot on.  $8 price
> > target reiterated.

> > "There has been so much negativity surrounding this company and much
> > of
> > it is deserved.  The former CEO let inventory and overcapacity spin
> > wildly out of control.  However, if you listen to the new CEO it
> > sounds like he really gets it.

> > Let's suppose a happy scenario where the consumer has decided not to
> > cut footwear out of their budget.  So we see a sales figure in Q2 2010
> > under Q2 2008 but let's say it comes in at 200mil.  Suppose we hold
> > cost of revenue steady at 85 and SGA steady at 80.  That leaves us
> > with roughly 45 mil in profit.  There are 84 million shares
> > outstanding so that is 53 cents a share.

> > Lets be generous and put a 15 PE on that and you get a PPS of $8.  And
> > that would be for just one quarter.  Further it only implies a 15% ROE
> > (assuming that it is the ONLY profitable quarter).

> > In short, I think the pessimism is overdone if one takes a slightly
> > longer view.  The fact that revenue didn't fall off a cliff in Q1 was,
> > for me, very bullish.  It suggests that the core audience is still
> > there. "