> My personal price target is $8.  Anything below that I consider
> undervalued.  I would not be surprised to see it go to $10 but I think
> we'd need some upside surprises to get there and that is almost surely
> not going to happen until 2010.

> The snapback rally today indicates that CROX isn't quite dead in the
> water.  I think a lot of people have done the same analysis I have and
> it is hard to escape the fact that 2010Q2 will be a huge quarter.  The
> trend of sales is steady and the costs are plummeting.  That is a
> recipe for profitability.  If you throw in some sales GROWTH and the
> whole picture changes.  Then $10-20 ps is absolutely possible.
> Basically the company is set up now to have the top line filter down
> quite nicely to the bottom line.

> Q4 will be rough, so it is a fine time to accumulate if you agree with
> this thesis.

> On Nov 10, 7:39 pm, Adapting <adapt...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

> > I'm with you Mike. I am both long and trade this stock.  I got stuck
> > with some shares that I overpaid last week, but I also heard the
> > conference call and was made very optimistic by just about everything
> > I heard.
> > Kids love these shoes because they're light and they don't have laces.
> > Kids don't care what they look like. Parnts like the because they're
> > cheap and easy.
> >  I hope this stock will be worth twice it's current pps in a year -
> > and more if the earnings come in better than I think.
> > My only fear is that the beta is going to get kicked out of this
> > stock. Sometimes these rapid price declines kind of leave it kicking
> > around in the gutter a while.
> >  This will make it harder for me to average down,
> > High risk stocks and a lot of financials have really been rolled in
> > this rally. I should have taken a vacation in August I guess.
> > I am prepared to go deep if the shorts send this under $4.40 again.

> > On Nov 10, 9:45 am, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Looks like it is going to dip into ridiculously oversold territory
> > > again.

> > > CROX!  Man this is one that really tests you.  I recently rebalanced
> > > my portfolio and I kept CROX primarily because I think it will turn to
> > > profitability in 2010 and this level will be a distant memory.

> > > I think the core business is strong, the brand is worldwide, and
> > > overseas sales are continuing to grow.  The inventory problem has, for
> > > the most part, been dealt with.  But in many ways none of that matters
> > > when a stock has a beta like CROX does.

> > > So, how strong is your conviction?  If you are long are you going to
> > > get shaken out on this dive?  Tis true that nothing hurts more than
> > > losing money in a bull market.

> I'm with you Mike. I am both long and trade this stock.  I got stuck
> with some shares that I overpaid last week, but I also heard the
> conference call and was made very optimistic by just about everything
> I heard.
> Kids love these shoes because they're light and they don't have laces.
> Kids don't care what they look like. Parnts like the because they're
> cheap and easy.
>  I hope this stock will be worth twice it's current pps in a year -
> and more if the earnings come in better than I think.
> My only fear is that the beta is going to get kicked out of this
> stock. Sometimes these rapid price declines kind of leave it kicking
> around in the gutter a while.
>  This will make it harder for me to average down,
> High risk stocks and a lot of financials have really been rolled in
> this rally. I should have taken a vacation in August I guess.
> I am prepared to go deep if the shorts send this under $4.40 again.

> On Nov 10, 9:45 am, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Looks like it is going to dip into ridiculously oversold territory
> > again.

> > CROX!  Man this is one that really tests you.  I recently rebalanced
> > my portfolio and I kept CROX primarily because I think it will turn to
> > profitability in 2010 and this level will be a distant memory.

> > I think the core business is strong, the brand is worldwide, and
> > overseas sales are continuing to grow.  The inventory problem has, for
> > the most part, been dealt with.  But in many ways none of that matters
> > when a stock has a beta like CROX does.

> > So, how strong is your conviction?  If you are long are you going to
> > get shaken out on this dive?  Tis true that nothing hurts more than
> > losing money in a bull market.

> Looks like it is going to dip into ridiculously oversold territory
> again.

> CROX!  Man this is one that really tests you.  I recently rebalanced
> my portfolio and I kept CROX primarily because I think it will turn to
> profitability in 2010 and this level will be a distant memory.

> I think the core business is strong, the brand is worldwide, and
> overseas sales are continuing to grow.  The inventory problem has, for
> the most part, been dealt with.  But in many ways none of that matters
> when a stock has a beta like CROX does.

> So, how strong is your conviction?  If you are long are you going to
> get shaken out on this dive?  Tis true that nothing hurts more than
> losing money in a bull market.

> Me too. Jumped in a little early though. I see support at $6 after the
> debris lands.

> On Nov 6, 8:19 am, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > shhhh...I'm accumulating today...

> > On Nov 6, 10:55 am, Adapting <adapt...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

> > > Funny how the one analyst who was at the conference call reiterates
> > > his overweight rating on the company. This headline somehow didn't
> > > make it the forefront somehow.- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> shhhh...I'm accumulating today...

> On Nov 6, 10:55 am, Adapting <adapt...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

> > Funny how the one analyst who was at the conference call reiterates
> > his overweight rating on the company. This headline somehow didn't
> > make it the forefront somehow.

> Funny how the one analyst who was at the conference call reiterates
> his overweight rating on the company. This headline somehow didn't
> make it the forefront somehow.

> I don't think anyone selling this morning actually listened to the
> conference call. - they just saw the Bloomberg headline and got
> scared.
> I am both sickened by the price decline this morning and elated. I
> hedged yesterday before earnings to reduce my risk and am buying this
> morning on this absurd dip.
> The made a profit in Q3! Their revenue guidance for Q4 was a penny or
> two below their earlier estimates.  IThere's no way those numbers
> suggest a 17% drop in pps.

> On Nov 5, 4:30 pm, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I wrote this 6 months ago.  It is turning out to be spot on.  $8 price
> > target reiterated.

> > "There has been so much negativity surrounding this company and much
> > of
> > it is deserved.  The former CEO let inventory and overcapacity spin
> > wildly out of control.  However, if you listen to the new CEO it
> > sounds like he really gets it.

> > Let's suppose a happy scenario where the consumer has decided not to
> > cut footwear out of their budget.  So we see a sales figure in Q2 2010
> > under Q2 2008 but let's say it comes in at 200mil.  Suppose we hold
> > cost of revenue steady at 85 and SGA steady at 80.  That leaves us
> > with roughly 45 mil in profit.  There are 84 million shares
> > outstanding so that is 53 cents a share.

> > Lets be generous and put a 15 PE on that and you get a PPS of $8.  And
> > that would be for just one quarter.  Further it only implies a 15% ROE
> > (assuming that it is the ONLY profitable quarter).

> > In short, I think the pessimism is overdone if one takes a slightly
> > longer view.  The fact that revenue didn't fall off a cliff in Q1 was,
> > for me, very bullish.  It suggests that the core audience is still
> > there. "