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Message from discussion Running like the glory days
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tdskier  
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 More options Sep 14 2009, 2:48 pm
From: tdskier <tdsk...@hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:48:27 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 14 2009 2:48 pm
Subject: Re: Running like the glory days
So as I am holding CROX at 3.60 I am thinking it about time to sell
out.. You are thinking $8? I wonder what will push it there.

On Sep 14, 12:59 pm, Mike <mike...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm sure some of us remember the run up to 70.  Seems like every day
> was a new 52 week high.

> Now CROX is doing it again as it powers through level after level
> without much in the way of new news.  Short covering, sure, but I
> doubt that accounts for all of the move.  Some momo players, of
> course.  Personally I think some investors just decided that a brand
> with a global presence is worth something.  Love them or hate them
> virtually the entire world is aware of the Crocs brand.  There is also
> a core constituency of buyers who will continue to buy new pairs of
> Crocs because they use them on the job.

> If you bought at 70 then this is obviously still a very broken stock.
> but the company itself has shown that it has staying power.  I think
> some people thought it was going to go back down to 20 mil in sales
> and then go away completely.  It hasn't turned out that way and if you
> were paying attention you'd know that was very unlikely.  The core
> audience for Crocs is showing just how strong they are as Summer sales
> held up despite a severe worldwide recession/depression (particularly
> for discretionary consumer items).  That shows a company that is doing
> a lot of things right.

> I think the near term fair value is about 8$ a share.  Sadly that is
> WAY below what my cost basis (by about 1/2) is but I think that number
> can go up very quickly if the world economy turns toward growth
> again.  I'm probably a buyer on the next dip after the large loss
> coming in the next 10Q.


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