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Message from discussion Running like the glory days
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Mike  
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 More options Sep 14 2009, 12:59 pm
From: Mike <mike...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:59:44 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Sep 14 2009 12:59 pm
Subject: Running like the glory days
I'm sure some of us remember the run up to 70.  Seems like every day
was a new 52 week high.

Now CROX is doing it again as it powers through level after level
without much in the way of new news.  Short covering, sure, but I
doubt that accounts for all of the move.  Some momo players, of
course.  Personally I think some investors just decided that a brand
with a global presence is worth something.  Love them or hate them
virtually the entire world is aware of the Crocs brand.  There is also
a core constituency of buyers who will continue to buy new pairs of
Crocs because they use them on the job.

If you bought at 70 then this is obviously still a very broken stock.
but the company itself has shown that it has staying power.  I think
some people thought it was going to go back down to 20 mil in sales
and then go away completely.  It hasn't turned out that way and if you
were paying attention you'd know that was very unlikely.  The core
audience for Crocs is showing just how strong they are as Summer sales
held up despite a severe worldwide recession/depression (particularly
for discretionary consumer items).  That shows a company that is doing
a lot of things right.

I think the near term fair value is about 8$ a share.  Sadly that is
WAY below what my cost basis (by about 1/2) is but I think that number
can go up very quickly if the world economy turns toward growth
again.  I'm probably a buyer on the next dip after the large loss
coming in the next 10Q.


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