CSIQ is trading below it's book value of equity...at least the last
reported BVE, which is certainly a little out of date, seeing as we
didn't get Q1 results released on time. Essentially this means that if
the company liquidated at this moment (sold all assets and turned
everything into cash), then paid off all of its debts and obligations,
the shareholders would expect to receive a higher value for each of
their shares than the current trading price.
The last reported BVE = $496.18 million (as of end of 2009)
BVE per share of common = $496.18 / 42mm = $11.82
Current share price = $9.90, which implies a market cap of $415.8
So if the company stopped operations, liquidated its assets, and paid
of its debts, each shareholder could expect to get about $11.82 per
share, which implies a current undervaluation of nearly 20%.
Most companies trade at premium to BVE, because there is value outside
of simply cash, PPE, inventory, investments, etc. The intangibles are
people, knowledge, and the company's ability to use its assets to
generate a return in the future (i.e. future value). If you examine
any typical stock (GE, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, RCL etc.) you will find that
their market cap well exceeds their book value - the market is pricing
future value into the current share price.
This is not the case, however, with CSIQ. Due to lawsuits, the SEC
investigation (and delayed financials), and an otherwise poor broader
market and economic data, the share price has been hammered. There is
obviously still uncertainty regarding the outcome of this
investigation, whether the stated revenues are "correct" and the
potential legal damage from these lawsuits, which poses a high risk,
warranting a lower valuation. However, given the CEO's remarks
regarding the higher orders, especially in the second half of this
year, and their goal of complying with the investigation, it appears
CSIQ may be a good value play at this time. Once the smoke clears on
this investigation and the financial numbers are released, depending
on the results, this stock could bounce back to prior, more accurate
valuation levels. If there is not a huge discrepancy in the revenue
recognition policy and the Q1 #'s are sound, the potential return here
could be worth your while.
Just my thoughts at the moment. Feel free to comment.
DISCLOSURE: Accumulating at prices below $10.00