A few notes:
- With the share sales deal, GOFH has basically shot itself in the
foot as far as NASDAQ is concerned. It has gone from a $122 million
market cap company to a $26 million market cap company now...Its
shares have lost 83% of their value from earlier highs. GOFH has also
shot itself in the foot regarding shareholders who will be upset at
being treated so badly.
- The need to sell more stocks under such draconian bargain-basement
terms (for the company) suggests that the firm is NOT able to achieve
a good credit line from major banks, in contrast to other firms like
IRBT (see IRBT's credit line acquisition here:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/19/ap3837563.html )
- GOFH's revenue model is questionable at best. Looking through the
site, I can't see how they plan to start earning revenue except for
the occasional banner ad. Of course, search engines generate far more
banner ad traffic -- and the product they offer (search) is not nearly
as costly or memory-intensive as GOFH's videos. I really cannot
determine how they plan to become profitable.
But...people said that about youtube, yahoo, google, etc...
- Looking at the bright side, GOFH is clearly gaining ground on its
most prominent competitor, METACAFE.COM. Metacafe was sold to a
private equity group for $200 million last December, if I recall.
GOFH has nearly half the traffic of metacafe.com and is steadily
gaining. Metacafe.com uses a very similar revenue model to GOFH. If
GOFH's traffic is worth as much per visitor as metacafe is, this would
mean that GOFH has about a $100 million value. Even after the new
shares issued in their private financing deal, that would put the
value of GOFH shares at about $3.75 each. And that doesn't even
include the value of bolt.com that GOFH recently acquired. So the
current prices around $1.10-$1.30 are very, very conservative and
offer a good entry point for those considering GOFH. There is still
lots of buffer for risk built into the current stock price.
On the down side, GOFH's content may cost more to produce than that of
other sites because they make more original videos. I suspect that
they will be cash-strapped for a long time. On the plus side, they
are attracting increasing amounts of user generated content, have good
distribution deals with other firms, and their original content can
give them an added draw.